Bet Better BET BETTER PRO
Log in
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for David Montgomery is Under 12.5 on Receiving Yards.
On Receiving Yards, our numbers say this bet wins about 54 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 54%, implied 53%, edge +1.0%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 8:06AM UTC
NFL

David Montgomery

DET

+1.0% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Receiving Yards Under 12.5 -111 (1.90) · $100→$190
+1.0% Edge
Dallas Cowboys @ Detroit Lions
Detroit · Indoor
No injury designationSeason pending
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
A lean, not a lock
How often this wins
54 in 100
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 53.6% · the book's price implies 52.6% · gap +1.0%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Receiving Yards53.6%—52.6%1.86+1.0%

Which of this player’s bets is worth taking?

The model grades every market on this player and shows you the ones it backs — in plain English, with how much to bet.

Bet Better Unlock All Markets
$4.14 a day on the weekly plan ($29/wk) — less than one $50 bet · cancel anytime

AI Analysis

SUBSCRIBERS

David Montgomery (DET) Under 12.5 Receiving Yards (-111)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The bet on David Montgomery for Under 12.5 in the 'player_reception_yds' market for the Detroit Lions vs Dallas Cowboys game seems like a reasonable pick considering Montgomery's recent performance. Analyzing his hit rate, it's evident that he's been underperforming. His overall hit rate for the last 3, 5, 10, and 20 games is 0, 0, 0, and 0 respectively. Even his performance at home isn't encouraging with a hit rate of 0 in the last 3, 5, and 10 home games. Although he has a positive hit rate of 2/3 against the Cowboys, his overall and current home hit streaks stand at 0, indicating a lack of consistency. Therefore, based on these statistics, betting Under 12.5 for Montgomery's reception yards seems a plausible choice.

Unlock the full breakdown

See the model's complete reasoning behind this pick — the match-up read, the key numbers and how sure it is — plus full analysis on every game.

Bet Better Unlock Full Analysis
Cancel anytime

Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Receiving Yards14 lines trackedNo line posted
12.5typical line · receiving yds
line range6.5–19.5tips tracked14

David Montgomery's NFL receiving yards prop has been priced 14 times, typically around a 12.5 receiving yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Anytime TD5 lines trackedNo line posted
50%model anytime-TD prob
tips tracked5

David Montgomery's NFL anytime td prop has been priced 5 times, with a modelled anytime-touchdown probability near 50%. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Receptions2 lines trackedNo line posted
1.5typical line · receptions
line range1.5–1.5tips tracked2

David Montgomery's NFL receptions prop has been priced 2 times, typically around a 1.5 receptions line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

See the complete track record

Unlock every graded pick for this player — full dates, lines, odds and results — across the whole season.

Bet Better Unlock Full History
Cancel anytime

About This Player

David Montgomery (DET) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for David Montgomery is Under 12.5 on Receiving Yards. The model identifies a slight edge of +1.0% on this pick. Their next game is Dallas Cowboys vs Detroit Lions at Detroit. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

Today's selected board

See the plays that cleared the model's filter today

See today's picks

Get tomorrow's free pick by email

Free. One email a day, tops. Unsubscribe in one tap.

18+ only. Please gamble responsibly.

Bet Better is not a bookmaker and does not accept wagers. Information is for educational purposes only. Gamble responsibly — only bet what you can afford to lose. 18+. National Gambling Helpline 1800 858 858. If betting stops being fun, take a break — see our responsible gambling resources.

Get tomorrow's free pick by email

Free. One email a day, tops. Unsubscribe in one tap.

18+ only. Please gamble responsibly.