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Model picks & player props
New York Mets
VS
Atlanta Braves

New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves Picks & Predictions

Our model graded 70 markets for New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves and backs New York Mets hardest, a lean, and $100 on it returns about $238.

MLB
Truist Park, Atlanta
Outdoor
Wed 12 Aug 2026, 11:15PM
20
Game markets graded
50
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
New York Mets Moneyline - 1st 5 Innings +138

The model graded 70 markets for New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — a lean, not a lock. A $100 bet returns about $238 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Wed 12 Aug 2026, 11:15PM at Truist Park.

Our confidenceLean
Chance to win51.1%
The price says38.9%
Best price+138
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Moneyline - 1st 5 Innings New York Mets Lean51% chance +138
Spread Members only Long-shot38% chance Members
Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Members only Long-shot36% chance Members
Spread - 1st 5 Innings Members only Long-shot38% chance Members
Total Runs Members only Lean42% chance Members
Batter - Singles × 9 props Highup to 87% Members
Pitcher - Earned Runs × 2 props Highup to 92% Members
Batter - Runs Scored × 4 props Highup to 80% Members
Batter - Total Bases × 6 props Highup to 89% Members
Batter - Hits × 5 props Highup to 92% Members
Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs × 9 props Highup to 83% Members
Pitcher - Strikeouts × 1 prop Highup to 92% Members
Pitcher - Hits Allowed × 1 prop Highup to 74% Members
Batter - Walks × 8 props Highup to 95% Members
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%

New York Mets and Atlanta Braves last met on Wed 12 Aug 2026: Atlanta Braves won 6-3. Their next game gets a fresh preview here the moment it is priced. Today's board: every MLB game priced right now.

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Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Moneyline - 1st 5 Innings
New York Mets
+ 19 more markets
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All 20 game markets and 50 player props for this matchup — every line, every call the model backs — plus every pick across the slate. Join 62,586+ members.

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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
New York MetsMoneyline - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York MetsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal Runs - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York MetsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York MetsSpread - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York MetsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York MetsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York MetsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York MetsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York MetsSpread - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York MetsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

New York Mets

  • Jared Young 1BOut
  • Reed Garrett RPOut
  • Tylor Megill SPOut
  • Jonathan Pintaro RPOut
  • Christian Scott SPOut
  • Daniel Duarte RPOut
  • Robert Stock SPOut
  • Jorge Polanco DHOut

Atlanta Braves

  • Martin Perez SPOut
  • Bryce Elder SPOut
  • Tyler Mahle SPDay-to-day
  • Hurston Waldrep SPOut
  • Reynaldo Lopez RPOut
  • Joe Jimenez RPOut
  • Spencer Strider SPOut
  • Spencer Schwellenbach SPOut
  • Joey Wentz RPOut
Availability updated Oct 2, 5:14PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 17 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability17 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

See the weather- and injury-adjusted projected line and the model's with/without delta for this fixture. 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Michael Harris II ATL Batter - Singles
Zach Thornton NYM Pitcher - Earned Runs
Luis Robert Jr. CHW Batter - Runs Scored
Matt Olson ATL Batter - Total Bases
Francisco Alvarez NYM Batter - Hits

+ 50 player props graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineAtlanta BravesNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF4.0L5 RA3.8Home L53-2vs New York Mets L54-1

Atlanta Braves moneyline form: last five 2-3, 4.0 runs/gm.

Run LineAtlanta Braves run lineNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF4.0L5 RA3.8Home L53-2vs New York Mets L54-1

Atlanta Braves spread form: last five 2-3, 4.0 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Atlanta Braves vs New York MetsNo line posted

Atlanta Braves total runs form: last five 2-3, 4.0 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsAtlanta Braves team totalNo line posted
3.6runs we expect
L5 RF4.0L5 RA3.8Home L53-2vs New York Mets L54-1

Atlanta Braves team total runs form: last five 2-3, 4.0 runs/gm.

