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The latest Bet Better model pick for Jayden Short is Over 19.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 82%, versus the book's implied 76%, for a model edge of +5.4%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 16, 8:17AM UTC
AFL

Jayden Short

Richmond

+5.4% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 19.5 -323 (1.31)
+5.4% Edge
Hawthorn Hawks @ Richmond Tigers
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sun 19 Jul, 3:10AM
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Model Probability
81.8%
Implied Probability
76.3%
Model Edge
+5.4%
Predicted Value
24.0 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals81.8%76.3%1.22+5.4%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games2/3
Last 5 games4/5
Last 10 games9/10

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AI Analysis

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Jayden Short (Richmond) Over 19.5 Disposals (-323)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to reliable ball movers, Jayden Short stands out like a beacon in the Richmond Tigers' defensive arsenal. His recent home performances have been nothing short of stellar, averaging a healthy 24.4 disposals per game over the last five matchups. Short's precise kicking game, highlighted by an impressive 81.2% disposal efficiency, ensures he's a key link in Richmond's possession game. Facing off against the Hawthorn Hawks, a team he's historically performed well against with an average of 25.7 disposals in their last five encounters, Short seems poised to exploit their weaknesses once more. Short's ability to intercept opposition plays (averaging 3.2 per game) coupled with his knack for gaining valuable meters (520.4 per game) make him a pivotal figure in setting up Richmond's attacks. With a line set at 19.5 disposals, the data suggests Short is primed to surpass this mark, providing punters with a solid opportunity to back him to shine brightly at the MCG.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

1 market live
Disposalsvs HawthornO 20.5 -233+6.0% edge
80%hit L10 O 20.5
20.8avg disposals L5
Home24.4vs Hawthorn23.2Season best31
O 18.580%
O 19.580%
O 20.580%
O 21.560%
O 22.560%
O 23.550%
Game log vs line (O 20.5)9 / 10 hit
25162423232522272925

Jayden Short has gone over 20.5 disposals in 8 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 20.8 disposals, best 31). Current line: Over 20.5 at -233, model edge +6.0%.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
04 Jul 26 Carlton Blues @ Richmond Tigers Disposals 21.5 Over -303 ✗ MISS
04 Jul 26 Carlton Blues @ Richmond Tigers Disposals 20.5 Over -455 ✗ MISS
04 Jul 26 Carlton Blues @ Richmond Tigers Disposals 19.5 Over -588 ✓ HIT
04 Jul 26 Carlton Blues @ Richmond Tigers Disposals Pending
04 Jul 26 Carlton Blues @ Richmond Tigers Disposals Pending
14 Jun 26 Brisbane Lions @ Richmond Tigers Disposals Pending

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About This Player

Jayden Short (Richmond) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Jayden Short is Over 19.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +5.4% on this pick. Their next game is Hawthorn Hawks vs Richmond Tigers on Sunday 19 July at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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