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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Jayden Short is Over 17.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 90%, versus the book's implied 77%, for a model edge of +13.6%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 5, 10:57AM UTC
AFL

Jayden Short

Richmond

+13.6% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 17.5 -333 (1.30)
+13.6% Edge
Richmond Tigers @ Adelaide Crows
Adelaide Oval, Adelaide, SA · Outdoor
Sat 8 Aug, 9:35AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 18°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
90.5%
Implied Probability
76.9%
Model Edge
+13.6%
Predicted Value
24.0 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals90.5%76.9%1.11+13.6%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games1/3
Last 5 games2/5
Last 10 games6/10

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AI Analysis

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Jayden Short (Richmond) Over 17.5 Disposals (-333)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to Jayden Short hitting the Over 17.5 disposals mark against the Adelaide Crows, the numbers paint a vivid picture. Short's recent away form showcases his capacity to impact games, averaging a solid 22.4 disposals over his last five road matches. Moreover, facing the Crows, he has historically tallied around 23 disposals in his last five encounters. With a knack for finding the footy and his current away hit streak standing at an impressive 8 out of 9 games, Short seems poised to thrive. His ability to read the play, intercept, and rack up metres gained further solidifies the rationale behind backing him to surpass the 17.5 disposal line in this clash at Adelaide Oval.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

1 market live
Disposalsvs Adelaide CrowsO 18.5 -227
60%hit L10 O 18.5
19.2avg disposals L5
Away22.4vs Adelaide Crows23.6Season best31
O 16.580%
O 17.560%
O 18.560%
O 19.560%
O 20.560%
O 21.540%
Game log vs line (O 18.5)9 / 10 hit
25162423232522272925

Jayden Short has gone over 18.5 disposals in 6 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 19.2 disposals, best 31). Current line: Over 18.5 at -227.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
02 Aug 26 West Coast Eagles @ Richmond Tigers Disposals 16.5 Over -769 ✓ HIT
02 Aug 26 West Coast Eagles @ Richmond Tigers Disposals 17.5 Over -500 ✗ MISS
02 Aug 26 West Coast Eagles @ Richmond Tigers Disposals 18.5 Over -625 ✗ MISS
02 Aug 26 West Coast Eagles @ Richmond Tigers Disposals Pending
02 Aug 26 West Coast Eagles @ Richmond Tigers Disposals Pending
25 Jul 26 Richmond Tigers @ Western Bulldogs Disposals Pending

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About This Player

Jayden Short (Richmond) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Jayden Short is Over 17.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +13.6% on this pick. Their next game is Richmond Tigers vs Adelaide Crows on Saturday 8 August at Adelaide Oval, Adelaide. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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