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Model picks & player props
Toronto Blue Jays
VS
Philadelphia Phillies

Toronto Blue Jays vs Philadelphia Phillies Picks & Predictions

Model updated Jul 21, 11:19AM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

MLB
Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia
Outdoor
Fri 13 Jun 2025, 10:45PM
16
Game Picks
0
Player Props
Answer
Model lean: Toronto Blue Jays (Moneyline)
For Toronto Blue Jays vs Philadelphia Phillies (MLB), model win probability 63.6%, fair odds 1.57, book price +116, model edge +17.3%, this is your free pick — unlock every other market and all player props with Pro. Tip-off Fri 13 Jun 2025, 10:45PM at Citizens Bank Park.
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Game picks

+EV edge in green
Moneyline
Toronto Blue Jays
+ 15 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
Toronto Blue JaysMoneylinePositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Toronto Blue Jays

  • Yimi Garcia RPOut
  • Max Scherzer SPOut
  • Lenyn Sosa 2BOut
  • Addison Barger RFOut
  • Anthony Santander RFOut
  • Jesus Sanchez RFOut
  • Joe Mantiply RPOut
  • Jose Berrios SPOut
  • Cody Ponce SPOut
  • Bowden Francis SPOut

Probable pitcher

Dylan Cease SP

Philadelphia Phillies

  • Brad Keller RPOut
  • Tanner Banks RPOut
  • Lou Trivino RPOut
  • Johan Rojas CFOut
  • Adolis Garcia RFOut

Probable pitcher

Cristopher Sanchez SP
Availability updated Jul 20, 11:07PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Toronto Blue Jays vs Philadelphia Phillies: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 15 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability15 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylinePhiladelphia PhilliesNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF4.6L5 RA2.0Home L52-3vs Toronto Blue Jays L52-3Win rec0-11

Philadelphia Phillies moneyline form: last five 3-2, 4.6 runs/gm.

Run LinePhiladelphia Phillies run lineNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF4.6L5 RA2.0Home L52-3vs Toronto Blue Jays L52-3ATS2-14

Philadelphia Phillies spread form: last five 3-2, 4.6 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Philadelphia Phillies vs Toronto Blue JaysNo line posted

Philadelphia Phillies total runs form: last five 3-2, 4.6 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsPhiladelphia Phillies team totalNo line posted
3.1implied team total
L5 RF4.6L5 RA2.0Home L52-3vs Toronto Blue Jays L52-3

Philadelphia Phillies team total runs form: last five 3-2, 4.6 runs/gm.

Toronto Blue Jays vs Philadelphia Phillies — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Philadelphia Phillies are scoring 5.6 runs per game (2-3) while Toronto Blue Jays are at 1.8 (1-4); Philadelphia Phillies pitchers are allowing 5.4 earned runs per game versus 4.4 for Toronto Blue Jays.

5.6
Philadelphia Phillies runs/G
1.8
Toronto Blue Jays runs/G
Last 5 gamesPhiladelphia PhilliesToronto Blue Jays
Runs / game5.61.8
Hits / game10.26.0
Home runs / game0.60.2
Walks drawn / game3.82.2
Batter K / game8.06.4
Earned runs allowed / game5.44.4
Pitching K / game8.66.2
Walks allowed / game2.82.8
L5 record2-31-4

Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies — model preview

<p>Expert analysis and top MLB betting picks for Philadelphia Phillies vs Toronto Blue Jays. Includes analysis on key players like Kevin Gausman. Discover MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, Philadelphia Phillies vs Toronto Blue Jays stats and odds.</p>

Kevin Gausman (TOR) Over 0.5 Walks Allowed (-556)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The bet on Kevin Gausman for Over 0.5 in the Pitcher Walks Allowed market is a sound choice based on his recent performance data. In his last five games, Gausman's average walks allowed is 1.2, which is above the proposed line of 0.5. This trend is even more pronounced in away games, where his average walks allowed rises to 1.8. Furthermore, when facing the Philadelphia Phillies, his average walks allowed is 1.7, again surpassing the 0.5 line. Despite a decent overall innings pitched average, the high walk rate remains consistent. The data suggests that Gausman is likely to allow at least one walk in the upcoming game, making the Over 0.5 bet a statistically informed choice.

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
0
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Toronto Blue Jays vs Philadelphia Phillies in the MLB. The most recent or upcoming game is scheduled for Friday 13 June 2025 at Citizens Bank Park. The model has generated 16 game picks for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

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