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The latest Bet Better model pick for David Montgomery is Under 12.5 on Receiving Yards.
On the Receiving Yards market the model assigns a model win probability of 54%, versus the book's implied 53%, for a model edge of +1.6%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 1:04PM UTC
NFL

David Montgomery

DET

+1.6% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Receiving Yards Under 12.5 -112 (1.89)
+1.6% Edge
Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions
Detroit · Indoor
No injury designationSeason pending
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
54.5%
Implied Probability
52.9%
Model Edge
+1.6%
Predicted Value
—

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Receiving Yards54.5%—52.9%1.84+1.6%

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AI Analysis

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David Montgomery (DET) Under 12.5 Receiving Yards (-112)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

Betting under 12.5 on David Montgomery's reception yards is statistically backed by his recent performance and trends. Montgomery has consistently failed to hit this mark in his recent games. Over his last 5 games, he hasn't outperformed this market even once, showing a 0/5 overall hit rate. His record against the Chicago Bears, both at home and away, is equally unpromising with a 0/3 hit rate. Even when expanding the scope to his last 20 games, his success rate is low, with only 4 hits. His lack of success in this specific market is emphasized by his current hit streak of 0. Considering these numbers, it seems statistically unlikely that Montgomery will exceed 12.5 reception yards in the upcoming game against the Detroit Lions. Betting under 12.5 is therefore a data-driven decision.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Receiving Yards14 lines trackedNo line posted
12.5typical line · receiving yds
line range6.5–19.5tips tracked14

David Montgomery's NFL receiving yards prop has been priced 14 times, typically around a 12.5 receiving yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Anytime TD5 lines trackedNo line posted
50%model anytime-TD prob
tips tracked5

David Montgomery's NFL anytime td prop has been priced 5 times, with a modelled anytime-touchdown probability near 50%. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Receptions2 lines trackedNo line posted
1.5typical line · receptions
line range1.5–1.5tips tracked2

David Montgomery's NFL receptions prop has been priced 2 times, typically around a 1.5 receptions line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

David Montgomery (DET) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for David Montgomery is Under 12.5 on Receiving Yards. The model identifies a slight edge of +1.6% on this pick. Their next game is Chicago Bears vs Detroit Lions at Detroit. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.

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