Bet Better BET BETTER PRO
Today's bets are live / Top performing picks daily / Tracked in public — wins & losses
Model picks & player props
New York Mets
VS
Chicago Cubs

New York Mets vs Chicago Cubs Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 10, 10:13PM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

MLB
Wrigley Field, Chicago
Outdoor
Sat 18 Apr 2026, 6:20PM
20
Game markets graded
2
Props graded
Answer
The model’s one call for this game: Chicago Cubs -3 (Spread)
The model graded 22 markets for New York Mets vs Chicago Cubs (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — a lean, not a lock. A $100 bet returns about $423 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. For the numbers: model win probability 39.5%, fair odds 2.53, book price +323, model edge +15.9%. Tip-off Sat 18 Apr 2026, 6:20PM at Wrigley Field.
This game is done — from the model’s graded calls on this game
Chicago Cubs -3.5 · $100 returned $385

Get tomorrow's free pick by email

Free. One email a day, tops. Unsubscribe in one tap.

18+ only. Please gamble responsibly.

Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record
This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 546 of 996 right (mlb total-runs unders)
This bet type · last timeAug 10
Under 9.5
Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $170

Game picks

+EV edge in green
Spread
Chicago Cubs
-4
+ 19 more markets
Unlock with Pro
🔒

Unlock every graded pick for this game

See the full board for this matchup — every market, every line, every call the model backs — plus every pick across the slate.

Bet Better Unlock all game picks
$4.14 a day on the weekly plan ($29/wk) — less than one $50 bet a week · cancel anytime · full verified record at /results

Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
Chicago CubsSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Chicago CubsMoneylinePositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Chicago CubsSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Chicago CubsSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

Pro shows you, in plain English, how far each price is off — and how much to put on it. No maths needed on your side.

Bet Better Unlock calibrated edges
Cancel anytime · full verified record at /results

Who's out

Injuries & availability

New York Mets

  • Cionel Perez RPOut
  • Austin Warren RPOut
  • Juan Soto LFOut
  • Justin Hagenman RPOut
  • Mark Vientos 1BOut
  • Reed Garrett RPOut
  • Tylor Megill SPOut

Probable pitcher

Christian Scott SP

Chicago Cubs

  • Shelby Miller RPOut
  • Riley Martin RPOut
  • Phil Maton RPOut
  • Matt Shaw RFOut
  • Hunter Harvey RPOut
  • Daniel Palencia RPOut
  • Edward Cabrera SPOut
  • Ben Brown RPOut
  • Justin Steele SPOut
  • Gavin Hollowell RPOut
  • Hoby Milner RPOut
  • Porter Hodge RPOut
  • Cade Horton SPOut
  • Tyler Austin 1BOut
Availability updated Aug 10, 11:15PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For New York Mets vs Chicago Cubs: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 21 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability21 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

See the weather- and injury-adjusted projected line and the model's with/without delta for this fixture. 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Francisco Alvarez NYM Batter - Hits 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Nico Hoerner CHC Batter - Hits 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

Unlock every player prop for this game

The players are right there — Pro shows which of their lines the model backs, and how much to put on each.

Bet Better Unlock player props
Cancel anytime · full verified record at /results

Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineChicago CubsNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF3.0L5 RA1.2Home L53-2vs New York Mets L52-3Free board12-8

Chicago Cubs moneyline form: last five 3-2, 3.0 runs/gm.

Run LineChicago Cubs run lineNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF3.0L5 RA1.2Home L53-2vs New York Mets L52-3Free board13-9

Chicago Cubs spread form: last five 3-2, 3.0 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Chicago Cubs vs New York MetsNo line posted

Chicago Cubs total runs form: last five 3-2, 3.0 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsChicago Cubs team totalNo line posted
2.2runs we expect
L5 RF3.0L5 RA1.2Home L53-2vs New York Mets L52-3

Chicago Cubs team total runs form: last five 3-2, 3.0 runs/gm.

New York Mets @ Chicago Cubs — what the model found

Our model graded 22 betting markets for New York Mets at Chicago Cubs — 20 on the game itself and 2 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
2
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 22 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 21 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
Unlock every pick
$4.14 a day on the weekly plan ($29/wk) — less than one $50 bet a week · cancel anytime

New York Mets vs Chicago Cubs — recent results

Chicago Cubs have won 4 of their last 5 games; New York Mets have won 4 of their last 5.

