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Model picks & player props
Toronto Blue Jays
VS
Philadelphia Phillies

Toronto Blue Jays vs Philadelphia Phillies Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 30, 10:29PM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

MLB
Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia
Outdoor
Sun 9 Aug 2026, 5:35PM
20
Game markets graded
50
Props graded
58.1%
Historical Hit Rate
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Toronto Blue Jays Moneyline +207

The model graded 70 markets for Toronto Blue Jays vs Philadelphia Phillies (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — a lean, not a lock. A $100 bet returns about $307 if it lands. Picks on this matchup have hit 58.1% across 43 settled results. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Sun 9 Aug 2026, 5:35PM at Citizens Bank Park.

Our confidenceLean
Chance to win49.6%
The price says32.6%
Best price+207
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Moneyline Toronto Blue Jays Lean50% chance +207
Spread Long-shot27% chance —
Moneyline - 1st 5 Innings Lean48% chance —
Spread Long-shot24% chance —
Spread Long-shot18% chance —
Spread Long-shot16% chance —
Spread Long-shot13% chance —
Moneyline Lean51% chance —
Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs × 13 props Highup to 94% —
Batter - Total Bases × 8 props Highup to 99% —
Pitcher - Walks × 1 prop Highup to 74% —
Batter - Singles × 9 props Highup to 84% —
Batter - Runs Scored × 5 props Highup to 86% —
Batter - Walks × 5 props Highup to 95% —
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%
Every MLB game on today's board →
This game is done — from the model’s graded calls on this game
Over 12.5 · $100 returned $470

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Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record
This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 935 of 1,976 right (mlb total-runs unders)
This bet type · last timeAug 29
Under 11.5
Chicago White Sox @ Minnesota Twins
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $130
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Moneyline
Toronto Blue Jays
+207
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
Toronto Blue JaysMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Toronto Blue JaysMoneyline - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

Pro shows you, in plain English, how far each price is off — and how much to put on it. No maths needed on your side.

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Toronto Blue Jays

  • Trey Yesavage SPOut
  • Jameson Taillon SPOut
  • Josh Smith 2BOut
  • Anthony Santander RFOut
  • Jonatan Clase LFOut
  • Yimi Garcia RPOut
  • Shane Bieber SPOut
  • Joe Mantiply RPOut
  • Jake Bloss SPOut
  • Luis Urias 2BOut
  • Patrick Corbin SPOut
  • Addison Barger RFOut
  • Jose Berrios SPOut
  • Cody Ponce SPOut
  • Bowden Francis SPOut

Probable pitcher

Max Scherzer SP

Philadelphia Phillies

  • Rafael Marchan COut
  • Tanner Banks RPOut
  • Felix Reyes LFOut
  • Caleb Kilian RPOut
  • Brad Keller RPOut
  • Johan Rojas CFOut
  • Adolis Garcia RFOut

Probable pitcher

Zack Wheeler SP
Availability updated Aug 30, 8:07PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Toronto Blue Jays vs Philadelphia Phillies: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 22 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability22 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

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Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Bryson Stott Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs
Bryson Stott Batter - Total Bases
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR Batter - Total Bases
Luis Arraez MIN Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs
Shane Bieber Pitcher - Walks

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylinePhiladelphia PhilliesNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF1.4L5 RA1.2Home L52-3vs Toronto Blue Jays L51-4

Philadelphia Phillies moneyline form: last five 2-3, 1.4 runs/gm.

Run LinePhiladelphia Phillies run lineNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF1.4L5 RA1.2Home L52-3vs Toronto Blue Jays L51-4

Philadelphia Phillies spread form: last five 2-3, 1.4 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Philadelphia Phillies vs Toronto Blue JaysNo line posted

Philadelphia Phillies total runs form: last five 2-3, 1.4 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsPhiladelphia Phillies team totalNo line posted
0.9runs we expect
L5 RF1.4L5 RA1.2Home L52-3vs Toronto Blue Jays L51-4

Philadelphia Phillies team total runs form: last five 2-3, 1.4 runs/gm.

Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies — what the model found

Our model graded 70 betting markets for Toronto Blue Jays at Philadelphia Phillies — 20 on the game itself and 50 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
50
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 70 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 69 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Toronto Blue Jays vs Philadelphia Phillies — recent results

Philadelphia Phillies have won 3 of their last 5 games; Toronto Blue Jays have won 3 of their last 5.

Philadelphia Phillies — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W5–3LAAAway
L1–4SEAAway
W6–0SEAAway
L2–9SEAAway
W6–4STLHome
Toronto Blue Jays — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W4–3SEAHome
W8–1SEAHome
L2–13KCHome
W3–0KCHome
L3–5KCHome

Toronto Blue Jays vs Philadelphia Phillies — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Philadelphia Phillies are scoring 3.6 runs per game (4-1) while Toronto Blue Jays are at 1.8 (3-2); Philadelphia Phillies pitchers are allowing 0.6 earned runs per game versus 1.4 for Toronto Blue Jays.

