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Model picks & player props
San Diego Padres
VS
Philadelphia Phillies

San Diego Padres vs Philadelphia Phillies Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 10, 4:27PM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

MLB
Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia
Outdoor
Tue 1 Jul 2025, 10:35PM
4
Game markets graded
0
Props graded
Answer
The model’s one call for this game: San Diego Padres (Moneyline)
The model graded 4 markets for San Diego Padres vs Philadelphia Phillies (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — a lean, not a lock. A $100 bet returns about $243 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. For the numbers: model win probability 50.6%, fair odds 1.98, book price +143, model edge +9.4%. Tip-off Tue 1 Jul 2025, 10:35PM at Citizens Bank Park.

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Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record
This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 546 of 996 right (mlb total-runs unders)
This bet type · last timeAug 10
Under 9.5
Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $170

Game picks

+EV edge in green
Moneyline
San Diego Padres
+ 3 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
San Diego PadresMoneylinePositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

San Diego Padres

  • Joe Musgrove SPOut
  • Miguel Andujar DHOut
  • Nick Pivetta SPOut
  • Samad Taylor LFOut
  • Jason Adam RPOut
  • David Morgan RPOut
  • Lucas Giolito SPOut
  • Ramon Laureano LFOut
  • Bryan Hoeing RPOut

Probable pitcher

Randy Vasquez SP

Philadelphia Phillies

  • Caleb Kilian RPDay-to-day
  • Derek Hill CFDay-to-day
  • Brad Keller RPOut
  • Tanner Banks RPOut
  • Rafael Marchan COut
  • Johan Rojas CFOut
  • Adolis Garcia RFOut

Probable pitcher

Jesus Luzardo SP
Availability updated Aug 10, 12:20AM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For San Diego Padres vs Philadelphia Phillies: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 16 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability16 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylinePhiladelphia PhilliesNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF2.8L5 RA1.4Home L54-1vs San Diego Padres L53-2

Philadelphia Phillies moneyline form: last five 3-2, 2.8 runs/gm.

Run LinePhiladelphia Phillies run lineNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF2.8L5 RA1.4Home L54-1vs San Diego Padres L53-2

Philadelphia Phillies spread form: last five 3-2, 2.8 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Philadelphia Phillies vs San Diego PadresNo line posted

Philadelphia Phillies total runs form: last five 3-2, 2.8 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsPhiladelphia Phillies team totalNo line posted
2.4runs we expect
L5 RF2.8L5 RA1.4Home L54-1vs San Diego Padres L53-2

Philadelphia Phillies team total runs form: last five 3-2, 2.8 runs/gm.

San Diego Padres @ Philadelphia Phillies — what the model found

Our model graded 4 betting markets for San Diego Padres at Philadelphia Phillies — 4 on the game itself and 0 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

4
Game markets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 4 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 3 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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San Diego Padres vs Philadelphia Phillies — recent results

Philadelphia Phillies have won 2 of their last 5 games; San Diego Padres have won 3 of their last 5.

Philadelphia Phillies — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W7–6TORHome
L5–7TORHome
L4–5TORHome
W7–3WSHHome
L4–10WSHHome
San Diego Padres — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W7–2HOUHome
L3–6HOUHome
W3–2HOUHome
W5–1ARIAway
L4–10ARIAway

Who’s out or in doubt

16 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Philadelphia Phillies
PlayerStatus
Caleb Kilian RPDAY-TO-DAY
Derek Hill CFDAY-TO-DAY
Brad Keller RPOUT
Tanner Banks RPOUT
Rafael Marchan COUT
Johan Rojas CFOUT
Adolis Garcia RFOUT
San Diego Padres
PlayerStatus
Joe Musgrove SPOUT
Miguel Andujar DHOUT
Nick Pivetta SPOUT
Samad Taylor LFOUT
Jason Adam RPOUT
David Morgan RPOUT
Lucas Giolito SPOUT
Ramon Laureano LFOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
0
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for San Diego Padres vs Philadelphia Phillies in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Padres vs Phillies, or as Phillies vs Padres. The most recent game between them was Tuesday 1 July 2025 at Citizens Bank Park. The model has generated 4 game picks for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

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