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Model picks & player props
New York Mets
VS
Chicago Cubs

New York Mets vs Chicago Cubs Picks & Predictions

Model updated Jul 21, 1:07PM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

MLB
Wrigley Field, Chicago
Outdoor
Sat 18 Apr 2026, 6:20PM
20
Game Picks
2
Player Props
Answer
Model lean: Chicago Cubs -2.5 (Spread)
For New York Mets vs Chicago Cubs (MLB), model win probability 44.1%, fair odds 2.27, book price +310, model edge +19.7%, this is your free pick — unlock every other market and all player props with Pro. Tip-off Sat 18 Apr 2026, 6:20PM at Wrigley Field.
Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record

Game picks

+EV edge in green
Spread
Chicago Cubs
-2.5
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
Chicago CubsSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Chicago CubsSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Chicago CubsSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Chicago CubsMoneylinePositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

New York Mets

  • Clay Holmes SPOut
  • Justin Hagenman RPOut
  • Mark Vientos 1BOut
  • Austin Warren RPOut
  • Dedniel Nunez RPOut
  • Reed Garrett RPOut
  • Tylor Megill SPOut

Probable pitcher

Freddy Peralta SP

Chicago Cubs

  • Trent Thornton RPDay-to-day
  • Phil Maton RPOut
  • Shelby Miller RPOut
  • Hunter Harvey RPOut
  • Ben Brown RPOut
  • Ethan Roberts RPOut
  • Matt Shaw RFOut
  • Daniel Palencia RPOut
  • Edward Cabrera SPOut
  • Hoby Milner RPOut
  • Justin Steele SPOut
  • Riley Martin RPOut
  • Porter Hodge RPOut
  • Cade Horton SPOut
  • Tyler Austin 1BOut

Probable pitcher

Jameson Taillon SP
Availability updated Jul 21, 3:47AM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For New York Mets vs Chicago Cubs: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 22 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability22 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Francisco Alvarez NYM Batter - Hits 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Nico Hoerner CHC Batter - Hits 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineChicago CubsNo line posted
4-1L5 record
L5 RF6.0L5 RA2.0Home L54-1vs New York Mets L53-2Win rec5-8

Chicago Cubs moneyline form: last five 4-1, 6.0 runs/gm.

Run LineChicago Cubs run lineNo line posted
4-1L5 record
L5 RF6.0L5 RA2.0Home L54-1vs New York Mets L53-2ATS8-7

Chicago Cubs spread form: last five 4-1, 6.0 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Chicago Cubs vs New York MetsNo line posted

Chicago Cubs total runs form: last five 4-1, 6.0 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsChicago Cubs team totalNo line posted
4.2implied team total
L5 RF6.0L5 RA2.0Home L54-1vs New York Mets L53-2

Chicago Cubs team total runs form: last five 4-1, 6.0 runs/gm.

New York Mets vs Chicago Cubs — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Chicago Cubs are scoring 7.8 runs per game (3-2) while New York Mets are at 0.6 (0-5); Chicago Cubs pitchers are allowing 4.0 earned runs per game versus 3.0 for New York Mets.

7.8
Chicago Cubs runs/G
0.6
New York Mets runs/G
Last 5 gamesChicago CubsNew York Mets
Runs / game7.80.6
Hits / game7.82.0
Home runs / game1.40.0
Walks drawn / game2.40.4
Batter K / game4.02.2
Earned runs allowed / game4.03.0
Pitching K / game5.02.6
Walks allowed / game1.42.0
L5 record3-20-5

New York Mets @ Chicago Cubs — model preview

<p>Latest MLB betting preview: Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets. Get predictions and top picks. Includes analysis on key players like NA. Keywords: MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets stats and odds.</p>

Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets : Chicago Cubs +2.5 (-303)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

As the Cubs host the Mets, there’s a palpable buzz around Wrigley Field, especially considering Chicago's recent surge. The Cubs have been raking, showcasing a potent lineup that’s turned heads with their ability to pile on runs. Over the last few weeks, they’ve averaged over five runs per game, which should pose a serious challenge for a Mets pitching staff that’s been shaky on the road. Meanwhile, the Cubs' ace has been in fine form, boasting a strikeout rate that’s among the best in the league. Facing a Mets lineup that struggles against power pitchers, you can expect the Cubs to capitalize early and often. Given their impressive home record and the Mets’ inconsistency, betting on the Cubs to cover the alternate run line of -2.5 feels like a savvy play. With all the signs pointing towards a resounding Cubs victory, it’s hard to ignore the value here.

Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets : Chicago Cubs +2 (-270)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

As the Cubs welcome the Mets to Wrigley on Saturday, there's a palpable buzz around this matchup. Chicago’s bats have been sizzling lately, averaging nearly five runs over their last ten games. With the wind usually blowing out at Wrigley, their lineup's power potential could really shine, especially against a Mets' pitching staff that has struggled to find consistency. On the mound, the Cubs' ace has been a force, boasting a solid ERA and a penchant for racking up strikeouts. Facing a Mets lineup that’s been prone to swings and misses, it’s easy to envision the Cubs establishing a commanding offense early. Given their current form and home-field advantage, laying the two runs feels like a smart play. The Cubs have shown they can win decisively at home, and with their recent trends favoring high-scoring games, this matchup leans heavily in their direction.

Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets : Chicago Cubs +3.5 (-476)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

As the Cubs take the field against the Mets on April 18, 2026, there's compelling reason to back Chicago on the alternate run line of 3.5. The Cubs have been on a roll at home, boasting a robust offense that has capitalized on their friendly confines, averaging over five runs per game. Their lineup is firing on all cylinders, with key hitters enjoying hot streaks, making it difficult for opposing pitchers to find a rhythm. On the mound, the Cubs’ starter has been solid, consistently limiting walks and keeping earned runs low, which aligns perfectly against a Mets lineup struggling to find consistency. Additionally, the Mets have been shaky on the road, often faltering in crucial moments. With the Cubs sporting an impressive home record and the Mets’ recent struggles, betting on Chicago to cover that 3.5 run line seems not just smart, but almost inevitable.

Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets : Chicago Cubs +3 (-417)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

As the Chicago Cubs square off against the New York Mets, the wind seems to be blowing favorably for the home side. The Cubs have been on a tear lately, showcasing a potent lineup that has averaged over 5 runs per game during their last ten outings. Meanwhile, the Mets’ pitching staff has struggled, particularly against left-handed hitters, which could spell trouble today. The Cubs' ace on the mound has consistently delivered, boasting a sub-3.00 ERA that has kept opponents guessing. With the Cubs’ recent record reflecting a strong home-field advantage, it’s hard to overlook their ability to dominate weaker pitching. Coupled with the fact that they’ve covered the run line by at least three runs in several recent games, betting on the Cubs to cover the alternate run line feels like a savvy play. Expect the Cubs to flex their offensive muscle and make a statement at Wrigley today.

Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets : Over 9.5 Total Runs (+158)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

As the Chicago Cubs prepare to face the New York Mets, the stage is set for a potential slugfest at Wrigley Field. Both teams have shown a penchant for putting runs on the board recently, with the Cubs averaging over five runs per game this month. Their lineup is firing, especially with players like Ian Happ and Nico Hoerner raking at the plate. On the flip side, the Mets, despite their ups and downs, can’t be ignored with their deep batting order featuring Pete Alonso and Francisco Lindor. The Cubs’ pitching staff has struggled with consistency, and with the wind blowing towards the outfield, expect some long balls to fly. Given the recent trends and the offensive firepower on both sides, betting on the over 9.5 runs feels like a prudent move—especially with both offenses likely to capitalize on any pitching mistakes.

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
4
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult
18 Apr 26 Moneyline Chicago Cubs ✓ HIT
18 Apr 26 Spread Chicago Cubs -2.5 ✗ MISS
18 Apr 26 Spread Chicago Cubs -1.5 ✗ MISS
18 Apr 26 Spread Chicago Cubs -2 ✗ MISS

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for New York Mets vs Chicago Cubs in the MLB. The most recent or upcoming game is scheduled for Saturday 18 April 2026 at Wrigley Field. The model has generated 20 game picks and 2 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

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