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MLB
Citi Field, Queens (NYC)
Outdoor
Thu 9 Jul 2026, 1:10 PM ET
Kansas City Royals
VS
New York Mets

Kansas City Royals vs New York Mets Prediction & Picks

Our model graded 19 markets for Kansas City Royals vs New York Mets and backs Over 9.5 hardest, a strong call, and $100 on it returns about $208.

10
Game markets graded
9
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first Free
Over 9.5 total runs
Over 9.5 Total Runs
You bet$10 If it wins$20.80Best price+108
Our confidenceHigh
Chance to win63.5%
The price says48.1%

The model graded 19 markets for Kansas City Royals vs New York Mets (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — HIGH confidence. A $100 bet returns about $208 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Thu 9 Jul 2026, 1:10 PM ET at Citi Field.

This game's bets

The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Total Runs Over 9.5 High64% chance +108
Total Runs Members only High68% chance Members
Batter - Total Bases × 7 props Highup to 89% Members
Batter - Hits × 2 props Highup to 85% Members
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%
Every MLB game on today's board →

Kansas City Royals and New York Mets last met on Thu 9 Jul 2026: New York Mets won 7-3. Their next game gets a fresh preview here the moment it is priced. Today's board: every MLB game priced right now.

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Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Total Runs
Over
9.5
+108
+ 9 more markets
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All 10 game markets and 9 player props for this matchup — every line, every call the model backs — plus every pick across the slate. Join 75,276+ members.

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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Kansas City Royals

  • Ryan Bergert SPOut
  • Mitch Spence RPOut
  • Nick Mears RPOut
  • Luinder Avila SPOut
  • Stephen Kolek SPOut
  • Cole Ragans SPOut

New York Mets

  • Jorge Polanco DHOut
  • Tylor Megill SPOut
  • Reed Garrett RPOut
  • Pierson Ohl RPOut
  • Jared Young 1BOut
Availability updated Nov 3, 7:03PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Kansas City Royals vs New York Mets: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 11 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability11 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Francisco Alvarez NYM Batter - Total Bases
Carson Benge NYM Batter - Total Bases
Bobby Witt Jr. Batter - Hits
A.J. Ewing Batter - Total Bases
Jac Caglianone Batter - Total Bases

+ 9 player props graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineNew York MetsNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF5.4L5 RA3.2Home L53-2vs Kansas City Royals L54-1

New York Mets moneyline form: last five 3-2, 5.4 runs/gm.

Run LineNew York Mets run lineNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF5.4L5 RA3.2Home L53-2vs Kansas City Royals L54-1

New York Mets spread form: last five 3-2, 5.4 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · New York Mets vs Kansas City RoyalsNo line posted

New York Mets total runs form: last five 3-2, 5.4 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsNew York Mets team totalNo line posted
7.0runs we expect
L5 RF5.4L5 RA3.2Home L53-2vs Kansas City Royals L54-1

New York Mets team total runs form: last five 3-2, 5.4 runs/gm.

Kansas City Royals @ New York Mets — what the model found

Our model graded 19 betting markets for Kansas City Royals at New York Mets — 10 on the game itself and 9 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

10
Game markets graded
9
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 19 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 18 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Kansas City Royals vs New York Mets — recent results

New York Mets have won 2 of their last 5 games; Kansas City Royals have won 2 of their last 5.

New York Mets — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L4–6WSHAway
W7–1WSHAway
L6–7WSHAway
W7–2TEXAway
L1–3TEXAway
Kansas City Royals — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W3–2CLEHome
L5–11CLEHome
L9–12CLEHome
L1–9CHWHome
W5–4CHWHome

Kansas City Royals vs New York Mets — recent meetings

These two have met 3 times recently: New York Mets won 2, Kansas City Royals won 1.

DateNew York MetsKansas City RoyalsWinner
Jul 973New York Mets
Jul 862New York Mets
Jul 71216Kansas City Royals

Who’s out or in doubt

11 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

New York Mets
PlayerStatus
Jorge Polanco DHOUT
Tylor Megill SPOUT
Reed Garrett RPOUT
Pierson Ohl RPOUT
Jared Young 1BOUT
Kansas City Royals
PlayerStatus
Ryan Bergert SPOUT
Mitch Spence RPOUT
Nick Mears RPOUT
Luinder Avila SPOUT
Stephen Kolek SPOUT
Cole Ragans SPOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Kansas City Royals @ New York Mets — model preview

Deep dive into New York Mets vs Kansas City Royals MLB game. Find value betting opportunities. Includes analysis on key players like Salvador Perez. Check out MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, New York Mets vs Kansas City Royals stats and odds.

Salvador Perez (KCR) Under 1.5 Total Bases (-159)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Mets gear up to face the Royals on July 9, the spotlight shines brightly on Salvador Perez. While Perez has been a powerhouse in the lineup, recent trends suggest he might struggle to exceed 1.5 total bases in this matchup. The Mets’ pitching staff has been on a roll, boasting a solid average against right-handed batters, which doesn’t bode well for Perez’s chances. Moreover, over his last few games, he’s faced some tough competition and has seen his batting average dip, which could foreshadow another challenging outing. The Royals’ overall struggles at the plate against quality pitching further underscore the likelihood of Perez falling short in this matchup. With the Mets aiming for a strong home performance, the under on 1.5 total bases for Perez seems to align perfectly with the current dynamics of both teams. Keep an eye on this one; the trends are compelling.

