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Model picks & player props
Toronto Blue Jays
VS
Philadelphia Phillies

Toronto Blue Jays vs Philadelphia Phillies Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 10, 6:14PM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

MLB
Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia
Outdoor
Sun 9 Aug 2026, 5:35PM
20
Game markets graded
50
Props graded
Answer
The model’s one call for this game: Philadelphia Phillies -2.5 (Spread)
The model graded 70 markets for Toronto Blue Jays vs Philadelphia Phillies (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — a lean, not a lock. A $100 bet returns about $850 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. For the numbers: model win probability 30.0%, fair odds 3.33, book price +750, model edge +18.2%. Tip-off Sun 9 Aug 2026, 5:35PM at Citizens Bank Park.
This game is done — from the model’s graded calls on this game
Over 12.5 · $100 returned $470

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This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 546 of 996 right (mlb total-runs unders)
This bet type · last timeAug 10
Under 9.5
Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $170

Game picks

+EV edge in green
Spread
Philadelphia Phillies
-1.5
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
Philadelphia PhilliesSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Toronto Blue JaysMoneyline - 1st 5 InningsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Toronto Blue JaysMoneylinePositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesMoneylinePositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

Pro shows you, in plain English, how far each price is off — and how much to put on it. No maths needed on your side.

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Toronto Blue Jays

  • George Springer DHDay-to-day
  • Spencer Arrighetti SPOut
  • Yimi Garcia RPOut
  • Luis Urias 2BOut
  • Trey Yesavage SPOut
  • Patrick Corbin SPOut
  • Lenyn Sosa 2BOut
  • Joe Mantiply RPOut
  • Addison Barger RFOut
  • Jonatan Clase LFOut
  • Anthony Santander RFOut
  • Jose Berrios SPOut
  • Cody Ponce SPOut
  • Bowden Francis SPOut

Probable pitcher

Shane Bieber SP

Philadelphia Phillies

  • Caleb Kilian RPDay-to-day
  • Derek Hill CFDay-to-day
  • Brad Keller RPOut
  • Tanner Banks RPOut
  • Rafael Marchan COut
  • Johan Rojas CFOut
  • Adolis Garcia RFOut

Probable pitcher

Jesus Luzardo SP
Availability updated Aug 9, 9:36PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Toronto Blue Jays vs Philadelphia Phillies: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 21 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability21 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

See the weather- and injury-adjusted projected line and the model's with/without delta for this fixture. 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Bryson Stott Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Bryson Stott Batter - Total Bases 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR Batter - Total Bases 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Luis Arraez MIN Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Shane Bieber Pitcher - Walks 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylinePhiladelphia PhilliesNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF2.8L5 RA1.4Home L54-1vs Toronto Blue Jays L53-2

Philadelphia Phillies moneyline form: last five 3-2, 2.8 runs/gm.

Run LinePhiladelphia Phillies run lineNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF2.8L5 RA1.4Home L54-1vs Toronto Blue Jays L53-2

Philadelphia Phillies spread form: last five 3-2, 2.8 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Philadelphia Phillies vs Toronto Blue JaysNo line posted

Philadelphia Phillies total runs form: last five 3-2, 2.8 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsPhiladelphia Phillies team totalNo line posted
1.7runs we expect
L5 RF2.8L5 RA1.4Home L54-1vs Toronto Blue Jays L53-2

Philadelphia Phillies team total runs form: last five 3-2, 2.8 runs/gm.

Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies — what the model found

Our model graded 70 betting markets for Toronto Blue Jays at Philadelphia Phillies — 20 on the game itself and 50 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
50
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 70 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 69 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Toronto Blue Jays vs Philadelphia Phillies — recent results

Philadelphia Phillies have won 2 of their last 5 games; Toronto Blue Jays have won 2 of their last 5.

Philadelphia Phillies — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W7–6TORHome
L5–7TORHome
L4–5TORHome
W7–3WSHHome
L4–10WSHHome
Toronto Blue Jays — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L6–7PHIAway
W7–5PHIAway
W5–4PHIAway
L2–3CHCAway
L2–7HOUAway

Toronto Blue Jays vs Philadelphia Phillies — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Philadelphia Phillies are scoring 2.4 runs per game (3-2) while Toronto Blue Jays are at 2.4 (4-1); Philadelphia Phillies pitchers are allowing 1.2 earned runs per game versus 0.8 for Toronto Blue Jays.

2.4
Philadelphia Phillies runs/G
2.4
Toronto Blue Jays runs/G
Last 5 gamesPhiladelphia PhilliesToronto Blue Jays
Runs / game2.42.4
Hits / game5.04.2
Home runs / game0.20.4
Walks drawn / game1.01.6
Batter K / game1.23.0
Earned runs allowed / game1.20.8
Pitching K / game2.61.8
Walks allowed / game1.42.0
L5 record3-24-1

Toronto Blue Jays vs Philadelphia Phillies — recent meetings

These two have met 6 times recently: Philadelphia Phillies won 3, Toronto Blue Jays won 3.

DatePhiladelphia PhilliesToronto Blue JaysWinner
Aug 976Philadelphia Phillies
Aug 857Toronto Blue Jays
Aug 745Toronto Blue Jays
Jun 1074Philadelphia Phillies
Jun 923Toronto Blue Jays
Jun 852Philadelphia Phillies

Who’s out or in doubt

21 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Philadelphia Phillies
PlayerStatus
Caleb Kilian RPDAY-TO-DAY
Derek Hill CFDAY-TO-DAY
Brad Keller RPOUT
Tanner Banks RPOUT
Rafael Marchan COUT
Johan Rojas CFOUT
Adolis Garcia RFOUT
Toronto Blue Jays
PlayerStatus
George Springer DHDAY-TO-DAY
Spencer Arrighetti SPOUT
Yimi Garcia RPOUT
Luis Urias 2BOUT
Trey Yesavage SPOUT
Patrick Corbin SPOUT
Lenyn Sosa 2BOUT
Joe Mantiply RPOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

The umpire factor

Home-plate umpire: Brock Ballou. His games average 9.0 total runs against a league average of 8.9.

9.0
Runs in his games
8.9
League average

Brock Ballou called this game behind the plate. Across 71 games his days at the park bring about the usual amount of scoring.

Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies — model preview

Our Toronto Blue Jays at Philadelphia Phillies prediction for August 10, 2026, plus every bet we like in the game and how confident we are in each.

On August 10, 2026 our model has run Toronto Blue Jays at Philadelphia Phillies and priced every market it can. Our strongest call is Philadelphia Phillies vs Toronto Blue Jays: Under 13 Total Runs (-345), which we rate HIGH confidence. We walk through all 2 bets we like in this game below. Everything below is our own number against the price the book is offering, written in plain English with how confident we are in words.

Every bet we like in this game

🔒 The other 2 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
5
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult
09 Aug 26 Moneyline Toronto Blue Jays ✗ MISS
09 Aug 26 Moneyline Philadelphia Phillies ✓ HIT
09 Aug 26 Spread Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 ✗ MISS
09 Aug 26 Spread Philadelphia Phillies -2.5 ✗ MISS
09 Aug 26 Moneyline - 1st 5 Innings Toronto Blue Jays ✗ MISS

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Toronto Blue Jays vs Philadelphia Phillies in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Jays vs Phillies, or as Phillies vs Jays. The most recent game between them was Sunday 9 August 2026 at Citizens Bank Park. The model has generated 20 game picks and 50 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

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