Here are our AFL picks for Sunday 23 August 2026. Our model likes 3 bets here. The one it likes most is Dyson Sharp (Essendon) Under 22.5 Disposals, priced at -114 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Dyson Sharp (Essendon) Under 22.5 Disposals (-114)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to the Essendon Bombers clash against Port Adelaide Power, all eyes are on Dyson Sharp to make an impact on the field. Sharp has been a consistent force in recent games, but the data suggests a different story this time. Over his last five home games, he's averaged 20.6 disposals, showing solid form but has a model prediction of 19.6, indicating a potential dip in his usual output. With a line set at 22.5, there's a clear opportunity to capitalize on Sharp potentially falling short of his recent performance. His recent home games against Port Adelaide also show a dip in disposals compared to his overall average, making the under 22.5 disposals seem like a smart play for this matchup at Marvel Stadium.

Callum Mills (Sydney Swans) Under 26.5 Disposals (-119)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to Callum Mills hitting the under on 26.5 disposals in the upcoming clash between Sydney Swans and North Melbourne Kangaroos, the stats paint a clear picture. Despite his recent solid form, averaging 24.4 disposals in his last 5 home games, he faces a North Melbourne side where he averages 22.7 disposals against them at home. With an overall average of 21.4 disposals in his last 5 games, and a model predicting 23.2 disposals, the under seems like a smart play. Mills' consistency is commendable, but the matchup dynamics suggest he might fall just short this time. Combine that with his recent hit streaks, and the under looks even more enticing. Trust the numbers to guide you towards a profitable bet on Mills for this game.

Joe Berry (Port Adelaide) Over 0.5 Goals (+100)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Looking at Joe Berry's recent form, there's a compelling case for backing him to snag at least one goal in the upcoming clash against Essendon. Despite averaging 0.6 goals in his last five away games, Berry's goal accuracy sits at a respectable 18.3%. With an average of 1.4 shots at goal per game, he's consistently putting himself in scoring positions. Additionally, his 2.8 score involvements per game highlight his impact in Port Adelaide's forward line. Facing Essendon, against whom he averages a goal per game, Berry's track record suggests he's poised to make an impact. The odds are in our favor for Berry to continue his scoring trend and split the middle at Marvel Stadium.

That is the model's read on today's AFL card. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

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