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The latest Bet Better model pick for Sonny Gray is Under 4.5 on Pitcher - Strikeouts.
On the Pitcher - Strikeouts market the model assigns a model win probability of 74%, versus the book's implied 46%, for a model edge of +27.5%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Jul 20, 3:53AM UTC
MLB

Sonny Gray

CIN

+27.5% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Pitcher - Strikeouts Under 4.5 +117 (2.17)
+27.5% Edge
Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox
Fenway Park, Boston, Massachusetts · Outdoor
Sun 19 Jul, 5:35PM
Confirmed probable starter
Probable SP vs TB @ BOS
updated Jul 19, 5:35PM UTC
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
73.5%
Implied Probability
46.1%
Model Edge
+27.5%
Predicted Value
—

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Pitcher - Strikeouts73.5%—46.1%1.36+27.5%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games1/3
Last 5 games3/5
Last 10 games7/10

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AI Analysis

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Sonny Gray (CIN) Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+117)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

As the Boston Red Sox take on the Tampa Bay Rays, all eyes will be on Sonny Gray on the mound. While Gray has shown flashes of brilliance, his recent performances suggest a dip in strikeout production. Over his last few outings, he’s struggled to find the strike zone consistently, racking up only 3.38 strikeouts on average when the line is set at 4.5. The Rays are notorious for their disciplined approach at the plate, often making life difficult for even the most seasoned pitchers. With a knack for working deep counts, Tampa Bay tends to put the ball in play rather than chase strikeouts, and they’ve been known to capitalize on pitchers who can’t find their rhythm. Given Gray’s recent struggles and the Rays' patient batting style, betting the under on his strikeouts feels like the savvy play in this matchup.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Pitcher - StrikeoutsSeason & recent formNo line posted
60%hit L10
L2055%
O 2.560%
O 3.540%
O 4.520%
O 5.510%

Sonny Gray MLB strikeouts: cleared over 2.5 in 60% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - Hits AllowedSeason & recent formNo line posted
100%hit L10
Streak16L2095%
O 2.5100%
O 3.560%
O 4.540%
O 5.530%
O 6.520%
O 7.510%

Sonny Gray MLB hits allowed: cleared over 2.5 in 100% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - WalksSeason & recent formNo line posted
60%hit L10
Streak2L2065%
O 0.560%
O 1.530%

Sonny Gray MLB walks: cleared over 0.5 in 60% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - Earned RunsSeason & recent formNo line posted
80%hit L10
2.2avg earned runs · L5
L2070%

Sonny Gray MLB earned runs: cleared over 1.5 in 80% of the last 10 games; averaging 2.2 earned runs over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - OutsSeason & recent formNo line posted
70%hit L10
17.4avg outs · L5
Streak2L2060%

Sonny Gray MLB outs: cleared over 17.5 in 70% of the last 10 games; averaging 17.4 outs over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
19 Jul 26 Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox Pitcher - Strikeouts 4.5 Under +117 ✗ MISS

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About This Player

Sonny Gray (CIN) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Sonny Gray is Under 4.5 on Pitcher - Strikeouts. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +27.5% on this pick. Their next game is Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox on Sunday 19 July at Fenway Park, Boston. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

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