Seth Campbell (Richmond) Over 0.5 Goals (-130)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Seth Campbell shapes as a reasonable play to kick at least one goal at GMHBA Stadium, with the model projecting 0.8 goals against a line of 0.5 — a 5.6% edge over the implied probability of 56.5% at $1.77. The case isn't built on dominance; it's built on consistency. Campbell is averaging 0.6 goals across his last five overall and his last five away games specifically, and his shot-at-goal rate away from home sits at 0.8 per game — meaning he's getting chances, even if his 20% goal accuracy keeps the ceiling modest. His score involvements (3.0 away, 3.2 overall) suggest he's finding the ball in dangerous positions regularly enough. Against Geelong specifically, he's averaging 0.5 goals in away contests and 1.0 overall across the L5 sample. The model sees him clearing the bar more often than the market implies — that's the edge worth taking here.