Here are our AFL picks for Friday 21 August 2026. Our model likes 3 bets here. The one it likes most is Darcy Byrne-Jones (Port Adelaide) Under 24.5 Disposals, priced at -114 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Darcy Byrne-Jones (Port Adelaide) Under 24.5 Disposals (-114)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Looking at Darcy Byrne-Jones' recent performances, the data paints a clear picture for our bet on him to go under 24.5 disposals against Essendon. In his last five away games, he averages 23.8 disposals, just under the line. His contested possessions sit at 6.8, while his disposalefficiency stands at a solid 76.7%. Facing Essendon, he historically averages 15 disposals when playing away and 12.6 overall against them. With a hit streak of 3 in away games and 6 out of 7 overall, Byrne-Jones seems poised to stay below the line. The numbers suggest he may fall short in this matchup, making the under on his disposals a compelling bet to consider.

Finn O'Sullivan (North Melbourne) Under 22.5 Disposals (-111)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Finn O'Sullivan, the Kangaroos' midfield maestro, heads to the SCG with an impressive track record but faces a tough ask against the Swans. Despite recent form showing a solid 15.8 disposals per game away, his clash with the Swans paints a different picture. In his last five games against Sydney, Finn averaged 20 disposals overall but only 20 away from home. His disposals efficiency of 75.2% is commendable, but the Swans pose a different challenge. With a hit streak of 7 games away but a hit rate of 0 in his overall last 20, the odds lean towards the under. Finn's recent struggles against the Swans suggest he may fall short of the 22.5 disposals line, making the under an enticing bet.

Dyson Sharp (Essendon) Under 22.5 Disposals (-111)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Looking at Dyson Sharp's recent form, it's clear he's been a pivotal figure in Essendon's midfield. However, his home ground averages of 20.6 disposals over the last five games, while impressive, fall short of the 22.5 line set by sportsbet. Against Port Adelaide, who have limited him to just 5 disposals on average in their recent encounters, Sharp might face a tough challenge. His disposal efficiency of 73.6% and ability to gain meters (224.4 on average) are commendable, but Port's tight defense could disrupt his flow. With Sharp's turnovers averaging 3.6 per game, there's a risk of him being forced into errors under pressure. Considering these factors, backing Sharp to stay below 22.5 disposals seems like a prudent play to make on this footy clash at Marvel Stadium.

That is the model's read on today's AFL card. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

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