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The latest Bet Better model pick for Gunnar Henderson is Under 1.5 on Batter - Total Bases.
On the Batter - Total Bases market the model assigns a model win probability of 73%, versus the book's implied 63%, for a model edge of +10.9%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 2:19PM UTC
MLB

Gunnar Henderson

MLB

+10.9% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Batter - Total Bases Under 1.5 -167 (1.60)
+10.9% Edge
Baltimore Orioles @ Houston Astros
Minute Maid Park, Houston, Texas · Indoor
Sun 19 Jul, 6:10PM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
73.4%
Implied Probability
62.5%
Model Edge
+10.9%
Predicted Value
—

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Batter - Total Bases73.4%—62.5%1.36+10.9%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games1/3
Last 5 games2/5
Last 10 games4/10

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AI Analysis

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Gunnar Henderson (NA) Under 1.5 Total Bases (-167)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Houston Astros prepare to face the Baltimore Orioles, all eyes will be on Gunnar Henderson. While he’s shown flashes of brilliance this season, recent trends suggest he may struggle against the Astros’ formidable pitching. Houston’s staff has been particularly stingy at home, boasting a remarkable 3.10 ERA. When you dig deeper, Henderson’s performance against elite breaking balls raises some red flags; he’s hitting just .215 against them this season. Moreover, the Astros are no slouches in the field, and their advanced scouting is likely to expose any weaknesses in Henderson’s swing. With the odds leaning towards the under at 1.5 total bases, it’s hard to overlook the fact that Henderson has only surpassed this mark in roughly 37% of his games recently. As the pressure mounts in a key matchup, it may be a tough day at the office for the young slugger.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Batter - HitsSeason & recent formNo line posted
50%hit L10
Streak4L2050%
O 0.550%
O 1.530%
Game log vs O 0.5avg 0.6 · hi 2 · lo 0
02010

Gunnar Henderson MLB hits: cleared over 0.5 in 50% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - Total BasesSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 1.540%
O 2.520%
Game log vs O 1.5avg 0.5 · hi 1 · lo 0
1001

Gunnar Henderson MLB total basesseason and recent-form profile.

Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIsSeason & recent formNo line posted
70%hit L10
Streak5L2075%
O 0.570%
O 1.550%
O 2.520%
O 3.510%

Gunnar Henderson MLB hits + runs + rbis: cleared over 0.5 in 70% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - RBIsSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 0.520%

Gunnar Henderson MLB rbisseason and recent-form profile.

Batter - Runs ScoredSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 0.540%
O 1.510%

Gunnar Henderson MLB runs scoredseason and recent-form profile.

Batter - SinglesSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 0.540%
O 1.510%

Gunnar Henderson MLB singlesseason and recent-form profile.

Batter - StrikeoutsSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 0.520%

Gunnar Henderson MLB strikeoutsseason and recent-form profile.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
19 Jul 26 Baltimore Orioles @ Houston Astros Batter - Total Bases 1.5 Under -167 ✓ HIT
18 Jul 26 Baltimore Orioles @ Houston Astros Batter - Total Bases 1.5 Under -159 ✗ MISS
08 Jul 26 Chicago Cubs @ Baltimore Orioles Batter - Hits 1.5 Under -263 ✓ HIT
08 Jul 26 Chicago Cubs @ Baltimore Orioles Batter - Total Bases — — — Pending
07 Jul 26 Chicago Cubs @ Baltimore Orioles Batter - Hits — — — Pending
07 Jul 26 Chicago Cubs @ Baltimore Orioles Batter - Total Bases — — — Pending

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About This Player

Gunnar Henderson is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Gunnar Henderson is Under 1.5 on Batter - Total Bases. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +10.9% on this pick. Their next game is Baltimore Orioles vs Houston Astros on Sunday 19 July at Minute Maid Park, Houston. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

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