SYSTEM STATUS: Online WIN: WON: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Los Angeles Dodgers (Arizona Diamondbacks -1 @ +291) WIN: WON: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants (Colorado Rockies 5.5 @ +320) WIN: WON: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Los Angeles Dodgers (Arizona Diamondbacks 1.5 @ -101) WIN: WON: Geelong Cats @ Greater Western Sydney Giants (Greater Western Sydney Giants @ +136) WIN: WON: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants (Colorado Rockies 5.5 @ +320) WIN: WON: Geelong Cats @ Greater Western Sydney Giants (Greater Western Sydney Giants @ +139) WIN: WON: Toronto Blue Jays @ San Diego Padres (Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 @ +162) WIN: WON: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Los Angeles Dodgers (Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 @ +330) WIN: WON: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Los Angeles Dodgers (Arizona Diamondbacks 1.5 @ -106) WIN: WON: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Los Angeles Dodgers (Arizona Diamondbacks 1 @ +154) RESULT: WON: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Los Angeles Dodgers (Arizona Diamondbacks -1 @ +291) RESULT: WON: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants (Colorado Rockies 5.5 @ +320) RESULT: WON: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Los Angeles Dodgers (Arizona Diamondbacks 1.5 @ -101) RESULT: WON: Geelong Cats @ Greater Western Sydney Giants (Greater Western Sydney Giants @ +136) RESULT: WON: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants (Colorado Rockies 5.5 @ +320) RESULT: WON: Geelong Cats @ Greater Western Sydney Giants (Greater Western Sydney Giants @ +139) RESULT: WON: Toronto Blue Jays @ San Diego Padres (Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 @ +162) RESULT: WON: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Los Angeles Dodgers (Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 @ +330) RESULT: WON: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Los Angeles Dodgers (Arizona Diamondbacks 1.5 @ -106) RESULT: WON: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Los Angeles Dodgers (Arizona Diamondbacks 1 @ +154)
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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Miguel Amaya is Under 1.5 on Batter - Hits.
On the Batter - Hits market the model assigns a model win probability of 91%, versus the book's implied 76%, for a model edge of +14.3%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Jul 12, 7:20AM UTC
MLB

Miguel Amaya

MLB

+14.3% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Batter - Hits Under 1.5 -323 (1.31)
+14.3% Edge
Chicago Cubs @ Philadelphia Phillies
Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
90.7%
Implied Probability
76.3%
Model Edge
+14.3%
Predicted Value

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Batter - Hits90.7%76.3%1.10+14.3%

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Beat the closing line — our published picks in this player's games beat the closing line 0 of 36 times (0%), +41.0% avg CLV. Verified closing-line value.

Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games0/0
Last 5 games0/0
Last 10 games0/0

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AI Analysis

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Miguel Amaya (NA) Under 1.5 Hits (-323)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Phillies gear up to face the Cubs, all eyes will be on Miguel Amaya, who’s finding himself in a tough spot against Philadelphia's pitching staff. The Phillies have been formidable at home, with their starters boasting an impressive strikeout rate that could keep Amaya in check. He’s struggled recently, managing just one hit in his last few games, and facing a pitcher like Zack Wheeler, who thrives on getting batters to chase, only adds to the challenge. Amaya’s current form and Wheeler’s electric stuff suggest that getting two hits off him tonight is a tall order. With the Cubs’ lineup also experiencing inconsistency, it’s hard to see Amaya surpassing the 1.5 hit mark. Given these dynamics, taking the under seems like a savvy move as the Phillies aim to extend their dominance at home.

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Pick History & Track Record

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Miguel Amaya is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Miguel Amaya is Under 1.5 on Batter - Hits. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +14.3% on this pick. Their next game is Chicago Cubs vs Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

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