Here are our AFL picks for Saturday 29 August 2026. Our model likes 3 bets here. The one it likes most is Jake Bowey (Melbourne) Over 22.5 Disposals, priced at -119 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Jake Bowey (Melbourne) Over 22.5 Disposals (-119)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Melbourne Demons play Carlton Blues in the AFL. The bet we are looking at is Jake Bowey (Melbourne) Over 22.5 Disposals. It was priced at -119 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18.40 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Adam Cerra (Carlton) Under 21.5 Disposals (-120)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Melbourne Demons play Carlton Blues in the AFL. The bet we are looking at is Adam Cerra (Carlton) Under 21.5 Disposals. It was priced at -120 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18.30 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Trent Rivers (Melbourne) Over 9.5 player_kicks_over (-270)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Melbourne Demons play Carlton Blues in the AFL. The bet we are looking at is Trent Rivers (Melbourne) Over 9.5 player_kicks_over. It was priced at -270 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $13.70 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

That is the model's read on today's AFL card. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

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