Bet Better BET BETTER PRO
Log in
Today's bet is live / One clear pick a day / Tracked in public — wins & losses / Free to start, no card
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Seth Campbell is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On the Goals market the model assigns a model win probability of 74%, versus the book's implied 61%, for a model edge of +12.8%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 2:04PM UTC
AFL

Seth Campbell

Richmond

+12.8% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Goals Over 0.5 -156 (1.64)
+12.8% Edge
Carlton Blues @ Richmond Tigers
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 4 Jul, 9:35AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL and NFL only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
73.8%
Implied Probability
61.0%
Model Edge
+12.8%
Predicted Value
1.0 Goals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals73.8%—61.0%1.36+12.8%

See every market's calibrated edge

Unlock the full calibrated-probability grid across every market for this player — model vs calibrated vs fair value.

Bet Better Unlock All Markets
Cancel anytime

Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games3/3
Last 5 games5/5
Last 10 games8/10

See the full 20-game form curve

Unlock the complete recent-form hit-rate curve (last 3, 5, 10, 15, 20 & current streak) for this player.

Bet Better Unlock Full Form Curve
Cancel anytime

AI Analysis

SUBSCRIBERS

Seth Campbell (Richmond) Over 0.5 Goals (-156)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Looking at Seth Campbell's recent form playing at home, he's been a consistent threat in front of goal, averaging 0.6 goals in his last 5 home games. With a sharp eye for the big sticks and averaging 1.8 shots at goal, Campbell is not one to shy away from taking his chances. His involvement in the Tigers' forward line is evident, with an average of 5.2 score involvements per game. Additionally, facing Carlton, against whom he averages 1 goal per game at home, further boosts his scoring potential. Given his track record and the likelihood of him snagging at least one goal, betting on Campbell to score over 0.5 goals in this matchup seems like a solid play. So, expect Campbell to be hungry to bag one and make an impact at the MCG.

Unlock the full breakdown

See the model's complete reasoning behind this pick — matchup edges, key numbers and confidence — plus full analysis on every game.

Bet Better Unlock Full Analysis
Cancel anytime

Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
17.6avg disposals L5
Home17.4vs Hawthorn12.3Season best19
O 15.560%
O 16.560%
O 17.540%
O 18.540%
O 19.530%
O 20.520%
Game log vs line (O 17.5)avg 10.5 · hi 19 · lo 4
9135419101561311

Seth Campbell has gone over 17.5 disposals in 4 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 17.6 disposals, best 19).

GoalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
0.4avg goals L5
Home0.6vs Hawthorn0.7Season best2
O 0.530%
O 1.520%
O 2.510%
Game log vs line (O 0.5)avg 0.6 · hi 2 · lo 0
2100111000

Seth Campbell has gone over 0.5 goals in 3 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 0.4 goals, best 2).

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
04 Jul 26 Carlton Blues @ Richmond Tigers Goals 0.5 Over -156 ✓ HIT
14 Jun 26 Brisbane Lions @ Richmond Tigers Goals 0.5 Over -192 ✓ HIT

See the complete track record

Unlock every graded pick for this player — full dates, lines, odds and results — across the whole season.

Bet Better Unlock Full History
Cancel anytime

About This Player

Seth Campbell (Richmond) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Seth Campbell is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +12.8% on this pick. Their next game is Carlton Blues vs Richmond Tigers on Saturday 4 July at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

Today's selected board

See the plays that cleared the model's filter today

See today's picks