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The latest Bet Better model pick for Sam Walsh is Over 25.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 73%, versus the book's implied 67%, for a model edge of +6.5%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 10, 2:22PM UTC
AFL

Sam Walsh

Carlton

+6.5% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 25.5 -200 (1.50) · $100→$150
+6.5% Edge
Carlton Blues @ St Kilda Saints
Marvel Stadium, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sun 9 Aug, 9:20AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 17°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
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Model Probability
73.2%
Implied Probability
66.7%
Model Edge
+6.5%
Predicted Value
28.6 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals73.2%—66.7%1.37+6.5%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games3/3
Last 5 games5/5
Last 10 games10/10

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AI Analysis

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Sam Walsh (Carlton) Over 25.5 Disposals (-200)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Sam Walsh, the Carlton Blues' midfield maestro, is set to make waves at Marvel Stadium against the St Kilda Saints. Over his last five away matchups, Walsh has been a disposal machine, averaging a hefty 26.6 possessions per game. With a recent hit streak of 2 and an impressive overall hit rate, he's primed to exceed the 25.5 disposal line set by the bookies. Walsh's ability to find the footy in contested situations (7.6 avg) and cover ground (254.4 meters gained avg) showcases his well-rounded game. Against St Kilda, he's stepped up, averaging 23.5 disposals in their recent encounters. With his knack for intercepts (1.8 avg) and efficient ball use (77.9% disposal efficiency avg), backing Walsh to surpass 25.5 disposals is a smart bet with a high likelihood of cashing in.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 5 of last 5(100%)

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
60%hit L10 O 27.5
28avg disposals L5
Away26.6vs St Kilda29.6Season best35
O 25.570%
O 26.570%
O 27.560%
O 28.550%
O 29.550%
O 30.540%
Game log vs line (O 27.5)avg 26 · hi 32 · lo 22
26222725233024233228

Sam Walsh has gone over 27.5 disposals in 6 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 28 disposals, best 35).

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
09 Aug 26 Carlton Blues @ St Kilda Saints Disposals 25.5 Over -200 ✓ HIT
09 Aug 26 Carlton Blues @ St Kilda Saints Disposals 24.5 Over -294 ✓ HIT
09 Aug 26 Carlton Blues @ St Kilda Saints Disposals 23.5 Over -500 ✓ HIT
09 Aug 26 Carlton Blues @ St Kilda Saints Disposals — — — Pending
11 Jul 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Carlton Blues Disposals — — — Pending
11 Jul 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Carlton Blues Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Sam Walsh (Carlton) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Sam Walsh is Over 25.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +6.5% on this pick. Their next game is Carlton Blues vs St Kilda Saints on Sunday 9 August at Marvel Stadium, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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