Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for David Montgomery is Over 29.5 on Rushing Yards (Alt).
On Rushing Yards (Alt), our numbers say this bet wins about 85 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 85%, the price says 81%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 30, 8:35PM UTC
NFL
David Montgomery
HOU
David Montgomery has one live pick today: Rushing Yards (Alt) Over 29.5 that pays $124 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.
Latest Model Pick
Rushing Yards (Alt)
Over 29.5
-417 (1.24) · $100→$124
Value call
Dallas Cowboys
@
Houston Texans
Houston · Indoor
Sun 4 Oct, 5:00PM
The recordWhen our formula calls nfl alternate team total points overs: 491 of 840 rightToday’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
UNKNOWNSeason pending
Montgomery rushed 11 times for 33 yards while catching both of his targets for 15 yards in Sunday's 19-17 loss to the Colts.
updated Sep 27, 9:57PM UTC · 2d old
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss.
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How often this wins
85 in 100
Predicted
46.5 Rushing Yards (Alt)
See the numbers
For the numbers: our chance 84.8% · the book's price implies 80.7% · gap +4.2%.
| Market | Model | Model probability | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Rushing Yards (Alt) | 84.8% | — | 80.7% | 1.24 | +4.2% |
Which of this player’s bets is worth taking?
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David Montgomery (HOU) Over 29.5 Player rush yds alternate (-417)
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing
Houston Texans play Dallas Cowboys in the NFL on Sunday 4 October 2026. The bet we are looking at is David Montgomery (HOU) Over 29.5 Player rush yds alternate. It was priced at -417 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $12.40 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
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David Montgomery's lines for Sun 4 Oct
Every market the books have posted for him, with the best price we can find, how often he has cleared the line lately, and his last 10 games on tap. Which side the model backs on each is for Pro members.
Rushing Yards (Alt) 29.5
David Montgomery's rushing yards (alt) line is 29.5.
Rushing Yards (Alt) 24.5
David Montgomery's rushing yards (alt) line is 24.5.
Rushing Yards (Alt) 19.5
David Montgomery's rushing yards (alt) line is 19.5.
Rushing Yards 49.5
David Montgomery's rushing yards line is 49.5.
Rushing Yards 48.5
David Montgomery's rushing yards line is 48.5.
Rushing Attempts (Alt) 17.5
David Montgomery's rushing attempts (alt) line is 17.5.
Rushing Attempts (Alt) 15.5
David Montgomery's rushing attempts (alt) line is 15.5.
Rushing Attempts (Alt) 13.5
David Montgomery's rushing attempts (alt) line is 13.5.
Betting angles
3 markets liveReceptionsNext game · Dallas CowboysO 2.5 +247 2.5posted line · receptions
David Montgomery has a live NFL receptions market for Dallas Cowboys: over 2.5 receptions priced at +247.
Rushing YardsNext game · Dallas CowboysU 49.5 -114 49.5posted line · rushing yds
David Montgomery has a live NFL rushing yards market for Dallas Cowboys: under 49.5 rushing yds priced at -114.
Receiving YardsNext game · Dallas CowboysU 10.5 -112 10.5posted line · receiving yds
David Montgomery has a live NFL receiving yards market for Dallas Cowboys: under 10.5 receiving yds priced at -112.
Anytime TD5 lines trackedNo line posted
50%model anytime-TD prob
tips tracked5
David Montgomery's NFL anytime td prop has been priced 5 times, with a modelled anytime-touchdown probability near 50%. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.
| Date | Matchup | Market | Line | Pick | Odds (US) | Result |
|---|
| 20 Sep 26 |
Cincinnati Bengals @ Houston Texans |
Receiving Yards (Alt) |
4.5 |
Over |
-323 |
✓ HIT |
| 20 Sep 26 |
Cincinnati Bengals @ Houston Texans |
Receptions (Alt) |
0.5 |
Over |
-833 |
✓ HIT |
| 20 Sep 26 |
Cincinnati Bengals @ Houston Texans |
Receptions (Alt) |
1.5 |
Over |
-182 |
✓ HIT |
| 20 Sep 26 |
Cincinnati Bengals @ Houston Texans |
Receiving Yards (Alt) |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
| 20 Sep 26 |
Cincinnati Bengals @ Houston Texans |
Receiving Yards (Alt) |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
| 20 Sep 26 |
Cincinnati Bengals @ Houston Texans |
Receiving Yards (Alt) |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
See the complete track record
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David Montgomery (HOU) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for David Montgomery is Over 29.5 on Rushing Yards (Alt). The model identifies a slight edge of +4.2% on this pick. Their next game is Dallas Cowboys vs Houston Texans on Sunday 4 October at Houston. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.
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