Jerry Jeudy (CLE) Under 14.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Betting on Jerry Jeudy to go Under 14.5 reception yards against the Pittsburgh Steelers is supported by significant statistical trends. Over his last five games, Jeudy has only surpassed this yardage mark twice, with a home hit rate of just 20%. Specifically, against the Steelers, he has not recorded a single reception yard in four attempts, with his home performance against Pittsburgh yielding zero hits as well. His overall hit rate stands at a mere 9.6% (5/52), emphasizing his struggles against this defense. Further, Jeudy's current form shows a lack of consistency, highlighted by a one-game hit streak and no recent success at home. The model edge of 0.19 reinforces the likelihood of this bet hitting. Given these factors, the Under on Jeudy's reception yards is a statistically sound wager.

Jerry Jeudy (CLE) Over 3.5 Player receptions alternate (+970)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Betting on Jerry Jeudy to go Over 3.5 receptions against the Pittsburgh Steelers is statistically sound due to his impressive historical performance against this specific opponent. In his last five matchups versus the Steelers, he has recorded receptions in all four games, including two at home. This trend extends to his last ten games, maintaining a perfect hit rate against Pittsburgh. Despite a recent overall hit rate of only 1/5, Jeudy's home performance has shown signs of improvement, specifically hitting 1/3 at home with a current home hit streak of 1. Additionally, the model edge of 0.18 suggests a favorable probability for hitting this mark. Considering these factors, including his strong historical performance against the Steelers, betting on Jeudy to surpass 3.5 receptions presents a solid opportunity given the statistical backing.

KC Concepcion (CLE) Under 3.5 Receptions (+123)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Betting on KC Concepcion to record Under 3.5 receptions against the Pittsburgh Steelers presents a statistically sound rationale. His recent performances indicate a consistent struggle to reach this threshold, with an overall hit rate of just 1 in his last 5 games. Although he has hit the mark in his last home game, that performance is an anomaly within a broader trend of underwhelming outputs, as he averages only 1 reception in his last 5, 10, and even 20 games. The Browns' offense has been inconsistent, limiting Concepcion's opportunities. Moreover, the Steelers' defense is noted for their strong coverage against opposing receivers, which could further inhibit his chances of exceeding 3.5 receptions. The model edge of 0.175 suggests a favorable lean towards the Under, reinforcing the bet's viability. With the current streaks showing a single successful hit at home, this bet aligns with his overall performance trends.

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