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The latest Bet Better model pick for Isaac Paredes is Under 1.5 on Batter - Total Bases.
On the Batter - Total Bases market the model assigns a model win probability of 75%, versus the book's implied 65%, for a model edge of +9.4%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Jul 20, 3:52AM UTC
MLB

Isaac Paredes

TBR

+9.4% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Batter - Total Bases Under 1.5 -189 (1.53)
+9.4% Edge
Baltimore Orioles @ Houston Astros
Minute Maid Park, Houston, Texas · Indoor
Sun 19 Jul, 6:10PM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
74.8%
Implied Probability
65.4%
Model Edge
+9.4%
Predicted Value
—

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Batter - Total Bases74.8%—65.4%1.34+9.4%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games0/3
Last 5 games0/5
Last 10 games0/10

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AI Analysis

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Isaac Paredes (TBR) Under 1.5 Total Bases (-189)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Astros prepare to host the Orioles, all eyes will be on Isaac Paredes, but betting on him to go over 1.5 total bases feels like a stretch. Paredes has been hitting well lately, but he faces Houston’s elite pitching staff, which thrives on limiting opponent scoring. The Astros boast a stingy team ERA, especially at home, making it tough for any batter to find their rhythm. Additionally, Paredes has struggled against right-handed pitching this season, and with Houston’s ace on the mound, it’s likely he will be challenged. The Astros' defense is well-versed in shutting down hitters, which adds to the difficulty. Given the numbers and trends, betting the under on Paredes’ total bases makes sense here. In a game where the Astros will look to stifle the Orioles, it’s hard to envision Paredes breaking through in a meaningful way.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Batter - HitsSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 0.538%
O 1.513%

Isaac Paredes MLB hitsseason and recent-form profile.

Batter - Total BasesSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 1.525%
O 2.525%
O 3.513%
Game log vs O 1.5avg 1.5 · hi 3 · lo 0
0312

Isaac Paredes MLB total basesseason and recent-form profile.

Batter - Home RunsSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 0.513%

Isaac Paredes MLB home runsseason and recent-form profile.

Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIsSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 0.538%
O 1.538%
O 2.538%
O 3.525%
O 4.513%

Isaac Paredes MLB hits + runs + rbisseason and recent-form profile.

Batter - RBIsSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 0.525%
O 1.513%

Isaac Paredes MLB rbisseason and recent-form profile.

Batter - Runs ScoredSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 0.538%
O 1.525%

Isaac Paredes MLB runs scoredseason and recent-form profile.

Batter - SinglesSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 0.525%

Isaac Paredes MLB singlesseason and recent-form profile.

Batter - WalksSeason & recent formNo line posted
50%hit L10

Isaac Paredes MLB walks: cleared over 0.5 in 50% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
19 Jul 26 Baltimore Orioles @ Houston Astros Batter - Total Bases 1.5 Under -189 ✓ HIT
18 Jul 26 Baltimore Orioles @ Houston Astros Batter - Total Bases 1.5 Under -179 ✗ MISS
08 Jul 26 Houston Astros @ Washington Nationals Batter - Total Bases 1.5 Under -189 ✓ HIT
06 Jul 26 Houston Astros @ Washington Nationals Batter - Total Bases — — — Pending

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About This Player

Isaac Paredes (TBR) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Isaac Paredes is Under 1.5 on Batter - Total Bases. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +9.4% on this pick. Their next game is Baltimore Orioles vs Houston Astros on Sunday 19 July at Minute Maid Park, Houston. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

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