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Model picks & player props
Baltimore Orioles
VS
Houston Astros

Baltimore Orioles vs Houston Astros Picks & Predictions

Model updated Jul 17, 8:11AM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

MLB
Minute Maid Park, Houston
Indoor
Sat 18 Jul 2026, 12:10AM
20
Game Picks
8
Player Props
Answer
Model lean: Houston Astros (Moneyline - 1st 5 Innings)
For Baltimore Orioles vs Houston Astros (MLB), model win probability 78.8%, fair odds 1.27, book price -110, model edge +26.4%, this is your free pick — unlock every other market and all player props with Pro. Tip-off Sat 18 Jul 2026, 12:10AM at Minute Maid Park.
Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record

Game picks

+EV edge in green
Moneyline - 1st 5 Innings
Houston Astros
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
Houston AstrosMoneyline - 1st 5 InningsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Houston AstrosSpread - 1st 5 InningsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Houston AstrosMoneylinePositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Houston AstrosSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Houston AstrosSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Houston AstrosSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Houston AstrosSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Houston AstrosSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Houston AstrosSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Houston AstrosSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Houston AstrosSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Baltimore Orioles

  • Blaze Alexander 3BOut
  • Keegan Akin RPOut
  • Ryan Helsley RPOut
  • Felix Bautista RPOut
  • Colin Selby RPOut
  • Chris Bassitt SPOut
  • Ryan Mountcastle 1BOut
  • Jordan Westburg 3BOut

Houston Astros

  • Mike Burrows SPOut
  • Brice Matthews CFDay-to-day
  • Ronel Blanco SPOut
  • Bennett Sousa RPOut
  • Hayden Wesneski SPOut
  • Kai-Wei Teng RPOut
  • Brandon Walter SPOut
  • Carlos Correa SSOut
Availability updated Jul 16, 11:43PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Baltimore Orioles vs Houston Astros: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 16 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability16 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Yordan Alvarez HOU Batter - Total Bases 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Jackson Holliday BAL Batter - Hits 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Colton Cowser Batter - Hits 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Christian Walker HOU Batter - Total Bases 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Taylor Trammell Batter - Hits 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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Betting angles

3 markets live
MoneylineHouston Astros to win-110+12.6% edge
65%model win %
4-1L5 record
L5 RF4.2L5 RA2.6Home L53-2vs Baltimore Orioles L53-2

Houston Astros moneyline vs Baltimore Orioles is live with a model 65% read and a +12.6% model edge; L5 record 4-1.

Total RunsGame total · Houston Astros vs Baltimore OriolesOver 6.5 -294+9.6% edge
84%over %
8.9proj. runs
L5 RF4.2L5 RA2.6Home L53-2vs Baltimore Orioles L53-2O/U6-4

Houston Astros total runs vs Baltimore Orioles is live with a model 84% read and a +9.6% model edge; proj. runs 8.9.

Run LineHouston Astros run line-2.5 +280+9.4% edge
+0.8proj. margin
L5 RF4.2L5 RA2.6Home L53-2vs Baltimore Orioles L53-2

Houston Astros spread vs Baltimore Orioles is live with a model 36% read and a +9.4% model edge; proj. margin +0.8.

Team Total RunsHouston Astros team totalNo line posted
2.9implied team total
L5 RF4.2L5 RA2.6Home L53-2vs Baltimore Orioles L53-2

Houston Astros team total runs form: last five 4-1, 4.2 runs/gm.

Baltimore Orioles vs Houston Astros — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Houston Astros are scoring 4.2 runs per game (4-1) while Baltimore Orioles are at 5.0 (4-1); Houston Astros pitchers are allowing 2.6 earned runs per game versus 1.6 for Baltimore Orioles.

4.2
Houston Astros runs/G
5.0
Baltimore Orioles runs/G
Last 5 gamesHouston AstrosBaltimore Orioles
Runs / game4.25.0
Hits / game4.65.2
Home runs / game1.01.4
Walks drawn / game3.22.2
Batter K / game2.62.0
Earned runs allowed / game2.61.6
Pitching K / game2.23.4
Walks allowed / game2.81.0
L5 record4-14-1

Baltimore Orioles @ Houston Astros — model preview

<p>Winning baseball bets for Houston Astros vs Baltimore Orioles? We break down odds and insights. Includes analysis on key players like Dean Kremer. Explore MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, Houston Astros vs Baltimore Orioles stats and odds.</p>

Dean Kremer (BAL) Over 0.5 Walks Allowed (-500)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The bet on Dean Kremer for Over 0.5 in the Pitcher Walks Allowed market is a solid choice based on his recent performances. Kremer's overall average for walks allowed in the last five games is 0.8, which is above the betting line of 0.5. This trend is consistent in his away games, where his average walks allowed is 1. Against the Astros, Kremer's average walks allowed increases to 1.5, suggesting a likelihood of him allowing at least one walk. Despite his current hit streak being zero, his average innings pitched and outs averages indicate he stays in the game long enough to potentially allow a walk. The data suggests that Kremer is more likely to allow a walk than not, making the Over 0.5 bet a good choice.

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
0
Total Picks
Hit Rate
DateMarketPickResult

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Baltimore Orioles vs Houston Astros in the MLB. The most recent or upcoming game is scheduled for Saturday 18 July 2026 at Minute Maid Park. The model has generated 20 game picks and 8 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.