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Model picks & player props
New York Mets
VS
Chicago Cubs

New York Mets vs Chicago Cubs Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 31, 7:22AM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

MLB
Wrigley Field, Chicago
Outdoor
Sat 18 Apr 2026, 6:20PM
20
Game markets graded
2
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Chicago Cubs -1.5 Spread +196

The model graded 22 markets for New York Mets vs Chicago Cubs (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — a lean, not a lock. A $100 bet returns about $296 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Sat 18 Apr 2026, 6:20PM at Wrigley Field.

Our confidenceLean
Chance to win53.5%
The price says33.8%
Best price+196
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Spread Chicago Cubs -1.5 Lean54% chance +196
Spread Lean44% chance
Spread Lean49% chance
Spread Long-shot35% chance
Spread Long-shot40% chance
Moneyline High68% chance
Spread Long-shot31% chance
Spread High75% chance
Spread Lean58% chance
Batter - Hits × 2 props Highup to 91%
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%

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Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record
This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 935 of 1,976 right (mlb total-runs unders)
This bet type · last timeAug 29
Under 11.5
Chicago White Sox @ Minnesota Twins
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $130
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Spread
Chicago Cubs
-4
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
Chicago CubsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Chicago CubsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Chicago CubsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Chicago CubsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Chicago CubsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Chicago CubsMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Chicago CubsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Chicago CubsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Chicago CubsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Chicago CubsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Chicago CubsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Chicago CubsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Chicago CubsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Chicago CubsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Chicago CubsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Chicago CubsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Chicago CubsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Chicago CubsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

New York Mets

  • Devin Williams RPOut
  • Jorge Polanco DHOut
  • Mark Vientos 1BOut
  • Justin Hagenman RPOut
  • Cionel Perez RPOut
  • Reed Garrett RPOut
  • Tylor Megill SPOut

Probable pitcher

Zac Thornton SP

Chicago Cubs

  • Edward Cabrera SPOut
  • Ben Brown RPOut
  • Justin Steele SPOut
  • Phil Maton RPOut
  • Gavin Hollowell RPOut
  • Riley Martin RPOut
  • Hunter Harvey RPOut
  • Dansby Swanson SSOut
  • Shelby Miller RPOut
  • Porter Hodge RPOut
  • Cade Horton SPOut
  • Tyler Austin 1BOut

Probable pitcher

Shota Imanaga SP
Availability updated Aug 30, 11:20PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For New York Mets vs Chicago Cubs: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 19 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability19 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Francisco Alvarez NYM Batter - Hits
Nico Hoerner CHC Batter - Hits

+ 2 player props graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineChicago CubsNo line posted
4-1L5 record
L5 RF4.8L5 RA1.4Home L53-2vs New York Mets L53-2Free board12-10

Chicago Cubs moneyline form: last five 4-1, 4.8 runs/gm.

Run LineChicago Cubs run lineNo line posted
4-1L5 record
L5 RF4.8L5 RA1.4Home L53-2vs New York Mets L53-2Free board14-13

Chicago Cubs spread form: last five 4-1, 4.8 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Chicago Cubs vs New York MetsNo line posted

Chicago Cubs total runs form: last five 4-1, 4.8 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsChicago Cubs team totalNo line posted
2.9runs we expect
L5 RF4.8L5 RA1.4Home L53-2vs New York Mets L53-2

Chicago Cubs team total runs form: last five 4-1, 4.8 runs/gm.

New York Mets @ Chicago Cubs — what the model found

Our model graded 22 betting markets for New York Mets at Chicago Cubs — 20 on the game itself and 2 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
2
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 22 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 21 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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New York Mets vs Chicago Cubs — recent results

Chicago Cubs have won 1 of their last 5 games; New York Mets have won 1 of their last 5.

Chicago Cubs — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L5–7CINHome
W17–5CINHome
L8–10CINHome
L4–5ARIAway
L0–2ARIAway
New York Mets — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L3–6HOUHome
W6–2HOUHome
L1–3HOUHome
L2–8MILHome
L1–8MILHome

New York Mets vs Chicago Cubs — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Chicago Cubs are scoring 7.8 runs per game (3-2) while New York Mets are at 0.6 (0-5); Chicago Cubs pitchers are allowing 4.0 earned runs per game versus 3.0 for New York Mets.

