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The latest Bet Better model pick for Jose Altuve is Under 1.5 on Batter - Total Bases.
On the Batter - Total Bases market the model assigns a model win probability of 75%, versus the book's implied 62%, for a model edge of +13.6%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Jul 17, 8:01AM UTC
MLB

Jose Altuve

HOU

+13.6% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Batter - Total Bases Under 1.5 -161 (1.62)
+13.6% Edge
Houston Astros @ Washington Nationals
Nationals Park, Washington, District of Columbia · Outdoor
Wed 8 Jul, 10:45PM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
75.3%
Implied Probability
61.7%
Model Edge
+13.6%
Predicted Value
—

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Batter - Total Bases75.3%—61.7%1.33+13.6%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games0/0
Last 5 games0/0
Last 10 games0/0

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AI Analysis

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Jose Altuve (HOU) Under 1.5 Total Bases (-161)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Nationals gear up to face the Astros, all eyes will be on Jose Altuve, but recent trends suggest that taking the under on his total bases might be wise. Over the last week, Altuve has struggled to find his groove, hitting just .220 with minimal extra-base hits. Meanwhile, the Nationals' pitching staff has quietly been solid, especially at home, where they hold a respectable 3.50 ERA. Consider too that the Astros have faced some tough left-handed pitchers recently, and tonight’s matchup against a southpaw could further dampen Altuve’s production. Historically, he’s been less effective against lefties, which adds another layer to this under bet. With the model predicting just under one total base for Altuve, it feels like the perfect storm for an underplay. Expect a gritty game where Altuve might just find it tough to make a significant impact at the plate.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 2 of last 3(67%)

Betting angles

Markets & form
Batter - HitsSeason & recent formNo line posted
60%hit L10
Streak3L2075%

Jose Altuve MLB hits: cleared over 0.5 in 60% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - Total BasesSeason & recent formNo line posted
60%hit L10
Streak3L2075%
O 0.560%

Jose Altuve MLB total bases: cleared over 0.5 in 60% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIsSeason & recent formNo line posted
70%hit L10
Streak3L2080%

Jose Altuve MLB hits + runs + rbis: cleared over 0.5 in 70% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - WalksSeason & recent formNo line posted
0.2avg walks · L5

Jose Altuve MLB walks: averaging 0.2 walks over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
08 Jul 26 Houston Astros @ Washington Nationals Batter - Total Bases 1.5 Under -161 ✓ HIT
06 Jul 26 Houston Astros @ Washington Nationals Batter - Hits 1.5 Under -227 ✓ HIT
06 Jul 26 Houston Astros @ Washington Nationals Batter - Total Bases 1.5 Under -130 ✗ MISS

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About This Player

Jose Altuve (HOU) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Jose Altuve is Under 1.5 on Batter - Total Bases. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +13.6% on this pick. Their next game is Houston Astros vs Washington Nationals on Wednesday 8 July at Nationals Park, Washington. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

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