New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves — what the model found

Our model graded 70 betting markets for New York Mets at Atlanta Braves — 20 on the game itself and 50 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
50
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 70 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 69 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves — recent results

Atlanta Braves have won 3 of their last 5 games; New York Mets have won 2 of their last 5.

Atlanta Braves — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W3–2LADAway
L3–5LADAway
W6–2PHIHome
L3–4PHIHome
W5–3PHIHome
New York Mets — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L4–6WSHAway
W7–1WSHAway
L6–7WSHAway
W7–2TEXAway
L1–3TEXAway

New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Atlanta Braves are scoring 0.2 runs per game (0-5) while New York Mets are at 5.2 (4-1); Atlanta Braves pitchers are allowing 1.4 earned runs per game versus 1.4 for New York Mets.

0.2
Atlanta Braves runs/G
5.2
New York Mets runs/G
Last 5 gamesAtlanta BravesNew York Mets
Runs / game0.25.2
Hits / game2.04.6
Home runs / game0.20.8
Walks drawn / game0.20.8
Batter K / game3.61.8
Earned runs allowed / game1.41.4
Pitching K / game1.61.6
Walks allowed / game0.61.2
L5 record0-54-1

New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves — recent meetings

These two have met 10 times recently: Atlanta Braves won 5, New York Mets won 5.

DateAtlanta BravesNew York MetsWinner
Aug 1263Atlanta Braves
Aug 1140Atlanta Braves
Aug 1058New York Mets
Jul 2923New York Mets
Jul 2910Atlanta Braves
Jul 27314New York Mets
Jul 667New York Mets
Jul 5143Atlanta Braves
Jul 5910New York Mets
Jul 353Atlanta Braves

Who’s out or in doubt

17 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Atlanta Braves
PlayerStatus
Martin Perez SPOUT
Bryce Elder SPOUT
Tyler Mahle SPDAY-TO-DAY
Hurston Waldrep SPOUT
Reynaldo Lopez RPOUT
Joe Jimenez RPOUT
Spencer Strider SPOUT
Spencer Schwellenbach SPOUT
New York Mets
PlayerStatus
Jared Young 1BOUT
Reed Garrett RPOUT
Tylor Megill SPOUT
Jonathan Pintaro RPOUT
Christian Scott SPOUT
Daniel Duarte RPOUT
Robert Stock SPOUT
Jorge Polanco DHOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves — model preview

Our New York Mets at Atlanta Braves prediction for August 13, 2026, plus every bet we like in the game and how confident we are in each.

On August 13, 2026 our model has run New York Mets at Atlanta Braves and priced every market it can. Our strongest call is Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets: Over 6.5 Total Runs (-286), which we rate HIGH confidence. We walk through all 6 bets we like in this game below. Everything below is our own number against the price the book is offering, written in plain English with how confident we are in words.

Every bet we like in this game

🔒 The other 6 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Mets vs Braves, or as Braves vs Mets. The most recent game between them was Wednesday 12 August 2026 at Truist Park. The model has generated 20 game picks and 50 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves head-to-head record

Final scores · 50 meetings on record
Atlanta Braves 29–20 across the last 50 meetings · 1 draw · these games average 10.2 runs (meetings on record since 2023)

Last meeting: Wed 12 Aug 2026, New York Mets at Atlanta Braves: the Braves won 6-3.

DateGameScoreWinner
12 Aug 2026New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves6–3Atlanta Braves
11 Aug 2026New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves4–0Atlanta Braves
10 Aug 2026New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves5–8New York Mets
29 Jul 2026Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets3–2New York Mets
27 Jul 2026Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets14–3New York Mets
6 Jul 2026New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves6–7New York Mets
5 Jul 2026New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves9–10New York Mets
4 Jul 2026New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves14–3Atlanta Braves
3 Jul 2026New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves5–3Atlanta Braves
14 Jun 2026Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets8–1New York Mets

Table shows the last 10 — the record above counts all 50 meetings on file.

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