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The latest Bet Better model pick for Michael Harris II is Under 1.5 on Batter - Stolen Bases.
On the Batter - Stolen Bases market the model assigns a model win probability of 100%, versus the book's implied 93%, for a model edge of +7.4%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Jul 17, 8:04AM UTC
MLB

Michael Harris II

ATL

+7.4% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Batter - Stolen Bases Under 1.5 -1250 (1.08)
+7.4% Edge
Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves
Truist Park, Atlanta, Georgia · Outdoor
Tue 4 Aug, 11:15PM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
100.0%
Implied Probability
92.6%
Model Edge
+7.4%
Predicted Value
—

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Batter - Stolen Bases100.0%—92.6%—+7.4%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games0/0
Last 5 games0/0
Last 10 games0/0

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AI Analysis

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Michael Harris II (ATL) Under 1.5 Stolen Bases (-1250)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Atlanta Braves host the Miami Marlins, all eyes will be on Michael Harris II, but betting on him to swipe more than one base feels like a stretch. While Harris has undeniable speed, the Marlins' pitchers have been adept at holding runners this season, allowing just 0.7 steals per game—a figure that suggests their battery is well-prepared to control the running game. Moreover, Harris has only managed to steal bases in about 20% of his attempts against Miami. With the Braves likely focusing on scoring through power rather than small ball, it’s reasonable to expect them to minimize risky plays on the basepaths. Given the current trends and the matchup dynamics, betting on Michael Harris to stay under 1.5 stolen bases seems prudent. The odds favor this outcome strongly, making it a compelling angle in today's matchup.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

2 markets live
Batter - HitsUpcoming gameU 1.5 -250+21.5% edge
90%hit L10
L2095%
Game log vs U 1.52 / 4 hit
3020

Michael Harris II MLB hits: cleared under 1.5 in 90% of the last 10 games. Current line U 1.5 at -250 (+21.5% model edge).

Batter - Stolen BasesUpcoming vs MIAU 1.5 -1250+7.4% edge

Michael Harris II MLB stolen bases vs MIA. Current line U 1.5 at -1250 (+7.4% model edge).

Batter - Total BasesSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 1.520%
O 2.520%
O 3.520%
O 4.510%

Michael Harris II MLB total basesseason and recent-form profile.

Batter - Home RunsSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 0.520%

Michael Harris II MLB home runsseason and recent-form profile.

Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIsSeason & recent formNo line posted
50%hit L10
Streak3
O 0.550%
O 1.530%

Michael Harris II MLB hits + runs + rbis: cleared over 0.5 in 50% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - RBIsSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 0.520%
O 1.510%

Michael Harris II MLB rbisseason and recent-form profile.

Batter - Runs ScoredSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 0.530%
O 1.510%

Michael Harris II MLB runs scoredseason and recent-form profile.

Batter - WalksSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 0.520%

Michael Harris II MLB walksseason and recent-form profile.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
11 Jul 26 Atlanta Braves @ St. Louis Cardinals Batter - Hits 1.5 Under -213 ✓ HIT
06 Jul 26 New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves Batter - Total Bases 1.5 Under -169 ✓ HIT
05 Jul 26 New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves Batter - Hits 1.5 Under -270 ✗ MISS
05 Jul 26 New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves Batter - Total Bases — — — Pending
28 Jun 26 Atlanta Braves @ San Francisco Giants Batter - Hits — — — Pending
28 Jun 26 Atlanta Braves @ San Francisco Giants Batter - Singles — — — Pending

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About This Player

Michael Harris II (ATL) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Michael Harris II is Under 1.5 on Batter - Stolen Bases. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +7.4% on this pick. Their next game is Miami Marlins vs Atlanta Braves on Tuesday 4 August at Truist Park, Atlanta. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

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