7.8
Chicago Cubs runs/G
0.6
New York Mets runs/G
Last 5 gamesChicago CubsNew York Mets
Runs / game7.80.6
Hits / game7.82.0
Home runs / game1.40.0
Walks drawn / game2.40.4
Batter K / game4.02.2
Earned runs allowed / game4.03.0
Pitching K / game5.02.6
Walks allowed / game1.42.0
L5 record3-20-5

New York Mets vs Chicago Cubs — recent meetings

These two have met 7 times recently: Chicago Cubs won 7, New York Mets won 0.

DateChicago CubsNew York MetsWinner
Jun 2543Chicago Cubs
Jun 24105Chicago Cubs
Jun 24103Chicago Cubs
Jun 2396Chicago Cubs
Apr 1921Chicago Cubs
Apr 1842Chicago Cubs
Apr 17124Chicago Cubs

Who’s out or in doubt

19 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Chicago Cubs
PlayerStatus
Edward Cabrera SPOUT
Ben Brown RPOUT
Justin Steele SPOUT
Phil Maton RPOUT
Gavin Hollowell RPOUT
Riley Martin RPOUT
Hunter Harvey RPOUT
Dansby Swanson SSOUT
New York Mets
PlayerStatus
Devin Williams RPOUT
Jorge Polanco DHOUT
Mark Vientos 1BOUT
Justin Hagenman RPOUT
Cionel Perez RPOUT
Reed Garrett RPOUT
Tylor Megill SPOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

New York Mets @ Chicago Cubs — model preview

Latest MLB betting preview: Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets. Get predictions and top picks. Includes analysis on key players like NA. Keywords: MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets stats and odds.

Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets : Chicago Cubs +2.5 (-303)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

As the Cubs host the Mets, there’s a palpable buzz around Wrigley Field, especially considering Chicago's recent surge. The Cubs have been raking, showcasing a potent lineup that’s turned heads with their ability to pile on runs. Over the last few weeks, they’ve averaged over five runs per game, which should pose a serious challenge for a Mets pitching staff that’s been shaky on the road. Meanwhile, the Cubs' ace has been in fine form, boasting a strikeout rate that’s among the best in the league. Facing a Mets lineup that struggles against power pitchers, you can expect the Cubs to capitalize early and often. Given their impressive home record and the Mets’ inconsistency, betting on the Cubs to cover the alternate run line of -2.5 feels like a savvy play. With all the signs pointing towards a resounding Cubs victory, it’s hard to ignore the value here.

🔒 The other 4 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for New York Mets vs Chicago Cubs in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Mets vs Cubs, or as Cubs vs Mets. The most recent game between them was Saturday 18 April 2026 at Wrigley Field. The model has generated 20 game picks and 2 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Final scores · 25 meetings on record
Chicago Cubs 14–11 across the last 25 meetings · these games average 9.4 runs (meetings on record since 2023)
DateGameScoreWinner
25 Jun 2026Chicago Cubs @ New York Mets3–4Chicago Cubs
24 Jun 2026Chicago Cubs @ New York Mets5–10Chicago Cubs
23 Jun 2026Chicago Cubs @ New York Mets6–9Chicago Cubs
19 Apr 2026New York Mets @ Chicago Cubs2–1Chicago Cubs
18 Apr 2026New York Mets @ Chicago Cubs4–2Chicago Cubs
17 Apr 2026New York Mets @ Chicago Cubs12–4Chicago Cubs
25 Sep 2025New York Mets @ Chicago Cubs5–8New York Mets
24 Sep 2025New York Mets @ Chicago Cubs10–3Chicago Cubs
23 Sep 2025New York Mets @ Chicago Cubs7–9New York Mets
11 May 2025Chicago Cubs @ New York Mets6–2New York Mets

Table shows the last 10 — the record above counts all 25 meetings on file.

Today's selected board

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