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The latest Bet Better model pick for Christian Petracca is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On the Goals market the model assigns a model win probability of 73%, versus the book's implied 65%, for a model edge of +7.8%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 6, 12:58PM UTC
AFL

Christian Petracca

Gold Coast SUNS

+7.8% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Goals Over 0.5 -189 (1.53)
+7.8% Edge
Gold Coast Suns @ Greater Western Sydney Giants
Corroboree Group Oval Manuka, Canberra, ACT · Outdoor
Sun 9 Aug, 3:10AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 20°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
73.1%
Implied Probability
65.4%
Model Edge
+7.8%
Predicted Value
1.0 Goals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals73.1%—65.4%1.37+7.8%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games1/3
Last 5 games2/5
Last 10 games4/10

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AI Analysis

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Christian Petracca (Gold Coast SUNS) Over 0.5 Goals (-189)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing Christian Petracca to snag over 0.5 goals against the GWS Giants, the numbers paint a promising picture. Despite a modest average of 0.6 goals in his last five away games, Petracca's recent form against this opponent suggests he's primed to elevate his scoring. With an average of 1 goal in his last five matchups against the Giants, Petracca has shown he can step up when facing this particular challenge. His knack for being involved in the scoring plays, evidenced by his 5.6 score involvements per game, coupled with the Giants' defense that has been conceding an average of 1.2 goals to individual players like Petracca, sets the stage for a potentially profitable bet on him to light up the scoreboard. Petracca's hunger for goals and the historical data align to make him a compelling choice for hitting that over 0.5 mark this weekend.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 5 of last 5(100%)

Betting angles

1 market live
Goalsvs Greater Western Sydney GiantsO 0.5 -161
70%hit L10 O 0.5
0.8avg goals L5
Away0.6vs GWS GIANTS1.2Season best5
O 0.570%
O 1.510%
Game log vs line (O 0.5)6 / 10 hit
0101051210

Christian Petracca has gone over 0.5 goals in 7 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 0.8 goals, best 5). Current line: Over 0.5 at -161.

DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
50%hit L10 O 22.5
22.4avg disposals L5
Away22.2vs GWS GIANTS30Season best29
O 20.560%
O 21.550%
O 22.550%
O 23.540%
O 24.540%
O 25.540%
Game log vs line (O 22.5)avg 22 · hi 29 · lo 13
23292023212120242613

Christian Petracca has gone over 22.5 disposals in 5 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 22.4 disposals, best 29).

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
11 Jul 26 Gold Coast Suns @ Adelaide Crows Goals 0.5 Over -270 ✓ HIT
04 Jul 26 Collingwood Magpies @ Gold Coast Suns Disposals 19.5 Over -667 ✓ HIT
04 Jul 26 Collingwood Magpies @ Gold Coast Suns Disposals 20.5 Over -455 ✓ HIT
04 Jul 26 Collingwood Magpies @ Gold Coast Suns Disposals — — — Pending
04 Jul 26 Collingwood Magpies @ Gold Coast Suns Disposals — — — Pending
04 Jul 26 Collingwood Magpies @ Gold Coast Suns Goals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Christian Petracca (Gold Coast SUNS) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Christian Petracca is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +7.8% on this pick. Their next game is Gold Coast Suns vs Greater Western Sydney Giants on Sunday 9 August at Corroboree Group Oval Manuka, Canberra. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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