Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Sonny Gray is Over 0.5 on Pitcher - Earned Runs.
On the Pitcher - Earned Runs market the model assigns a model win probability of 73%, versus the book's implied 61%, for a model edge of +12.2%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Aug 9, 7:19AM UTC
Latest Model Pick
Pitcher - Earned Runs
Over 0.5
-154 (1.65)
+12.2% Edge
Chicago White Sox
@
Boston Red Sox
Fenway Park, Boston, Massachusetts · Outdoor
Thu 6 Aug, 11:10PM
The recordWhen our formula calls mlb total-runs unders: 498 of 903 right
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
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Implied Probability
60.6%
| Market | Model | Model probability | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Pitcher - Earned Runs | 72.8% | — | 60.6% | 1.37 | +12.2% |
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| Window | Hit Rate |
|---|
| Last 3 games | 1/3 |
| Last 5 games | 3/5 |
| Last 10 games | 6/10 |
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Sonny Gray (CIN) Over 0.5 Earned Runs (-154)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Boston Red Sox play Chicago White Sox in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Sonny Gray (CIN) Over 0.5 Earned Runs (-154). That is a Earned Runs bet. It was priced at -154 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $16.49 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
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Betting angles
Markets & formPitcher - StrikeoutsSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 2.570%
O 3.540%
O 4.520%
O 5.530%
Game log vs O 2.5avg 5.3 · hi 8 · lo 3
Sonny Gray MLB strikeouts: cleared over 2.5 in 70% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.
Pitcher - WalksSeason & recent formNo line posted Sonny Gray MLB walks: cleared over 1.5 in 50% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.
Pitcher - Earned RunsSeason & recent formNo line posted Sonny Gray MLB earned runs: cleared over 2.5 in 60% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.
Pitcher - OutsSeason & recent formNo line posted 70%hit L10
17.4avg outs · L5
Streak2L2060%
Sonny Gray MLB outs: cleared over 17.5 in 70% of the last 10 games; averaging 17.4 outs over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.
Sonny Gray (CIN) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Sonny Gray is Over 0.5 on Pitcher - Earned Runs. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +12.2% on this pick. Their next game is Chicago White Sox vs Boston Red Sox on Thursday 6 August at Fenway Park, Boston. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.
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