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The latest Bet Better model pick for Bailey Humphrey is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On the Goals market the model assigns a model win probability of 73%, versus the book's implied 69%, for a model edge of +4.0%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 6, 10:57AM UTC
AFL

Bailey Humphrey

Gold Coast SUNS

+4.0% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Goals Over 0.5 -227 (1.44)
+4.0% Edge
Gold Coast Suns @ Greater Western Sydney Giants
Corroboree Group Oval Manuka, Canberra, ACT · Outdoor
Sun 9 Aug, 3:10AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: sunny, 22°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
73.4%
Implied Probability
69.4%
Model Edge
+4.0%
Predicted Value
1.0 Goals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals73.4%—69.4%1.36+4.0%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games3/3
Last 5 games5/5
Last 10 games8/10

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AI Analysis

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Bailey Humphrey (Gold Coast SUNS) Over 0.5 Goals (-227)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Bailey Humphrey is primed to snag a goal against the Greater Western Sydney Giants this Sunday. Over his last 5 away games, he's been a consistent threat in front of the big sticks, averaging 1 goal per game. With a solid goal accuracy of 50% and 1.2 shots per game in his recent away fixtures, Humphrey has been making his opportunities count. His involvement in scoring plays has been stellar, averaging 4 score involvements per game, showcasing his impact on the Suns' attacking setups. Facing the Giants, whom he's averaged 1 goal against in their last 5 encounters, Humphrey's form and recent goal-scoring trends make him a strong bet to find the back of the net in this matchup. Backing Bailey to bag one is a smart move given his recent performance and scoring history.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 3 of last 3(100%)

Betting angles

1 market live
Goalsvs Greater Western Sydney GiantsO 0.5 -227
70%hit L10 O 0.5
2avg goals L5
Away1vs GWS GIANTS0.6Season best5
O 0.570%
O 1.530%
O 2.520%
Game log vs line (O 0.5)3 / 10 hit
0002100100

Bailey Humphrey has gone over 0.5 goals in 7 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 2 goals, best 5). Current line: Over 0.5 at -227.

DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
13.6avg disposals L5
Away10.8vs GWS GIANTS13Season best17
O 11.570%
O 12.540%
O 13.530%
O 14.520%
O 15.520%
O 16.510%
Game log vs line (O 13.5)avg 9.5 · hi 17 · lo 4
466121317109810

Bailey Humphrey has gone over 13.5 disposals in 3 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 13.6 disposals, best 17).

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
25 Jul 26 Gold Coast Suns @ Carlton Blues Goals 0.5 Over -244 ✓ HIT
19 Jul 26 Western Bulldogs @ Gold Coast Suns Goals 0.5 Over -256 ✓ HIT
11 Jul 26 Gold Coast Suns @ Adelaide Crows Goals 0.5 Over -147 ✓ HIT

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About This Player

Bailey Humphrey (Gold Coast SUNS) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Bailey Humphrey is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a slight edge of +4.0% on this pick. Their next game is Gold Coast Suns vs Greater Western Sydney Giants on Sunday 9 August at Corroboree Group Oval Manuka, Canberra. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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