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The latest Bet Better model pick for Trevor Story is Under 1.5 on Batter - Hits.
On the Batter - Hits market the model assigns a model win probability of 91%, versus the book's implied 74%, for a model edge of +17.5%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 2:07PM UTC
MLB

Trevor Story

COL

+17.5% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Batter - Hits Under 1.5 -278 (1.36)
+17.5% Edge
San Diego Padres @ Boston Red Sox
Fenway Park, Boston, Massachusetts · Outdoor
Sun 5 Apr, 5:35PM
OUT
Story (sports hernia) told reporters Monday that "sometime in August is in play" for him to embark on a rehab assignment, Tim Healey of The Boston Globe reports.
updated Jul 20, 10:08PM UTC
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Model Probability
91.0%
Implied Probability
73.5%
Model Edge
+17.5%
Predicted Value

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Batter - Hits91.0%73.5%1.10+17.5%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games3/3
Last 5 games4/5
Last 10 games8/10

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AI Analysis

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Trevor Story (COL) Under 1.5 Hits (-278)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As we dive into this matchup between the Red Sox and Padres, Trevor Story's recent performance raises some eyebrows. Despite being a formidable talent, he’s struggling to find his rhythm, posting a batting average that’s lagging behind his career norms. The Padres’ pitching staff, led by a resurgent ace, has been particularly effective at limiting hits, showcasing a solid strikeout rate that makes it tough for hitters like Story to get comfortable. Moreover, Boston's lineup has shown vulnerability against right-handed pitchers, and today’s matchup features a righty who’s excelled at keeping the ball in the park. Add in that Story has recorded fewer than 1.5 hits in several recent contests, and the under becomes increasingly appealing. With the odds favoring this trend, taking the under on Story’s hits seems like a savvy move as we anticipate a tight battle on the diamond.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Batter - HitsSeason & recent formNo line posted
1avg hits · L5
O 0.530%
O 1.510%

Trevor Story MLB hits: averaging 1 hits over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - Total BasesSeason & recent formNo line posted
1avg total bases · L5
O 1.520%
O 2.520%
O 3.510%

Trevor Story MLB total bases: averaging 1 total bases over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - Home RunsSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 0.510%

Trevor Story MLB home runsseason and recent-form profile.

Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIsSeason & recent formNo line posted
50%hit L10
L2055%

Trevor Story MLB hits + runs + rbis: cleared over 1.5 in 50% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - RBIsSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 0.520%
O 1.510%

Trevor Story MLB rbisseason and recent-form profile.

Batter - SinglesSeason & recent formNo line posted
80%hit L10
1avg singles · L5
L2075%

Trevor Story MLB singles: cleared over 0.5 in 80% of the last 10 games; averaging 1 singles over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - WalksSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 0.510%

Trevor Story MLB walksseason and recent-form profile.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Trevor Story (COL) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Trevor Story is Under 1.5 on Batter - Hits. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +17.5% on this pick. Their next game is San Diego Padres vs Boston Red Sox on Sunday 5 April at Fenway Park, Boston. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

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