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The latest Bet Better model pick for Zack Wheeler is Over 0.5 on Pitcher - Walks.
On the Pitcher - Walks market the model assigns a model win probability of 89%, versus the book's implied 85%, for a model edge of +4.1%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 11:14AM UTC
MLB

Zack Wheeler

PHI

+4.1% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Pitcher - Walks Over 0.5 -556 (1.18)
+4.1% Edge
Boston Red Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies
Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania · Outdoor
Mon 21 Jul, 10:45PM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
88.8%
Implied Probability
84.7%
Model Edge
+4.1%
Predicted Value
—

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Pitcher - Walks88.8%—84.7%1.13+4.1%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games1/3
Last 5 games3/5
Last 10 games6/10

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AI Analysis

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Zack Wheeler (PHI) Over 0.5 Walks Allowed (-556)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The bet on Zack Wheeler for Over 0.5 in the Pitcher Walks Allowed market is substantiated by his recent performance data. On average, Wheeler has allowed 1.2 walks per game overall and 1 walk per game at home in his last five games. This trend is consistent with his performance against the Red Sox, where his average walks allowed is 0.5. These averages are all above the line of 0.5, indicating a high likelihood of this trend continuing. Additionally, despite a current overall hit streak of zero, Wheeler has a home hit streak of five, demonstrating his susceptibility to allowing hits when playing at home. Given these statistics, it's statistically likely that Wheeler will allow more than 0.5 walks in the upcoming game against the Red Sox.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Pitcher - StrikeoutsSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 3.510%
O 4.510%

Zack Wheeler MLB strikeoutsseason and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - Hits AllowedSeason & recent formNo line posted
80%hit L10
Streak4L2085%
O 2.580%
O 3.560%
O 4.540%
O 5.530%
O 6.530%
O 7.510%

Zack Wheeler MLB hits allowed: cleared over 2.5 in 80% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - WalksSeason & recent formNo line posted
70%hit L10
L2070%
O 0.570%
O 1.540%
O 2.520%

Zack Wheeler MLB walks: cleared over 0.5 in 70% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - Earned RunsSeason & recent formNo line posted
60%hit L10
2.6avg earned runs · L5
Streak3L2055%

Zack Wheeler MLB earned runs: cleared over 1.5 in 60% of the last 10 games; averaging 2.6 earned runs over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - OutsSeason & recent formNo line posted
50%hit L10
18.8avg outs · L5

Zack Wheeler MLB outs: cleared over 18.5 in 50% of the last 10 games; averaging 18.8 outs over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Zack Wheeler (PHI) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Zack Wheeler is Over 0.5 on Pitcher - Walks. The model identifies a slight edge of +4.1% on this pick. Their next game is Boston Red Sox vs Philadelphia Phillies on Monday 21 July at Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

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