Sam Walsh (Carlton) Over 26.5 Disposals (-154)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Sam Walsh is in the kind of form that makes a line of 26.5 look genuinely thin. The model projects him at 29.1 disposals — a 2.6-touch buffer above the number — with a 10.9% edge against implied odds of 60.6%. That's a meaningful gap, not a marginal one.
The underlying numbers back it up hard. Walsh is averaging 29 disposals across his last five away games, and specifically against Geelong in away fixtures he's averaging 31 — well clear of this line. His overall L5 sits at 31.4, and he's hit this mark in three straight games with a 3/3 recent hit rate overall and 2/3 away. The engine room of his game is humming too: 11.2 contested possessions and 314.8 metres gained away from home tell you he's not just accumulating — he's working hard for his touches. At $1.65, this represents a legitimate edge worth backing.