On August 19, 2026 our 3-leg same game parlay for San Diego Padres at New York Mets is built from the bets our model already likes on their own. We rate the whole slip LONG-SHOT confidence. Every leg below is a bet our model already rates on its own, so you can see exactly what you are backing and what the book is paying for it.

The legs, one at a time

Fernando Tatis Jr. Under 1.5 Hits (-244)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Mets host the Padres, all eyes will be on Fernando Tatis Jr., a dynamic talent but one who’s recently been facing a tough stretch at the plate. The Mets’ pitching staff has been quietly dominant, with their starters boasting a collective ERA that ranks among the best in the league. Tatis has struggled against right-handed pitchers, hitting just.227 in those matchups recently. Furthermore, the Mets’ righty, who'll be on the mound, has been particularly effective at limiting hits, especially against power hitters. With Tatis averaging only 0.75 hits per game lately, the under on 1.5 hits appears enticing. Adding to this is his recent trend of being held to one hit or less in several outings against quality pitching. In this matchup, it seems likely that Tatis finds himself under the radar, making the Under a smart play for today's game.

Robert Stock (NYM) Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+101)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Mets host the Padres, all eyes will be on Robert Stock, but a closer look suggests a strikeout total lower than the line set at 3.5. Stock has shown flashes of brilliance, yet he often struggles against disciplined lineups like San Diego's. The Padres' offense is one of the toughest to punch out, boasting a patient approach that leads to fewer swings and misses. Additionally, Stock's recent outings indicate a trend of underwhelming strikeout performances, averaging just over two strikeouts in his last few starts. With a model predicting just 2.26 strikeouts, it’s clear that even the analytics favor the under. Given the Padres’ knack for making contact and the Mets' overall inconsistency, taking the under on Stock’s strikeouts feels like the prudent play in this matchup. Don't be surprised if this one stays under the threshold as both teams battle for key runs rather than whiffs.

Francisco Lindor (NYM) Under 1.5 Total Bases (-179)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Mets gear up to face the Padres, all eyes will be on Francisco Lindor, but betting on him to go over 1.5 total bases feels risky. Lindor has been fighting through a tough stretch, hitting just.220 over his last 10 games. Facing Padres' ace Yu Darvish, who’s been sharp with a 2.95 ERA this season, the odds are stacked against him. The Mets' lineup, while potent, has struggled against right-handed pitching lately, posting a subpar.240 average. Lindor’s recent performance against similar pitchers shows a marked decline, making it harder to envision him breaking through today. Add to that the Padres' solid defense, and it’s clear why the under on Lindor’s bases seems like a prudent bet. With the model predicting just 0.91 total bases, it aligns with the current trends, setting the stage for a quieter day at the plate for Lindor.

That is the whole read. Every leg above is our own number against the price on the board at the time we wrote this, and the price can move before you get on. Bet what you can afford to lose. If betting stops being fun, take a break.

Unlock the rest of this one

You're reading the free preview. One plan unlocks the full article and every pick we back — every league, every day.

Unlock the full article