On Saturday 15 August 2026, Hawthorn Hawks play Collingwood Magpies in the AFL. Our model likes 3 bets here. The one it likes most is Hawthorn Hawks vs Collingwood Magpies: Under 23.5 team_totals_q1, priced at -112 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Hawthorn Hawks vs Collingwood Magpies: Under 23.5 team_totals_q1 (-112)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
When the Hawks host the Magpies at the hallowed MCG, all signs point to a first-quarter defensive battle. Hawthorn's recent form at home showcases a disciplined backline, conceding just 95 points per game in their last five clashes on familiar turf. Meanwhile, their offensive prowess has seen them average 14 goals per game, but facing Collingwood's staunch defense, they might find it harder to break through. Collingwood, on the other hand, has been stingy on the road, giving up only 88.4 points in their last five away fixtures. With both teams tightening up defensively and Hawthorn potentially facing resistance in their attacking endeavors, backing the Under 23.5 on the Hawks' team total for the first quarter seems like a prudent play in this early showdown.
Hawthorn Hawks vs Collingwood Magpies: Hawthorn Hawks -19.5 (-111)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Alright footy punters, let's break down why backing the Hawthorn Hawks at -19.5 against the Collingwood Magpies is a smart play this weekend at the iconic MCG. The Hawks have been flying high at home lately, boasting an impressive average margin of 15.4 in their last five games at their turf. Their offensive firepower has been on full display, racking up an average of 95 points per game while keeping opponents to just 79.6 points. With an average of 62.8 inside 50s and 30.2 shots at goal per game, the Hawks are relentless in attack. On the flip side, the Magpies have struggled on the road, with a modest average margin of 7.8 in their last five away games. Their defense has leaked an average of 88.4 points per game, while their offensive output of 96.2 points hasn't been enough to consistently secure victories. Expect the Hawks to capitalize on their home advantage, dominating the midfield battle and converting their chances to cover the spread comfortably.
Hawthorn Hawks vs Collingwood Magpies: Collingwood Magpies 4.5 spreads_q3 (-110)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Alright footy fans, let's break down why backing the Collingwood Magpies at +4.5 in the Q3 spread against the Hawthorn Hawks is a smart play. Recently, the Hawks have been dominant at home, averaging a solid 15.4 margin in their last 5 games. However, Collingwood has been gritty on the road, with an average margin of 7.8 in their away matches. When it comes to scoring, both teams are no strangers to putting points on the board. The Hawks boast an impressive 95 points per game in their last 5 outings, while the Magpies are not far behind with an average of 96.2 points. Considering Collingwood's ability to keep games close on the road and their strong scoring form, taking the Magpies with the points looks like a wise move in what promises to be a tightly contested clash at the MCG.
That is how our model reads Hawthorn Hawks v Collingwood Magpies. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.
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