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Model picks & player props
Houston Texans
VS
Jacksonville Jaguars

Houston Texans vs Jacksonville Jaguars Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 31, 8:13PM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

NFL
Jacksonville
Sun 21 Sep 2025, 5:00PM
2
Game markets graded
0
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Jacksonville Jaguars -7.5 Spread -104

The model graded 2 markets for Houston Texans vs Jacksonville Jaguars (NFL) and this is the one it backs hardest — HIGH confidence. A $100 bet returns about $196 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Sun 21 Sep 2025, 5:00PM at Jacksonville.

Our confidenceHigh
Chance to win63.0%
The price says51.0%
Best price-104
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Spread Jacksonville Jaguars -7.5 High63% chance -104
Spread High63% chance —
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%
Every NFL game on today's board →
This game is done — from the model’s graded calls on this game
Trevor Lawrence Over 8.5 · $100 returned $191

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Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Spread
Jacksonville Jaguars
-6.5
-130
+ 1 more market
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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
Jacksonville JaguarsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Jacksonville JaguarsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

Pro shows you, in plain English, how far each price is off — and how much to put on it. No maths needed on your side.

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Houston Texans

  • M.J. Stewart SOut
  • E.J. Speed LBOut
  • Ali Gaye DEOut
  • Ja'Marcus Ingram CBOut
  • Tank Dell WROut
  • Jadeveon Clowney DEQuestionable
  • Braden Smith OTQuestionable
  • Dylan Horton DEOut
  • Marte Mapu LBOut
  • Wade Woodaz LBQuestionable
  • British Brooks RBQuestionable
  • K.C. Ossai LBOut
  • Jayden Higgins WROut
  • Jaylin Noel WRQuestionable
  • Graham Mertz QBOut

Jacksonville Jaguars

  • Sam Mustipher COut
  • Patrick Mekari GOut
  • Zach Durfee DEOut
  • Brian Thomas Jr. WRQuestionable
  • Jakobi Meyers WRQuestionable
  • Parker Hughes LBOut
  • Wyatt Milum GQuestionable
  • LeQuint Allen Jr. RBQuestionable
  • Jared Bartlett LBOut
  • Garrett DiGiorgio OTOut
Availability updated Aug 31, 5:06PM UTC — NFL availability is season-pending (off-season); treat as a placeholder until the season opens. · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Houston Texans vs Jacksonville Jaguars: Played outdoors, so keep an eye on wind and cold closer to kickoff, and 25 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Roof / venueopen-air outdoor
Surfacenatural grass
Availability25 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: sustained wind above ~15 mph and hard cold both drag NFL totals and kicking numbers down, while a key skill-position player being out shifts target and touch share to his backups.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

See the weather- and injury-adjusted projected line and the model's with/without delta for this fixture. 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineJacksonville Jaguars to winNo line posted

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Houston Texans moneyline — the live line, our model's read and how the free board has gone so far, tracked every game week on BetBetter.

Point SpreadJacksonville Jaguars spreadNo line posted

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Houston Texans spread — the live line, our model's read and how the free board has gone so far, tracked every game week on BetBetter.

Total PointsTexans @ JaguarsNo line posted

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Houston Texans game total — the live line, our model's read and how the free board has gone so far, tracked every game week on BetBetter.

Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars — what the model found

Our model graded 2 betting markets for Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars — 2 on the game itself and 0 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

2
Game markets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 2 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 1 graded call for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Houston Texans vs Jacksonville Jaguars — recent results

Jacksonville Jaguars have won 3 of their last 5 games; Houston Texans have won 1 of their last 5.

Jacksonville Jaguars — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W19–0TBHome
L17–34CARHome
W24–20NOAway
L24–27BUFHome
W41–7TENHome
Houston Texans — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L13–16CARAway
L20–22LVHome
L7–27LACHome
L16–28NEAway
W30–6PITAway

Who’s out or in doubt

25 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Jacksonville Jaguars
PlayerStatus
Sam Mustipher COUT
Patrick Mekari GOUT
Zach Durfee DEOUT
Brian Thomas Jr. WRQUESTIONABLE
Jakobi Meyers WRQUESTIONABLE
Parker Hughes LBOUT
Wyatt Milum GQUESTIONABLE
LeQuint Allen Jr. RBQUESTIONABLE
Houston Texans
PlayerStatus
M.J. Stewart SOUT
E.J. Speed LBOUT
Ali Gaye DEOUT
Ja'Marcus Ingram CBOUT
Tank Dell WROUT
Jadeveon Clowney DEQUESTIONABLE
Braden Smith OTQUESTIONABLE
Dylan Horton DEOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Cashed picks for this matchup

From the public log
DateMarketPickResult
21 Sep 25 Spread Jacksonville Jaguars -6.5 ✓ HIT

Every pick — wins and losses — is logged on the public record.

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Houston Texans vs Jacksonville Jaguars in the NFL. You may also see this matchup written as Texans vs Jaguars, or as Jaguars vs Texans. The most recent game between them was Sunday 21 September 2025 at Jacksonville. The model has generated 2 game picks for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your NFL betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Final scores · 22 meetings on record
Houston Texans 17–5 across the last 22 meetings · these games average 40.7 points (meetings on record since 2015)
DateGameScoreWinner
9 Nov 2025Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans36–29Houston Texans
21 Sep 2025Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars17–10Jacksonville Jaguars
1 Dec 2024Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars20–23Houston Texans
29 Sep 2024Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans24–20Houston Texans
26 Nov 2023Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans21–24Jacksonville Jaguars
24 Sep 2023Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars17–37Houston Texans
1 Jan 2023Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans3–31Jacksonville Jaguars
9 Oct 2022Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars6–13Houston Texans
19 Dec 2021Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars16–30Houston Texans
12 Sep 2021Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans37–21Houston Texans

Table shows the last 10 — the record above counts all 22 meetings on file.

Today's selected board

See the plays that cleared the model's filter today

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