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The latest Bet Better model pick for Bailey Humphrey is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On the Goals market the model assigns a model win probability of 73%, versus the book's implied 72%, for a model edge of +0.9%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 17, 9:37AM UTC
AFL

Bailey Humphrey

Gold Coast SUNS

+0.9% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Goals Over 0.5 -263 (1.38)
+0.9% Edge
Western Bulldogs @ Gold Coast Suns
People First Stadium, Gold Coast, QLD · Outdoor
Sun 19 Jul, 5:15AM
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Model Probability
73.4%
Implied Probability
72.5%
Model Edge
+0.9%
Predicted Value
1.0 Goals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals73.4%—72.5%1.36+0.9%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games1/3
Last 5 games2/5
Last 10 games6/10

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AI Analysis

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Bailey Humphrey (Gold Coast SUNS) Over 0.5 Goals (-263)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Bailey Humphrey is primed to light up the scoreboard when the Gold Coast Suns take on the Western Bulldogs at People First Stadium. In his last 5 home games, Humphrey has been a scoring machine, averaging 1 goal per game. With a keen eye for the big sticks and an impressive 21.0% goal accuracy rate, he's proven to be a reliable goal-kicker for the Suns. Moreover, in his recent matchups against the Bulldogs, Humphrey has consistently snagged goals, averaging 0.5 per game. His knack for finding the back of the net coupled with his strong form at home makes him a solid bet to score over 0.5 goals in this upcoming clash. Humphrey's scoring prowess, combined with the Suns' attacking style of play, sets the stage for him to split the middle and deliver for punters looking to capitalize on his goal-scoring ability.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

1 market live
Goalsvs Western BulldogsO 0.5 -256+1.5% edge
50%hit L10 O 0.5
1avg goals L5
Home1vs Western Bulldogs0.5Season best5
O 0.550%
O 1.510%
O 2.510%
Game log vs line (O 0.5)3 / 10 hit
0002100100

Bailey Humphrey has gone over 0.5 goals in 5 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 1 goals, best 5). Current line: Over 0.5 at -256, model edge +1.5%.

DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
60%hit L10 O 11.5
11.4avg disposals L5
Home14.6vs Western Bulldogs21.5Season best17
O 10.560%
O 11.560%
O 12.540%
O 13.530%
O 14.520%
O 15.520%
Game log vs line (O 11.5)avg 9.5 · hi 17 · lo 4
466121317109810

Bailey Humphrey has gone over 11.5 disposals in 6 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 11.4 disposals, best 17).

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
11 Jul 26 Gold Coast Suns @ Adelaide Crows Goals 0.5 Over -147 ✓ HIT
04 Jul 26 Collingwood Magpies @ Gold Coast Suns Goals 0.5 Over -256 ✓ HIT

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About This Player

Bailey Humphrey (Gold Coast SUNS) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Bailey Humphrey is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a slight edge of +0.9% on this pick. Their next game is Western Bulldogs vs Gold Coast Suns on Sunday 19 July at People First Stadium, Gold Coast. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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