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The latest Bet Better model pick for Sam Walsh is Over 25.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 51 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 51%, implied 67%, edge +6.5%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 30, 5:21PM UTC
AFL

Sam Walsh

Carlton

+6.5% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 25.5 -200 (1.50) · $100→$150
+6.5% Edge
Carlton Blues @ St Kilda Saints
Marvel Stadium, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sun 9 Aug, 9:20AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 17°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
73 in 100
Predicted
28.6 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 73.2% · the book's price implies 66.7% · gap +6.5%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals73.2%51.4%66.7%1.94+6.5%

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AI Analysis

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Sam Walsh (Carlton) Over 25.5 Disposals (-200)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Sam Walsh, the Carlton Blues' midfield maestro, is set to make waves at Marvel Stadium against the St Kilda Saints. Over his last five away matchups, Walsh has been a disposal machine, averaging a hefty 26.6 possessions per game. With a recent hit streak of 2 and an impressive overall hit rate, he's primed to exceed the 25.5 disposal line set by the bookies. Walsh's ability to find the footy in contested situations (7.6 avg) and cover ground (254.4 meters gained avg) showcases his well-rounded game. Against St Kilda, he's stepped up, averaging 23.5 disposals in their recent encounters. With his knack for intercepts (1.8 avg) and efficient ball use (77.9% disposal efficiency avg), backing Walsh to surpass 25.5 disposals is a smart bet with a high likelihood of cashing in.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 5 of last 5(100%)

Season averages (2024)

Sam Walsh averaged 28.4 disposals, 0.3 goals and 3.0 marks per game across 20 games in 2024.

28.4
Disposals
0.3
Goals
3.0
Marks
6.8
Tackles

Hit-rate ladder: Disposals

Sam Walsh has cleared 21.5 disposals in 100% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.

o21.5100%
o22.590%
o24.590%
o25.580%
o27.560%
o28.560%
o30.560%
o32.540%
o33.520%
o35.50%
o36.50%
o38.50%

Home / away and opponent splits

Sam Walsh is averaging 29.8 disposals per game over his last 5.

29.8
Disp · Overall
0.6
Goals · Overall

Recent game log

In his most recent game (7 Sep 24 vs Brisbane Lions), Sam Walsh recorded 28 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
7 Sep 24Brisbane Lions28025
25 Aug 24St Kilda32048
18 Aug 24West Coast Eagles23056
11 Aug 24Hawthorn24064
3 Aug 24Collingwood300106
26 Jul 24Port Adelaide230111
21 Jul 24North Melbourne25017
13 Jul 24Western Bulldogs27016
6 Jul 24GWS GIANTS22013
30 Jun 24Richmond262510
Quick answers:How many disposals does Sam Walsh average?
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
09 Aug 26 Carlton Blues @ St Kilda Saints Disposals 25.5 Over -200 ✓ HIT
09 Aug 26 Carlton Blues @ St Kilda Saints Disposals 24.5 Over -294 ✓ HIT
09 Aug 26 Carlton Blues @ St Kilda Saints Disposals 23.5 Over -500 ✓ HIT
09 Aug 26 Carlton Blues @ St Kilda Saints Disposals — — — Pending
11 Jul 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Carlton Blues Disposals — — — Pending
11 Jul 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Carlton Blues Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Sam Walsh (Carlton) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Sam Walsh is Over 25.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +6.5% on this pick. Their next game is Carlton Blues vs St Kilda Saints on Sunday 9 August at Marvel Stadium, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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