Chicago Cubs — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W10–2KCAway
W6–4KCAway
L3–6KCAway
W3–2TORHome
W5–1LADHome
New York Mets — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W11–1PITAway
L0–9PITAway
W6–4PITAway
W13–6CLEAway
W6–5CLEAway

New York Mets vs Chicago Cubs — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Chicago Cubs are scoring 7.8 runs per game (3-2) while New York Mets are at 0.6 (0-5); Chicago Cubs pitchers are allowing 4.0 earned runs per game versus 3.0 for New York Mets.

7.8
Chicago Cubs runs/G
0.6
New York Mets runs/G
Last 5 gamesChicago CubsNew York Mets
Runs / game7.80.6
Hits / game7.82.0
Home runs / game1.40.0
Walks drawn / game2.40.4
Batter K / game4.02.2
Earned runs allowed / game4.03.0
Pitching K / game5.02.6
Walks allowed / game1.42.0
L5 record3-20-5

New York Mets vs Chicago Cubs — recent meetings

These two have met 4 times recently: Chicago Cubs won 4, New York Mets won 0.

DateChicago CubsNew York MetsWinner
Jun 2543Chicago Cubs
Jun 24103Chicago Cubs
Jun 24105Chicago Cubs
Jun 2396Chicago Cubs

Who’s out or in doubt

21 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Chicago Cubs
PlayerStatus
Shelby Miller RPOUT
Riley Martin RPOUT
Phil Maton RPOUT
Matt Shaw RFOUT
Hunter Harvey RPOUT
Daniel Palencia RPOUT
Edward Cabrera SPOUT
Ben Brown RPOUT
New York Mets
PlayerStatus
Cionel Perez RPOUT
Austin Warren RPOUT
Juan Soto LFOUT
Justin Hagenman RPOUT
Mark Vientos 1BOUT
Reed Garrett RPOUT
Tylor Megill SPOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

New York Mets @ Chicago Cubs — model preview

Latest MLB betting preview: Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets. Get predictions and top picks. Includes analysis on key players like NA. Keywords: MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets stats and odds.

Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets : Chicago Cubs +2.5 (-303)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

As the Cubs host the Mets, there’s a palpable buzz around Wrigley Field, especially considering Chicago's recent surge. The Cubs have been raking, showcasing a potent lineup that’s turned heads with their ability to pile on runs. Over the last few weeks, they’ve averaged over five runs per game, which should pose a serious challenge for a Mets pitching staff that’s been shaky on the road. Meanwhile, the Cubs' ace has been in fine form, boasting a strikeout rate that’s among the best in the league. Facing a Mets lineup that struggles against power pitchers, you can expect the Cubs to capitalize early and often. Given their impressive home record and the Mets’ inconsistency, betting on the Cubs to cover the alternate run line of -2.5 feels like a savvy play. With all the signs pointing towards a resounding Cubs victory, it’s hard to ignore the value here.

🔒 The other 4 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
Unlock the full write-up
$4.14 a day on the weekly plan ($29/wk) — less than one $50 bet a week · cancel anytime

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
6
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult
18 Apr 26 Spread Chicago Cubs -4 ✓ HIT
18 Apr 26 Moneyline Chicago Cubs ✓ HIT
18 Apr 26 Total Runs Over 9.5 ✗ MISS
18 Apr 26 Total Runs Under 5 ✗ MISS
18 Apr 26 Spread Chicago Cubs +1.5 ✓ HIT
18 Apr 26 Spread Chicago Cubs -3 ✓ HIT

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for New York Mets vs Chicago Cubs in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Mets vs Cubs, or as Cubs vs Mets. The most recent game between them was Saturday 18 April 2026 at Wrigley Field. The model has generated 20 game picks and 2 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Today's selected board

See the plays that cleared the model's filter today

See today's picks

Get tomorrow's free pick by email

Free. One email a day, tops. Unsubscribe in one tap.

18+ only. Please gamble responsibly.

Bet Better is not a bookmaker and does not accept wagers. Information is for educational purposes only. Gamble responsibly — only bet what you can afford to lose. 18+. National Gambling Helpline 1800 858 858. If betting stops being fun, take a break — see our responsible gambling resources.

Get tomorrow's free pick by email

Free. One email a day, tops. Unsubscribe in one tap.

18+ only. Please gamble responsibly.