Christian Petracca (Gold Coast SUNS) Over 0.5 Goals (-161)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Petracca's overall hit rate of 10 from his last 14 games (71%) clearing the single-goal mark is the headline figure here, sitting comfortably above the 61.7% implied probability baked into the $1.62 price. That's where the 7.6% model edge lives, and it's a meaningful gap. The model projects him at exactly 1.0 goals, so the over 0.5 line is essentially asking him to do what he's done in nearly three-quarters of recent outings.
The away numbers are the honest caveat — his L5 away goals average drops to 0.4 and goal accuracy is just 16.7% on the road — but his L5 record against Brisbane specifically tells a better story, averaging 1.0 goals away and 1.2 overall in those matchups. He's generating 2.2 shots at goal per away game, meaning the chances are presenting; he just needs one to go through the big sticks.