3.6
Philadelphia Phillies runs/G
1.8
Toronto Blue Jays runs/G
Last 5 gamesPhiladelphia PhilliesToronto Blue Jays
Runs / game3.61.8
Hits / game5.23.8
Home runs / game0.40.2
Walks drawn / game1.21.0
Batter K / game1.62.8
Earned runs allowed / game0.61.4
Pitching K / game1.62.0
Walks allowed / game1.43.0
L5 record4-13-2

Toronto Blue Jays vs Philadelphia Phillies — recent meetings

These two have met 10 times recently: Philadelphia Phillies won 4, Toronto Blue Jays won 6.

DatePhiladelphia PhilliesToronto Blue JaysWinner
Aug 976Philadelphia Phillies
Aug 857Toronto Blue Jays
Aug 745Toronto Blue Jays
Jun 1074Philadelphia Phillies
Jun 923Toronto Blue Jays
Jun 852Philadelphia Phillies
Mar 1285Philadelphia Phillies
Mar 701Toronto Blue Jays
Feb 2857Toronto Blue Jays
Feb 2103Toronto Blue Jays

Who’s out or in doubt

22 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Philadelphia Phillies
PlayerStatus
Rafael Marchan COUT
Tanner Banks RPOUT
Felix Reyes LFOUT
Caleb Kilian RPOUT
Brad Keller RPOUT
Johan Rojas CFOUT
Adolis Garcia RFOUT
Toronto Blue Jays
PlayerStatus
Trey Yesavage SPOUT
Jameson Taillon SPOUT
Josh Smith 2BOUT
Anthony Santander RFOUT
Jonatan Clase LFOUT
Yimi Garcia RPOUT
Shane Bieber SPOUT
Joe Mantiply RPOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies — model preview

Our Toronto Blue Jays at Philadelphia Phillies prediction for August 10, 2026, plus every bet we like in the game and how confident we are in each.

On August 10, 2026 our model has run Toronto Blue Jays at Philadelphia Phillies and priced every market it can. Our strongest call is Philadelphia Phillies vs Toronto Blue Jays: Under 13 Total Runs (-345), which we rate HIGH confidence. We walk through all 2 bets we like in this game below. Everything below is our own number against the price the book is offering, written in plain English with how confident we are in words.

Every bet we like in this game

🔒 The other 2 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
43
Total Picks
58.1%
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult
09 Aug 26 Moneyline - 1st 5 Innings Toronto Blue Jays ✗ MISS
09 Aug 26 Spread Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 ✗ MISS
09 Aug 26 Spread Toronto Blue Jays -2.5 ✗ MISS
09 Aug 26 Moneyline Toronto Blue Jays ✗ MISS
09 Aug 26 Spread - 1st 5 Innings Toronto Blue Jays -0.5 ✗ MISS
09 Aug 26 Total Runs - 1st 1 Innings Over 0.5 ✗ MISS
09 Aug 26 Spread - 1st 5 Innings Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 ✗ MISS
09 Aug 26 Spread - 1st 5 Innings Toronto Blue Jays 0.5 ✗ MISS
09 Aug 26 Total Runs Over 9.5 ✓ HIT
09 Aug 26 Spread - 1st 5 Innings Toronto Blue Jays -2.5 ✗ MISS
09 Aug 26 Total Runs Over 10.5 ✓ HIT
09 Aug 26 Spread Toronto Blue Jays +1.5 ✓ HIT
09 Aug 26 Total Runs Over 8.5 ✓ HIT
09 Aug 26 Total Runs Over 7.5 ✓ HIT
09 Aug 26 Total Runs Over 11.5 ✓ HIT

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Toronto Blue Jays vs Philadelphia Phillies in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Jays vs Phillies, or as Phillies vs Jays. The most recent game between them was Sunday 9 August 2026 at Citizens Bank Park. The model has generated 20 game picks and 50 player props for this matchup. The model has recorded a hit rate of 58.1% on tracked picks between these two teams. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Final scores · 42 meetings on record
Philadelphia Phillies 24–17 across the last 42 meetings · 1 draw · these games average 9.8 runs (meetings on record since 2023)
DateGameScoreWinner
9 Aug 2026Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies7–6Philadelphia Phillies
8 Aug 2026Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies5–7Toronto Blue Jays
7 Aug 2026Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies4–5Toronto Blue Jays
10 Jun 2026Philadelphia Phillies @ Toronto Blue Jays4–7Philadelphia Phillies
9 Jun 2026Philadelphia Phillies @ Toronto Blue Jays3–2Toronto Blue Jays
8 Jun 2026Philadelphia Phillies @ Toronto Blue Jays2–5Philadelphia Phillies
12 Mar 2026Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies8–5Philadelphia Phillies
7 Mar 2026Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies0–1Toronto Blue Jays
28 Feb 2026Philadelphia Phillies @ Toronto Blue Jays7–5Toronto Blue Jays
21 Feb 2026Philadelphia Phillies @ Toronto Blue Jays3–0Toronto Blue Jays

Table shows the last 10 — the record above counts all 42 meetings on file.

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