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Model picks & player props
New York Yankees
VS
Washington Nationals

New York Yankees vs Washington Nationals Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 21, 12:41PM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

MLB
Nationals Park, Washington
Outdoor
Sun 12 Jul 2026, 5:35PM
20
Game markets graded
0
Props graded
61.1%
Historical Hit Rate
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Under 7 Total Runs +222

The model graded 20 markets for New York Yankees vs Washington Nationals (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — a lean, not a lock. A $100 bet returns about $322 if it lands. Picks on this matchup have hit 61.1% across 36 settled results. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Sun 12 Jul 2026, 5:35PM at Nationals Park.

Our confidenceLean
Chance to win44.5%
The price says31.1%
Best price+222
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Total Runs Under 7 Lean44% chance +222
Total Runs Long-shot36% chance —
Total Runs Lean54% chance —
Total Runs High62% chance —
Total Runs Lean58% chance —
Total Runs Lean40% chance —
Total Runs High74% chance —
Total Runs Lean49% chance —
Total Runs High71% chance —
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%
Every MLB game on today's board →
This game is done — from the model’s graded calls on this game
Under 8.5 · $100 returned $236

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Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record
This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 840 of 1,690 right (mlb total-runs unders)
This bet type · last timeAug 21
Under 4.5
Washington Nationals @ Texas Rangers
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $483
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Total Runs
Under
6
+332
+ 19 more markets
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All 20 game markets and 0 player props for this matchup — every line, every call the model backs — plus every pick across the slate. Join 55,242+ members.

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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York YankeesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York YankeesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York YankeesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York YankeesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York YankeesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York YankeesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York YankeesMoneyline - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York YankeesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

New York Yankees

  • Ryan McMahon 3BDay-to-day
  • Cody Bellinger LFOut
  • Max Fried SPOut
  • Aaron Judge RFOut
  • Clarke Schmidt SPOut
  • Giancarlo Stanton DHOut
  • Kervin Castro RPOut

Probable pitcher

Gerrit Cole SP

Washington Nationals

  • CJ Abrams SSDay-to-day
  • Josiah Gray SPOut
  • DJ Herz SPOut
  • James Wood RFOut
  • Drew Millas COut
  • Richard Lovelady RPOut
  • Connelly Early SPOut
  • PJ Poulin RPOut
  • Mitchell Parker RPOut
  • Ken Waldichuk RPOut

Probable pitcher

Andrew Alvarez SP
Availability updated Aug 21, 2:53AM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For New York Yankees vs Washington Nationals: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 17 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability17 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineWashington NationalsNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF2.2L5 RA0.8Home L53-2vs New York Yankees L51-4

Washington Nationals moneyline form: last five 3-2, 2.2 runs/gm.

Run LineWashington Nationals run lineNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF2.2L5 RA0.8Home L53-2vs New York Yankees L51-4

Washington Nationals spread form: last five 3-2, 2.2 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Washington Nationals vs New York YankeesNo line posted

Washington Nationals total runs form: last five 3-2, 2.2 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsWashington Nationals team totalNo line posted
1.3runs we expect
L5 RF2.2L5 RA0.8Home L53-2vs New York Yankees L51-4

Washington Nationals team total runs form: last five 3-2, 2.2 runs/gm.

New York Yankees @ Washington Nationals — what the model found

Our model graded 20 betting markets for New York Yankees at Washington Nationals — 20 on the game itself and 0 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 20 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 19 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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New York Yankees vs Washington Nationals — recent results

Washington Nationals have won 1 of their last 5 games; New York Yankees have won 4 of their last 5.

Washington Nationals — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L0–2TEXAway
W6–0TEXAway
L0–5TEXAway
L3–4NYMAway
L4–5NYMAway
New York Yankees — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W6–1BALAway
W5–3BALAway
W3–1BALAway
W4–3TORAway
L1–4TORAway

New York Yankees vs Washington Nationals — recent meetings

These two have met 4 times recently: Washington Nationals won 1, New York Yankees won 3.

DateWashington NationalsNew York YankeesWinner
Jul 1235New York Yankees
Jul 1124New York Yankees
Jul 1035New York Yankees
Mar 730Washington Nationals

Who’s out or in doubt

17 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Washington Nationals
PlayerStatus
CJ Abrams SSDAY-TO-DAY
Josiah Gray SPOUT
DJ Herz SPOUT
James Wood RFOUT
Drew Millas COUT
Richard Lovelady RPOUT
Connelly Early SPOUT
PJ Poulin RPOUT
New York Yankees
PlayerStatus
Ryan McMahon 3BDAY-TO-DAY
Cody Bellinger LFOUT
Max Fried SPOUT
Aaron Judge RFOUT
Clarke Schmidt SPOUT
Giancarlo Stanton DHOUT
Kervin Castro RPOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
36
Total Picks
61.1%
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult
12 Jul 26 Total Runs Under 7 ✗ MISS
12 Jul 26 Total Runs Under 6 ✗ MISS
12 Jul 26 Total Runs Under 9 ✓ HIT
12 Jul 26 Total Runs Under 6.5 ✗ MISS
12 Jul 26 Total Runs Under 8.5 ✓ HIT
12 Jul 26 Total Runs Under 10.5 ✓ HIT
12 Jul 26 Total Runs Under 7.5 ✗ MISS
12 Jul 26 Total Runs Under 10 ✓ HIT
12 Jul 26 Total Runs Under 9.5 ✓ HIT
12 Jul 26 Total Runs Under 5.5 ✗ MISS
12 Jul 26 Total Runs Under 11.5 ✓ HIT
12 Jul 26 Total Runs Under 11 ✓ HIT
12 Jul 26 Total Runs Under 12.5 ✓ HIT
12 Jul 26 Total Runs Under 12 ✓ HIT
12 Jul 26 Total Runs - 1st 1 Innings Over 0.5 ✓ HIT

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for New York Yankees vs Washington Nationals in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Yankees vs Nationals, or as Nationals vs Yankees. The most recent game between them was Sunday 12 July 2026 at Nationals Park. The model has generated 20 game picks for this matchup. The model has recorded a hit rate of 61.1% on tracked picks between these two teams. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Last time they played

Final scores · last 4 meetings
New York Yankees 3–1 across the last 4 meetings
DateGameScoreWinner
12 Jul 2026New York Yankees @ Washington Nationals3–5New York Yankees
11 Jul 2026New York Yankees @ Washington Nationals2–4New York Yankees
10 Jul 2026New York Yankees @ Washington Nationals3–5New York Yankees
7 Mar 2026New York Yankees @ Washington Nationals3–0Washington Nationals
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