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Model picks & player props
NFL
Buffalo
Sun 4 Oct 2026, 1:00 PM ET
New England Patriots
VS
Buffalo Bills

New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills Prediction & Picks

Our model graded 70 markets for New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills and backs New England Patriots hardest, a long shot, and $100 on it returns about $350.

20
Game markets graded
50
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first Free
New England Patriots
to win
New England Patriots Moneyline
You bet$10 If it wins$35.00Best price+250
Our confidenceLong-shot
Chance to win26.1%
The price says27.4%

The model graded 70 markets for New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills (NFL) and this is the one it backs hardest — a long shot. A $100 bet returns about $350 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Sun 4 Oct 2026, 1:00 PM ET at Buffalo.

This game's bets

The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Moneyline New England Patriots Long-shot26% chance +250
Spread Members only Lean51% chance Members
Team Totals Q1 Members only Lean52% chance Members
Spreads Q2 Members only Lean48% chance Members
Alternate Team Total Points Members only Lean41% chance Members
Alternate Team Totals H1 Members only Long-shot37% chance Members
Moneyline Q2 Members only Long-shot34% chance Members
Alternate Spreads H1 Members only Long-shot40% chance Members
Moneyline H1 Members only Long-shot30% chance Members
Receiving Yards (Alt) × 4 props Highup to 98% Members
Receiving Yards × 8 props Highup to 72% Members
Rushing Yards × 3 props Highup to 73% Members
Rush + Rec Yards × 4 props Highup to 71% Members
Receptions (Alt) × 4 props Leanup to 47% Members
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%

New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills last met on Sun 4 Oct 2026: New England Patriots won 29-26. Their next game gets a fresh preview here the moment it is priced. Today's board: every NFL game priced right now.

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Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Moneyline
New England Patriots
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
New England PatriotsMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New England PatriotsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New England PatriotsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Totals Q1The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New England PatriotsSpreads Q2The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam Totals Q1The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderAlternate Team Total PointsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderAlternate Team Totals H1The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New England PatriotsMoneyline Q2The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderAlternate Team Total PointsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New England PatriotsAlternate Spreads H1The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New England PatriotsAlternate Spreads H1The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderAlternate Team Total PointsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderAlternate Team Total PointsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New England PatriotsMoneyline H1The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New England PatriotsAlternate Spreads H1The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderAlternate Team Total PointsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderAlternate Team Total PointsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New England PatriotsAlternate Spreads H1The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderAlternate Team Totals H1The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

New England Patriots

  • Brenden Schooler SQuestionable
  • Charles Woods CBQuestionable
  • Kevin Byard SQuestionable
  • Rhamondre Stevenson RBQuestionable
  • A.J. Brown WRQuestionable
  • TreVeyon Henderson RBOut
  • Ben Brown COut
  • Carlton Davis III CBOut
  • Walter Rouse OLQuestionable
  • Cameron Latu TEQuestionable
  • Reggie Gilliam FBOut

Buffalo Bills

  • Christian Benford CBQuestionable
  • Tyrell Shavers WROut
  • Spencer Brown OTDoubtful
  • Sam Franklin Jr. SQuestionable
Availability updated Nov 14, 1:04AM UTC — NFL availability is season-pending (off-season); treat as a placeholder until the season opens. · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills: Outdoors with 2 mph wind, 14°F — stronger wind and cold both nudge totals and the kicking game down, and 15 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Roof / venueopen-air outdoor
Surfaceartificial turf
Wind2 mph
Temperature14°F
Availability15 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: sustained wind above ~15 mph and hard cold both drag NFL totals and kicking numbers down, while a key skill-position player being out shifts target and touch share to his backups.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

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Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Keon Coleman BUF Receiving Yards (Alt)
Keon Coleman BUF Receiving Yards
James Cook BUF Rushing Yards
Ty Johnson BUF Rush + Rec Yards
Kyle Williams NE Receptions (Alt)

+ 50 player props graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineNew England Patriots to winNo line posted

New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills moneyline — the live line, our model's read and how the free board has gone so far, tracked every game week on BetBetter.

Point SpreadNew England Patriots spreadNo line posted

New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills spread — the live line, our model's read and how the free board has gone so far, tracked every game week on BetBetter.

Total PointsPatriots @ BillsNo line posted

Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots game total — the live line, our model's read and how the free board has gone so far, tracked every game week on BetBetter.

New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills — what the model found

Our model graded 70 betting markets for New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills — 20 on the game itself and 50 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
50
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 70 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 69 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills — recent results

Buffalo Bills have won 4 of their last 5 games; New England Patriots have won 3 of their last 5.