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Kansas City Royals vs New York Mets in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Royals vs Mets, or as Mets vs Royals. The most recent game between them was Thursday 9 July 2026 at Citi Field. The model has generated 10 game picks and 9 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Kansas City Royals vs New York Mets: game facts

Past meetings and recent results

Where they last met

  • 9 Jul 2026New York Mets beat Kansas City Royals 7-3 at home
  • 8 Jul 2026New York Mets beat Kansas City Royals 6-2 at home
  • 7 Jul 2026Kansas City Royals beat New York Mets 16-12 on the road

Kansas City Royals: last 5 results

  1. 27 Sep 2026Wonvs Cleveland Guardians 3-2
  2. 26 Sep 2026Lostvs Cleveland Guardians 5-11
  3. 25 Sep 2026Lostvs Cleveland Guardians 9-12
  4. 24 Sep 2026Lostvs Chicago White Sox 1-9
  5. 23 Sep 2026Wonvs Chicago White Sox 5-4

New York Mets: last 5 results

  1. 27 Sep 2026Lostat Washington Nationals 4-6
  2. 26 Sep 2026Wonat Washington Nationals 7-1
  3. 25 Sep 2026Lostat Washington Nationals 6-7
  4. 24 Sep 2026Lostat Texas Rangers 1-3
  5. 23 Sep 2026Wonat Texas Rangers 7-2

Quick answers

Who won the last New York Mets vs Kansas City Royals game? New York Mets won their last meeting 7-3 on 9 July 2026.

How have Kansas City Royals and New York Mets done lately? Kansas City Royals won 2 and lost 3 of the last 5 results we hold. New York Mets won 2 and lost 3 of the last 5 results we hold.

From the final scores we hold. Newest game first.

Kansas City Royals vs New York Mets: the season so far

From every final score this season

Kansas City Royals are 69-93 this season and New York Mets are 74-88. New York Mets are 36-45 at home. Kansas City Royals are 28-53 on the road. New York Mets score 4.3 runs a game and let in 4.5. Kansas City Royals score 4.3 and let in 5.0. New York Mets games have averaged 8.8 runs in total; Kansas City Royals games have averaged 9.3.

SeasonKansas City RoyalsNew York Mets
Won-lost69-9374-88
At home41-4036-45
On the road28-5338-43
Last 102-85-5
Runs scored a game4.34.3
Runs let in a game5.04.5
Runs scored at home4.94.1
Runs scored away3.64.5
Against winning sides21-4835-46
Current runWon 1Lost 1
Biggest win15-1 vs Philadelphia Phillies14-3 vs Atlanta Braves
Heaviest loss22-1 at Chicago White Sox15-3 at Philadelphia Phillies

Teams they have both played

  • Against Washington Nationals: New York Mets lost 4-6 on the road; Kansas City Royals won 6-2 on the road.
  • Against Texas Rangers: New York Mets lost 1-3 on the road; Kansas City Royals lost 2-4 at home.
  • Against Philadelphia Phillies: New York Mets lost 2-7 at home; Kansas City Royals won 15-1 at home.

Quick answers

How are New York Mets doing this season? New York Mets are 74-88 this season: 36-45 at home and 38-43 on the road.

How many runs do Kansas City Royals score a game? Kansas City Royals score 4.3 runs a game this season and let in 5.0, across 162 games.

Wins and losses come from the final score, overtime included. “Against winning sides” counts games against teams that have won more than half their games this season.

Kansas City Royals vs New York Mets head-to-head record

Final scores · 12 meetings on record
Even at 6–6 across the last 12 meetings · these games average 10.2 runs (meetings on record since 2023)

Last meeting: Thu 9 Jul 2026, Kansas City Royals at New York Mets: the Mets won 7-3.

DateGameScoreWinner
9 Jul 2026Kansas City Royals @ New York Mets7–3New York Mets
8 Jul 2026Kansas City Royals @ New York Mets6–2New York Mets
7 Jul 2026Kansas City Royals @ New York Mets12–16Kansas City Royals
13 Jul 2025New York Mets @ Kansas City Royals3–2Kansas City Royals
12 Jul 2025New York Mets @ Kansas City Royals1–3New York Mets
11 Jul 2025New York Mets @ Kansas City Royals3–8New York Mets
14 Apr 2024Kansas City Royals @ New York Mets2–1New York Mets
13 Apr 2024Kansas City Royals @ New York Mets7–11Kansas City Royals
12 Apr 2024Kansas City Royals @ New York Mets6–1New York Mets
3 Aug 2023New York Mets @ Kansas City Royals9–2Kansas City Royals

Table shows the last 10 — the record above counts all 12 meetings on file.

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