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Model picks & player props
San Diego Padres
VS
Colorado Rockies

San Diego Padres vs Colorado Rockies Picks & Predictions

Model updated Sep 20, 1:21AM UTC

Our model graded 70 markets for San Diego Padres vs Colorado Rockies and backs San Diego Padres hardest, a strong call, and $100 on it returns about $163.

MLB
Coors Field, Denver
Outdoor
Thu 17 Sep 2026, 7:10PM
20
Game markets graded
50
Props graded
94.7%
Historical Hit Rate
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
San Diego Padres Moneyline -159

The model graded 70 markets for San Diego Padres vs Colorado Rockies (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — HIGH confidence. A $100 bet returns about $163 if it lands. Picks on this matchup have hit 94.7% across 38 settled results. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Thu 17 Sep 2026, 7:10PM at Coors Field.

Our confidenceHigh
Chance to win60.6%
The price says59.5%
Best price-159
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Moneyline San Diego Padres High61% chance -159
Spread Members only Lean41% chance Members
Total Runs - 1st 1 Innings Members only Lean52% chance Members
Total Runs Members only Lean45% chance Members
Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Members only Lean44% chance Members
Batter - Total Bases × 5 props Leanup to 52% Members
Batter - Stolen Bases × 4 props Long-shotup to 29% Members
Batter - RBIs × 7 props Leanup to 54% Members
Pitcher - Walks × 1 prop Highup to 66% Members
Batter - Walks × 9 props Highup to 83% Members
Pitcher - Outs × 2 props Highup to 73% Members
Pitcher - Strikeouts × 3 props Highup to 60% Members
Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs × 3 props Highup to 65% Members
Batter - Strikeouts × 5 props Long-shotup to 27% Members
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%
Every MLB game on today's board →

San Diego Padres and Colorado Rockies last met on Thu 17 Sep 2026. The model's calls from that game are graded below. Today's board: every MLB game priced right now.

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San Diego Padres · $100 returned $161

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This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 72 of 119 right (mlb pitcher outs unders)
This bet type · last timeSep 19
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Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Moneyline
San Diego Padres
-159
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
San Diego PadresMoneylineThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
San Diego PadresSpreadThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
San Diego PadresSpreadThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal Runs - 1st 1 InningsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
San Diego PadresSpreadThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
San Diego PadresSpreadThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
San Diego PadresSpreadThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
San Diego PadresSpreadThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal Runs - 1st 5 InningsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal Runs - 1st 5 InningsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal Runs - 1st 5 InningsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

San Diego Padres

  • Gavin Sheets 1BOut
  • Jeremiah Estrada RPOut
  • Ramon Laureano LFOut
  • Jason Adam RPOut
  • Miguel Andujar DHOut
  • Joe Musgrove SPOut
  • Luis Rengifo LFOut
  • Lucas Giolito SPOut
  • Bryan Hoeing RPOut

Probable pitcher

Casey Mize SP

Colorado Rockies

  • Willi Castro 2BOut
  • Chase Dollander SPOut
  • Welinton Herrera RPOut
  • McCade Brown SPOut
  • RJ Petit RPOut
  • Pierson Ohl RPOut
  • Kris Bryant DHOut

Probable pitcher

Jose Quintana SP
Availability updated Sep 20, 12:40AM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For San Diego Padres vs Colorado Rockies: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 16 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability16 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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The preview

Written 18 Sep

Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres Prediction and Picks, September 18, 2026

On September 18, 2026 our model has run San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockies and priced every market it can. Our strongest call is Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres: Over 4.5 alternate totals 1st 5 innings (-213), which we rate HIGH confidence. We walk through all 6 bets we like in this game below. Everything below is our own number against the price the book is offering, written in plain English with how confident we are in words.

