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The latest Bet Better model pick for Ben Long is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On the Goals market the model assigns a model win probability of 90%, versus the book's implied 82%, for a model edge of +8.0%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 17, 9:33AM UTC
AFL

Ben Long

Gold Coast SUNS

+8.0% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Goals Over 0.5 -455 (1.22)
+8.0% Edge
Western Bulldogs @ Gold Coast Suns
People First Stadium, Gold Coast, QLD · Outdoor
Sun 19 Jul, 5:15AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
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Model Probability
90.0%
Implied Probability
82.0%
Model Edge
+8.0%
Predicted Value
1.5 Goals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals90.0%—82.0%1.11+8.0%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games2/3
Last 5 games3/5
Last 10 games7/10

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AI Analysis

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Ben Long (Gold Coast SUNS) Over 0.5 Goals (-455)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing Ben Long to snag over half a goal in the upcoming Gold Coast Suns versus Western Bulldogs clash at People First Stadium, the numbers paint a promising picture. Long's recent form at home has been solid, averaging 1.6 goals per game over his last five matches. His sharp shooting accuracy of 43.3% and consistent involvement in scores make him a potent attacking threat. Facing the Bulldogs, against whom he's averaged 0.5 goals in their last five home encounters, Long has a track record of making an impact. With an average of 3 shots on goal per game and a knack for getting involved in scoring plays, Long is poised to keep the streak alive and find the back of the net, making the Over 0.5 goals prop a compelling bet.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 3 of last 4(75%)

Betting angles

1 market live
Goalsvs Western BulldogsO 0.5 -385+10.6% edge
60%hit L10 O 0.5
1.6avg goals L5
Home1.6vs Western Bulldogs0.3Season best4
O 0.560%
O 1.560%
O 2.510%
O 3.510%
Game log vs line (O 0.5)8 / 10 hit
1221113003

Ben Long has gone over 0.5 goals in 6 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 1.6 goals, best 4). Current line: Over 0.5 at -385, model edge +10.6%.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
12 Jun 26 Gold Coast Suns @ Geelong Cats Goals 0.5 Over -250 ✗ MISS
18 Apr 26 Essendon Bombers @ Gold Coast Suns Goals 0.5 Over -625 ✓ HIT
11 Apr 26 Gold Coast Suns @ Sydney Swans Goals 0.5 Over -345 ✓ HIT
05 Apr 26 Gold Coast Suns @ Melbourne Demons Goals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Ben Long (Gold Coast SUNS) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Ben Long is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +8.0% on this pick. Their next game is Western Bulldogs vs Gold Coast Suns on Sunday 19 July at People First Stadium, Gold Coast. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.