Buffalo Bills — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W23–6MINAway
W36–10BALHome
W33–30LVAway
W37–34LARAway
L26–29NEHome
New England Patriots — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L27–45GBHome
W24–19MIAAway
L24–30CHIAway
W26–19NYJHome
W45–17LVHome

New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills — recent meetings

These two have met 1 time recently: Buffalo Bills won 0, New England Patriots won 1.

DateBuffalo BillsNew England PatriotsWinner
Oct 42629New England Patriots

Who’s out or in doubt

15 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Buffalo Bills
PlayerStatus
Christian Benford CBQUESTIONABLE
Tyrell Shavers WROUT
Spencer Brown OTDOUBTFUL
Sam Franklin Jr. SQUESTIONABLE
New England Patriots
PlayerStatus
Brenden Schooler SQUESTIONABLE
Charles Woods CBQUESTIONABLE
Kevin Byard SQUESTIONABLE
Rhamondre Stevenson RBQUESTIONABLE
A.J. Brown WRQUESTIONABLE
TreVeyon Henderson RBOUT
Ben Brown COUT
Carlton Davis III CBOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills in the NFL. You may also see this matchup written as Patriots vs Bills, or as Bills vs Patriots. The most recent game between them was Sunday 4 October 2026 at Buffalo. The model has generated 20 game picks and 50 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your NFL betting strategy for this matchup.

New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills: game facts

Past meetings and recent results

Where they last met

  • 4 Oct 2026New England Patriots beat Buffalo Bills 29-26 on the road

New England Patriots: last 5 results

  1. 8 Nov 2026Lostvs Green Bay Packers 27-45
  2. 1 Nov 2026Wonat Miami Dolphins 24-19
  3. 22 Oct 2026Lostat Chicago Bears 24-30
  4. 18 Oct 2026Wonvs New York Jets 26-19
  5. 11 Oct 2026Wonvs Las Vegas Raiders 45-17

Buffalo Bills: last 5 results

  1. 9 Nov 2026Wonat Minnesota Vikings 23-6
  2. 1 Nov 2026Wonvs Baltimore Ravens 36-10
  3. 18 Oct 2026Wonat Las Vegas Raiders 33-30
  4. 12 Oct 2026Wonat Los Angeles Rams 37-34
  5. 4 Oct 2026Lostvs New England Patriots 26-29

Quick answers

Who won the last Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots game? New England Patriots won their last meeting 29-26 on 4 October 2026.

How have New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills done lately? New England Patriots won 3 and lost 2 of the last 5 results we hold. Buffalo Bills won 4 and lost 1 of the last 5 results we hold.

From the final scores we hold. Newest game first.

New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills: the season so far

From every final score this season

New England Patriots are 5-4 this season and Buffalo Bills are 7-1. Buffalo Bills are 3-1 at home. New England Patriots are 2-3 on the road. Buffalo Bills score 32.0 points a game and let in 23.4. New England Patriots score 23.4 and let in 23.0. Buffalo Bills games have averaged 55 points in total; New England Patriots games have averaged 46. Buffalo Bills have won their last 4.

SeasonNew England PatriotsBuffalo Bills
Won-lost5-47-1
At home3-13-1
On the road2-34-0
Points scored a game23.432.0
Points let in a game23.023.4
Points scored at home29.531.8
Points scored away18.632.3
Against winning sides2-43-1
Current runLost 1Won 4
Biggest win45-17 vs Las Vegas Raiders36-10 vs Baltimore Ravens
Heaviest loss35-6 at Jacksonville Jaguars29-26 vs New England Patriots

Teams they have both played

  • Against Las Vegas Raiders: Buffalo Bills won 33-30 on the road; New England Patriots won 45-17 at home.

Quick answers

How are Buffalo Bills doing this season? Buffalo Bills are 7-1 this season: 3-1 at home and 4-0 on the road.

How many points do New England Patriots score a game? New England Patriots score 23.4 points a game this season and let in 23.0, across 9 games.

Wins and losses come from the final score, overtime included. “Against winning sides” counts games against teams that have won more than half their games this season.

New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills head-to-head record

Final scores · 24 meetings on record
New England Patriots 14–10 across the last 24 meetings · these games average 44.8 points (meetings on record since 2015)

Last meeting: Sun 4 Oct 2026, New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills: the Patriots won 29-26.

DateGameScoreWinner
4 Oct 2026New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills26–29New England Patriots
14 Dec 2025Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots31–35Buffalo Bills
5 Oct 2025New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills20–23New England Patriots
5 Jan 2025Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots23–16New England Patriots
22 Dec 2024New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills24–21Buffalo Bills
31 Dec 2023New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills27–21Buffalo Bills
22 Oct 2023Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots29–25New England Patriots
8 Jan 2023New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills35–23Buffalo Bills
1 Dec 2022Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots10–24Buffalo Bills
15 Jan 2022New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills47–17Buffalo Bills

Table shows the last 10 — the record above counts all 24 meetings on file.

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