Every bet we like in this game

Fernando Tatis Jr. Under 1.5 Hits (-128)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

Colorado Rockies play San Diego Padres in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Fernando Tatis Jr. Under 1.5 Hits (-128). That is a Hits bet. It was priced at -128 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $17.81 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Zac Veen Over 0.5 Strikeouts (-119)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

Colorado Rockies play San Diego Padres in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Zac Veen Over 0.5 Strikeouts (-119). That is a Strikeouts bet. It was priced at -119 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18.40 if it lands. Our model rates this one a lean pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Ty France (SEA) Under 0.5 Runs Scored (+101)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

Colorado Rockies play San Diego Padres in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Ty France (SEA) Under 0.5 Runs Scored (+101). That is a Runs Scored bet. It was priced at +101 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $20.10 if it lands. Our model rates this one a lean pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres: Over 4.5 alternate totals 1st 5 innings (-213)

Odds correct at time of publishing

Colorado Rockies play San Diego Padres in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres: Over 4.5 alternate totals 1st 5 innings (-213). That is a alternate totals 1st 5 innings bet. It was priced at -213 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $14.69 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres: Over 5.5 alternate totals 1st 5 innings (-135)

Odds correct at time of publishing

Colorado Rockies play San Diego Padres in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres: Over 5.5 alternate totals 1st 5 innings (-135). That is a alternate totals 1st 5 innings bet. It was priced at -135 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $17.41 if it lands. Our model rates this one a lean pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres: Over 6.5 alternate totals 1st 5 innings (+118)

Odds correct at time of publishing

Colorado Rockies play San Diego Padres in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres: Over 6.5 alternate totals 1st 5 innings (+118). That is a alternate totals 1st 5 innings bet. It was priced at +118 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $21.80 if it lands. Our model rates this one a long shot. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

That is the whole read. Every bet above is our own number against the price on the board at the time we wrote this, and the price can move before you get on. Bet what you can afford to lose. If betting stops being fun, take a break.

Bet Better model desk · read as an article

Same game parlay

Written 18 Sep

Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres Prediction and Same Game Parlay picks, September 18, 2026

On September 18, 2026 our 3-leg same game parlay for San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockies is built from the bets our model already likes on their own. We rate the whole slip HIGH confidence. Every leg below is a bet our model already rates on its own, so you can see exactly what you are backing and what the book is paying for it.

The legs, one at a time

Michael King (SDP) Over 1.5 Strikeouts (-2000)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

Colorado Rockies play San Diego Padres in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Michael King (SDP) Over 1.5 Strikeouts (-2000). That is a Strikeouts bet. It was priced at -2000 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $10.50 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Ty France (SEA) Over 0.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-556)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

Colorado Rockies play San Diego Padres in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Ty France (SEA) Over 0.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-556). That is a Hits+Runs+RBIs bet. It was priced at -556 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $11.80 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Manny Machado (SDP) Over 0.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-556)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

Colorado Rockies play San Diego Padres in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Manny Machado (SDP) Over 0.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-556). That is a Hits+Runs+RBIs bet. It was priced at -556 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $11.80 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

That is the whole read. Every leg above is our own number against the price on the board at the time we wrote this, and the price can move before you get on. Bet what you can afford to lose. If betting stops being fun, take a break.

Bet Better model desk · read as an article

Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
TJ Rumfield Batter - Total Bases
Connor Norby Batter - Stolen Bases
Jake Cronenworth SDP Batter - Stolen Bases
Samad Taylor Batter - Total Bases
Jake McCarthy ARI Batter - RBIs

+ 50 player props graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineColorado RockiesNo line posted
1-4L5 record
L5 RF4.4L5 RA7.4Home L51-4vs San Diego Padres L50-5

Colorado Rockies moneyline form: last five 1-4, 4.4 runs/gm.

Run LineColorado Rockies run lineNo line posted
1-4L5 record
L5 RF4.4L5 RA7.4Home L51-4vs San Diego Padres L50-5

Colorado Rockies spread form: last five 1-4, 4.4 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Colorado Rockies vs San Diego PadresNo line posted

Colorado Rockies total runs form: last five 1-4, 4.4 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsColorado Rockies team totalNo line posted
4.7runs we expect
L5 RF4.4L5 RA7.4Home L51-4vs San Diego Padres L50-5

Colorado Rockies team total runs form: last five 1-4, 4.4 runs/gm.

San Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies — what the model found

Our model graded 70 betting markets for San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockies — 20 on the game itself and 50 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
50
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 70 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 69 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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San Diego Padres vs Colorado Rockies — recent results

Colorado Rockies have won 1 of their last 5 games; San Diego Padres have won 4 of their last 5.

