Study · NFL 2026 · Weeks 1 to 7
NFL home field
has gone quiet.
The betting market priced home teams to win about 55 games in 100 this season. They have won 47.
97 regular-season games, 10 September to 27 October 2026 · Published 29 October 2026 · Free to quote under
CC BY 4.0
Week
by week.
September looked normal. Home teams won 22 of 40 games, right on their price. Since October 1 they have won 24 of 57, while the
prices still made them small favourites on average.
| Week | Games | Home priced | Home won | Home wins |
|---|
| Week 1 | 8 | 55.0% | 50.0% | 4 |
| Week 2 | 16 | 61.3% | 43.8% | 7 |
| Week 3 | 16 | 51.0% | 68.8% | 11 |
| Week 4 | 16 | 54.3% | 50.0% | 8 |
| Week 5 | 13 | 51.4% | 38.5% | 5 |
| Week 6 | 14 | 56.3% | 42.9% | 6 |
| Week 7 | 14 | 52.4% | 35.7% | 5 |
| All | 97 | 54.6% | 47.4% | 46 |
Week 1 shows 8 games because only those had closing prices from three or more books in our records.
Home favourites
keep slipping.
The gap comes from teams that were favoured at home. They were priced to win 67 games in 100 and won 59. Teams favoured on
the road did the opposite and won more often than priced.
| Who was favoured | Games | Favourite priced | Favourite won |
|---|
| The home team | 54 | 67.1% | 59.3% |
| The away team | 43 | 61.1% | 67.4% |
Nine big
upsets.
Nine teams priced at 70% or more have lost. Eight of them were at home.
| Week | Favourite | Priced to win | Lost to | Final |
|---|
| 6 | Los Angeles Rams (home) | 85% | Arizona Cardinals | 16-18 |
| 5 | Dallas Cowboys (home) | 80% | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 16-24 |
| 7 | Houston Texans (home) | 80% | New York Giants | 21-27 |
| 2 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers (home) | 77% | Cleveland Browns | 19-23 |
| 2 | Baltimore Ravens (home) | 77% | New Orleans Saints | 17-24 |
| 3 | Seattle Seahawks (away) | 77% | Washington Commanders | 31-33 |
| 4 | Buffalo Bills (home) | 74% | New England Patriots | 26-29 |
| 2 | Los Angeles Chargers (home) | 73% | Las Vegas Raiders | 14-26 |
| 6 | Indianapolis Colts (home) | 71% | Tennessee Titans | 20-26 |
Final shows the favourite's score first.
Favourites
by price.
| Favourite's price | Games | Priced to win | Won |
|---|
| 50-60% | 40 | 56.0% | 57.5% |
| 60-70% | 29 | 64.3% | 65.5% |
| 70-80% | 21 | 74.5% | 71.4% |
| 80% and up | 7 | 83.1% | 57.1% |
| All favourites | 97 | 64.4% | 62.9% |
Most bands sit close to their price. The misses are the home side and the very top band, where 3 of 7 heavy favourites lost.
Is it
real?
Too early to say. Over 97 games, home teams are 7.2 points under their price. If we resample the games 4,000 times, the gap
lands anywhere from 16.5 points under to 2.8 points over, 95 times in 100. That range still includes zero, so a run of bad luck
cannot be ruled out. A full season usually ends much closer to the price. We will update this page as the weeks come in.
This week's
NFL games.
Every game with the chance in plain words and the best price we found. Free.
See NFL picks
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Player bets for this week are on the NFL player props page.
How we
measured.
The method
We took the closing moneyline for every regular-season NFL game from 10 September to 27 October 2026 that had prices from
at least three sportsbooks (about six on average). Each book's two prices were turned into chances, then scaled so the two
teams add up to 100%, which removes the book's cut (4.2% on average). We averaged the books for each game and matched it to
the final score. Overtime counts. One tie was left out.
On the Brier score (the average squared error of a chance; a coin flip scores 0.250), the closing prices scored 0.2325 this
season against the 0.2209 they expected of themselves. In plain words, 2026 has been more surprising than the prices said.
Cite this study
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