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Model picks & player props
NFL
Buffalo
Sun 4 Oct 2026, 1:00 PM ET
New England Patriots
VS
Buffalo Bills

New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills Prediction & Picks

Our model graded 70 markets for New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills and backs New England Patriots hardest, a long shot, and $100 on it returns about $350.

20
Game markets graded
50
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first Free
New England Patriots
to win
New England Patriots Moneyline
You bet$10 If it wins$35.00Best price+250
Our confidenceLong-shot
Chance to win26.1%
The price says27.4%

The model graded 70 markets for New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills (NFL) and this is the one it backs hardest — a long shot. A $100 bet returns about $350 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Sun 4 Oct 2026, 1:00 PM ET at Buffalo.

This game's bets

The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Moneyline New England Patriots Long-shot26% chance +250
Spread Members only Lean51% chance Members
Team Totals Q1 Members only Lean52% chance Members
Spreads Q2 Members only Lean48% chance Members
Alternate Team Total Points Members only Lean41% chance Members
Alternate Team Totals H1 Members only Long-shot37% chance Members
Moneyline Q2 Members only Long-shot34% chance Members
Alternate Spreads H1 Members only Long-shot40% chance Members
Moneyline H1 Members only Long-shot30% chance Members
Receiving Yards (Alt) × 4 props Highup to 98% Members
Receiving Yards × 8 props Highup to 72% Members
Rushing Yards × 3 props Highup to 73% Members
Rush + Rec Yards × 4 props Highup to 71% Members
Receptions (Alt) × 4 props Leanup to 47% Members
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%
Every NFL game on today's board →

New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills last met on Sun 4 Oct 2026: New England Patriots won 29-26. Their next game gets a fresh preview here the moment it is priced. Today's board: every NFL game priced right now.

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Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Moneyline
New England Patriots
+250
+ 19 more markets
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All 20 game markets and 50 player props for this matchup — every line, every call the model backs — plus every pick across the slate. Join 67,149+ members.

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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
New England PatriotsMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New England PatriotsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New England PatriotsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Totals Q1The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New England PatriotsSpreads Q2The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam Totals Q1The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderAlternate Team Total PointsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderAlternate Team Totals H1The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New England PatriotsMoneyline Q2The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderAlternate Team Total PointsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New England PatriotsAlternate Spreads H1The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New England PatriotsAlternate Spreads H1The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderAlternate Team Total PointsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderAlternate Team Total PointsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New England PatriotsMoneyline H1The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New England PatriotsAlternate Spreads H1The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderAlternate Team Total PointsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderAlternate Team Total PointsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New England PatriotsAlternate Spreads H1The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderAlternate Team Totals H1The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

Pro shows you, in plain English, how far each price is off — and how much to put on it. No maths needed on your side.

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

New England Patriots

  • Rhamondre Stevenson RBQuestionable
  • Reggie Gilliam FBOut
  • Mack Hollins WROut
  • Charles Woods CBQuestionable
  • Karon Prunty CBOut
  • Channing Canada CBOut
  • Craig Woodson SQuestionable
  • Dre'Mont Jones DEQuestionable
  • Christian Elliss LBQuestionable
  • Christian Barmore DTQuestionable
  • Christian Gonzalez CBOut
  • Carlton Davis III CBOut
  • Morgan Moses OTQuestionable
  • A.J. Brown WROut

Buffalo Bills

  • Landon Jackson DEQuestionable
  • Dee Alford CBQuestionable
  • Ed Oliver DTOut
  • DJ Moore WRQuestionable
  • Joshua Palmer WROut
  • Te'Cory Couch CBQuestionable
Availability updated Oct 11, 11:21AM UTC — NFL availability is season-pending (off-season); treat as a placeholder until the season opens. · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills: Outdoors with 2 mph wind, 14°F — stronger wind and cold both nudge totals and the kicking game down, and 20 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Roof / venueopen-air outdoor
Surfaceartificial turf
Wind2 mph
Temperature14°F
Availability20 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: sustained wind above ~15 mph and hard cold both drag NFL totals and kicking numbers down, while a key skill-position player being out shifts target and touch share to his backups.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

See the weather- and injury-adjusted projected line and the model's with/without delta for this fixture. 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Keon Coleman BUF Receiving Yards (Alt)
Keon Coleman BUF Receiving Yards
James Cook BUF Rushing Yards
Ty Johnson BUF Rush + Rec Yards
Kyle Williams NE Receptions (Alt)

+ 50 player props graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineNew England Patriots to winNo line posted

New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills moneyline — the live line, our model's read and how the free board has gone so far, tracked every game week on BetBetter.

Point SpreadNew England Patriots spreadNo line posted

New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills spread — the live line, our model's read and how the free board has gone so far, tracked every game week on BetBetter.

Total PointsPatriots @ BillsNo line posted

Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots game total — the live line, our model's read and how the free board has gone so far, tracked every game week on BetBetter.

New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills — what the model found

Our model graded 70 betting markets for New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills — 20 on the game itself and 50 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
50
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 70 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 69 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills — recent results

Buffalo Bills have won 4 of their last 5 games; New England Patriots have won 2 of their last 5.

Buffalo Bills — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L26–29NEHome
W24–16LACHome
W41–31DETHome
W36–31HOUAway
W28–27PITHome
New England Patriots — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W29–26BUFAway
L6–35JAXAway
W20–3PITHome
L10–13SEAAway
L13–37CLEAway

New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills — recent meetings

These two have met 1 time recently: Buffalo Bills won 0, New England Patriots won 1.

DateBuffalo BillsNew England PatriotsWinner
Oct 42629New England Patriots

Who’s out or in doubt

20 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Buffalo Bills
PlayerStatus
Landon Jackson DEQUESTIONABLE
Dee Alford CBQUESTIONABLE
Ed Oliver DTOUT
DJ Moore WRQUESTIONABLE
Joshua Palmer WROUT
Te'Cory Couch CBQUESTIONABLE
New England Patriots
PlayerStatus
Rhamondre Stevenson RBQUESTIONABLE
Reggie Gilliam FBOUT
Mack Hollins WROUT
Charles Woods CBQUESTIONABLE
Karon Prunty CBOUT
Channing Canada CBOUT
Craig Woodson SQUESTIONABLE
Dre'Mont Jones DEQUESTIONABLE

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills in the NFL. You may also see this matchup written as Patriots vs Bills, or as Bills vs Patriots. The most recent game between them was Sunday 4 October 2026 at Buffalo. The model has generated 20 game picks and 50 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your NFL betting strategy for this matchup.

New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills head-to-head record

Final scores · 24 meetings on record
New England Patriots 14–10 across the last 24 meetings · these games average 44.8 points (meetings on record since 2015)

Last meeting: Sun 4 Oct 2026, New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills: the Patriots won 29-26.

DateGameScoreWinner
4 Oct 2026New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills26–29New England Patriots
14 Dec 2025Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots31–35Buffalo Bills
5 Oct 2025New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills20–23New England Patriots
5 Jan 2025Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots23–16New England Patriots
22 Dec 2024New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills24–21Buffalo Bills
31 Dec 2023New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills27–21Buffalo Bills
22 Oct 2023Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots29–25New England Patriots
8 Jan 2023New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills35–23Buffalo Bills
1 Dec 2022Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots10–24Buffalo Bills
15 Jan 2022New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills47–17Buffalo Bills

Table shows the last 10 — the record above counts all 24 meetings on file.

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Today's selected board

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