Colorado Rockies — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L4–5SEAHome
L3–9SDHome
L2–9SDHome
W9–3SDHome
L7–8SDHome
San Diego Padres — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W9–3COLAway
W9–2COLAway
L3–9COLAway
W8–7COLAway
W6–4SFAway

San Diego Padres vs Colorado Rockies — recent meetings

These two have met 10 times recently: Colorado Rockies won 2, San Diego Padres won 8.

DateColorado RockiesSan Diego PadresWinner
Sep 1739San Diego Padres
Sep 1729San Diego Padres
Sep 1693Colorado Rockies
Sep 1578San Diego Padres
Jul 2978San Diego Padres
Jul 2913San Diego Padres
Apr 2383Colorado Rockies
Apr 23810San Diego Padres
Apr 2201San Diego Padres
Apr 1259San Diego Padres

Who’s out or in doubt

16 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Colorado Rockies
PlayerStatus
Willi Castro 2BOUT
Chase Dollander SPOUT
Welinton Herrera RPOUT
McCade Brown SPOUT
RJ Petit RPOUT
Pierson Ohl RPOUT
Kris Bryant DHOUT
San Diego Padres
PlayerStatus
Gavin Sheets 1BOUT
Jeremiah Estrada RPOUT
Ramon Laureano LFOUT
Jason Adam RPOUT
Miguel Andujar DHOUT
Joe Musgrove SPOUT
Luis Rengifo LFOUT
Lucas Giolito SPOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

San Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies — model preview

Our San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockies prediction for September 18, 2026, plus every bet we like in the game and how confident we are in each.

On September 18, 2026 our model has run San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockies and priced every market it can. Our strongest call is Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres: Over 4.5 alternate totals 1st 5 innings (-213), which we rate HIGH confidence. We walk through all 6 bets we like in this game below. Everything below is our own number against the price the book is offering, written in plain English with how confident we are in words.

Every bet we like in this game

🔒 The other 6 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
Unlock the full write-up
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Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
Recent form: won 5 of last 5 settled picks for this matchup.
38
Total Picks
94.7%
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult
17 Sep 26 Spread San Diego Padres -4 ✓ HIT
17 Sep 26 Total Runs Over 9.5 ✓ HIT
17 Sep 26 Moneyline San Diego Padres ✓ HIT
17 Sep 26 Spread San Diego Padres -1.5 ✓ HIT
17 Sep 26 Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Over 5.5 ✓ HIT
17 Sep 26 Spread San Diego Padres -3.5 ✓ HIT
17 Sep 26 Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Over 6.5 ✓ HIT
17 Sep 26 Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Over 4.5 ✓ HIT
17 Sep 26 Total Runs Over 8.5 ✓ HIT
17 Sep 26 Total Runs - 1st 1 Innings Over 0.5 ✓ HIT
17 Sep 26 Spread San Diego Padres -2.5 ✓ HIT
17 Sep 26 Spread San Diego Padres -3 ✓ HIT
17 Sep 26 Spread San Diego Padres -5 ✓ HIT
17 Sep 26 Total Runs Over 11.5 ✗ MISS
17 Sep 26 Total Runs Over 10 ✓ HIT

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for San Diego Padres vs Colorado Rockies in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Padres vs Rockies, or as Rockies vs Padres. The most recent game between them was Thursday 17 September 2026 at Coors Field. The model has generated 20 game picks and 50 player props for this matchup. The model has recorded a hit rate of 94.7% on tracked picks between these two teams. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Final scores · 59 meetings on record
San Diego Padres 37–22 across the last 59 meetings · these games average 9.9 runs (meetings on record since 2023)
DateGameScoreWinner
17 Sep 2026San Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies3–9San Diego Padres
16 Sep 2026San Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies9–3Colorado Rockies
15 Sep 2026San Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies7–8San Diego Padres
14 Sep 2026San Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies7–8San Diego Padres
29 Jul 2026Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres3–1San Diego Padres
28 Jul 2026Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres8–7San Diego Padres
23 Apr 2026San Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies8–10San Diego Padres
22 Apr 2026San Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies8–3Colorado Rockies
21 Apr 2026San Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies0–1San Diego Padres
12 Apr 2026Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres7–2San Diego Padres

Table shows the last 10 — the record above counts all 59 meetings on file.

Today's selected board

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