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Model picks & player props
Philadelphia Phillies
VS
Kansas City Royals

Philadelphia Phillies vs Kansas City Royals Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 16, 7:16PM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

MLB
Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City
Outdoor
Mon 6 Jul 2026, 6:10PM
14
Game markets graded
8
Props graded
Answer
The model’s one call for this game: Over 10 (Total Runs)
The model graded 22 markets for Philadelphia Phillies vs Kansas City Royals (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — a lean, not a lock. A $100 bet returns about $287 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. For the numbers: model win probability 38.4%, fair odds 2.60, book price +187, model edge +3.5%. Tip-off Mon 6 Jul 2026, 6:10PM at Kauffman Stadium.
This game is done — the model’s call CASHED
Over 10 · $100 returned $287

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This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 693 of 1,394 right (mlb total-runs unders)
This bet type · last timeAug 16
Under 9.5
Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $195
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Total Runs
Over
12
+ 13 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

Pro shows you, in plain English, how far each price is off — and how much to put on it. No maths needed on your side.

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Philadelphia Phillies

  • Derek Hill CFDay-to-day
  • Trea Turner SSDay-to-day
  • Tanner Banks RPOut
  • Rafael Marchan COut
  • Caleb Kilian RPOut
  • Brad Keller RPOut
  • Johan Rojas CFOut
  • Adolis Garcia RFOut

Probable pitcher

Andrew Painter SP

Kansas City Royals

  • Beck Way RPOut
  • Nick Mears RPOut
  • Carlos Estevez RPOut
  • Tony Gonsolin SPOut
  • Maikel Garcia 3BOut
  • Vinnie Pasquantino 1BOut
  • Luinder Avila SPOut
  • Stephen Kolek SPOut
  • Connor Seabold RPOut
  • Cole Ragans SPOut
  • Jonathan India 2BOut
  • James McArthur RPOut
  • Alec Marsh SPOut

Probable pitcher

Noah Cameron SP
Availability updated Aug 16, 8:07PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Philadelphia Phillies vs Kansas City Royals: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 21 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability21 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Nick Loftin Batter - Hits
Bobby Witt Jr. KCR Batter - Hits
Bobby Witt Jr. KCR Batter - Total Bases
Trea Turner LAD Batter - Hits
Alec Bohm Batter - Total Bases

+ 8 player props graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineKansas City RoyalsNo line posted
1-4L5 record
L5 RF1.8L5 RA1.8Home L51-4vs Philadelphia Phillies L55-0

Kansas City Royals moneyline form: last five 1-4, 1.8 runs/gm.

Run LineKansas City Royals run lineNo line posted
1-4L5 record
L5 RF1.8L5 RA1.8Home L51-4vs Philadelphia Phillies L55-0

Kansas City Royals spread form: last five 1-4, 1.8 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Kansas City Royals vs Philadelphia PhilliesNo line posted

Kansas City Royals total runs form: last five 1-4, 1.8 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsKansas City Royals team totalNo line posted
1.9runs we expect
L5 RF1.8L5 RA1.8Home L51-4vs Philadelphia Phillies L55-0

Kansas City Royals team total runs form: last five 1-4, 1.8 runs/gm.

Philadelphia Phillies @ Kansas City Royals — what the model found

Our model graded 22 betting markets for Philadelphia Phillies at Kansas City Royals — 14 on the game itself and 8 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

14
Game markets graded
8
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 22 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 21 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Philadelphia Phillies vs Kansas City Royals — recent results

Kansas City Royals have won 1 of their last 5 games; Philadelphia Phillies have won 3 of their last 5.

Kansas City Royals — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L0–1LAAAway
W7–6LAAAway
L2–4LADAway
L4–5LADAway
L5–6LADAway
Philadelphia Phillies — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W9–1MINAway
W7–1MINAway
L1–7STLAway
L0–2STLAway
W6–5STLAway

Philadelphia Phillies vs Kansas City Royals — recent meetings

These two have met 3 times recently: Kansas City Royals won 2, Philadelphia Phillies won 1.

DateKansas City RoyalsPhiladelphia PhilliesWinner
Jul 6151Kansas City Royals
Jul 552Kansas City Royals
Jul 516Philadelphia Phillies

Who’s out or in doubt

21 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Kansas City Royals
PlayerStatus
Beck Way RPOUT
Nick Mears RPOUT
Carlos Estevez RPOUT
Tony Gonsolin SPOUT
Maikel Garcia 3BOUT
Vinnie Pasquantino 1BOUT
Luinder Avila SPOUT
Stephen Kolek SPOUT
Philadelphia Phillies
PlayerStatus
Derek Hill CFDAY-TO-DAY
Trea Turner SSDAY-TO-DAY
Tanner Banks RPOUT
Rafael Marchan COUT
Caleb Kilian RPOUT
Brad Keller RPOUT
Johan Rojas CFOUT
Adolis Garcia RFOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Philadelphia Phillies @ Kansas City Royals — model preview

Expert analysis and top MLB betting picks for Kansas City Royals vs Philadelphia Phillies. Includes analysis on key players like Brandon Marsh. Discover MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, Kansas City Royals vs Philadelphia Phillies stats and odds.

Brandon Marsh (LAA) Under 1.5 Total Bases (-164)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As we dive into Monday’s matchup between the Royals and the Phillies, all eyes should be on Brandon Marsh’s total bases prop. While he’s shown flashes of brilliance this season, recent trends suggest he might struggle to reach the 1.5 total bases mark. Facing a Royals pitching staff that's been quietly effective, Marsh finds himself up against a right-hander who has kept left-handed bats in check. Moreover, Marsh’s performance over the last few weeks has been inconsistent, often falling short against quality pitching. With the Phillies also battling through a rough patch offensively, it’s likely we’ll see a lower-scoring affair. Considering the model’s prediction of just 1.14 total bases for Marsh, betting the under feels like a prudent move. The odds align with his recent performance trends, making this a compelling play as we watch the action unfold in Kansas City.

🔒 The other 5 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
13
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult
06 Jul 26 Total Runs Over 9 ✓ HIT
06 Jul 26 Total Runs Over 10 ✓ HIT
06 Jul 26 Total Runs Over 9.5 ✓ HIT
06 Jul 26 Total Runs Over 8 ✓ HIT
06 Jul 26 Total Runs Over 11 ✓ HIT
06 Jul 26 Total Runs Over 8.5 ✓ HIT
06 Jul 26 Total Runs Over 7.5 ✓ HIT
06 Jul 26 Spread Philadelphia Phillies -4 ✗ MISS
06 Jul 26 Total Runs Over 10.5 ✓ HIT
06 Jul 26 Spread Philadelphia Phillies -3 ✗ MISS
06 Jul 26 Total Runs Over 12 ✓ HIT
06 Jul 26 Spread Philadelphia Phillies -3.5 ✗ MISS
06 Jul 26 Total Runs Over 11.5 ✓ HIT

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Philadelphia Phillies vs Kansas City Royals in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Phillies vs Royals, or as Royals vs Phillies. The most recent game between them was Monday 6 July 2026 at Kauffman Stadium. The model has generated 14 game picks and 8 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Last time they played

Final scores · last 3 meetings
Kansas City Royals 2–1 across the last 3 meetings
DateGameScoreWinner
6 Jul 2026Philadelphia Phillies @ Kansas City Royals15–1Kansas City Royals
5 Jul 2026Philadelphia Phillies @ Kansas City Royals1–6Philadelphia Phillies
5 Jul 2026Philadelphia Phillies @ Kansas City Royals5–2Kansas City Royals
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