Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Sam Walsh is Over 24.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 79%, versus the book's implied 78%, for a model edge of +1.2%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 11:14AM UTC
AFL
Sam Walsh
Carlton
Latest Model Pick
Disposals
Over 24.5
-357 (1.28)
+1.2% Edge
Hawthorn Hawks
@
Carlton Blues
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 11 Jul, 9:35AM
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Implied Probability
78.1%
Predicted Value
28.6 Disposals
| Market | Model | Model probability | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Disposals | 79.4% | — | 78.1% | 1.26 | +1.2% |
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Sam Walsh (Carlton) Over 24.5 Disposals (-357)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Sam Walsh is one of the most reliable disposal merchants in the competition right now, and the 24.5 line looks well below where he's actually operating. The model projects him at 28.6 disposals — a 4.1-disposal gap over the line — with just a 1.2% edge baked in against the 78.1% implied probability at $1.28. The numbers back it up hard: Walsh is averaging 28.6 across his last five overall and a near-identical 28 at home, where his contested possession work lifts noticeably (9.6 vs 7.8 overall) and he generates 285 metres gained per game. Against Hawthorn specifically, he's averaging 27 at home and 26.6 overall across his last five matchups — both comfortably clearing this line. His L20 hit rate of 16/20 (80%) at this threshold is the clincher. The edge here is modest but the consistency is genuine.
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Betting angles
Markets & formDisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted 26avg disposals recent
Season best35
Disposals last 10avg 26 · hi 32 · lo 22
Sam Walsh has a disposals high of 35 in AFL.
Sam Walsh (Carlton) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Sam Walsh is Over 24.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +1.2% on this pick. Their next game is Hawthorn Hawks vs Carlton Blues on Saturday 11 July at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.
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