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Model picks & player props
Richmond Tigers
VS
Fremantle Dockers

Richmond Tigers vs Fremantle Dockers Picks & Predictions

Model updated Jul 24, 1:23AM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

AFL
Optus Stadium, Perth
Outdoor
Sat 28 Mar 2026, 5:15AM
1
Game Picks
9
Player Props
Answer
Model lean: Over 151.5 (Total Points)
For Richmond Tigers vs Fremantle Dockers (AFL), model win probability 69.3%, fair odds 1.44, book price -111, model edge +16.7%, this is your free pick — unlock every other market and all player props with Pro. Tip-off Sat 28 Mar 2026, 5:15AM at Optus Stadium.
Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record

Game picks

+EV edge in green
Total Points
Over
151.5
Player props & full board
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
OverTotal PointsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Tigers

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Dockers

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Richmond Tigers vs Fremantle Dockers: Wet or windy conditions tend to lower AFL scoring, though live conditions for this exact fixture aren't wired in here yet, and player availability isn't tracked for AFL on this page.
FactorThis fixture
Match conditionsWet weather slows AFL scoring and lifts the value of contested-ball sides, but live per-fixture conditions aren't joined to this page yet.

General rule: wet weather lowers AFL scoring and rewards contested-ball and defensive sides, while a late out among key forwards or midfielders reshapes a team's scoring spread.

Live per-fixture AFL conditions aren't joined to this page yet — the note above is a general conditions rule, not this exact game's forecast.

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Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Jonty Faull Richmond Goals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Sam Lalor Richmond Goals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Dion Prestia Richmond Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Patrick Voss Fremantle Goals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Brandon Walker Fremantle Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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Richmond Tigers @ Fremantle Dockers — model preview

<p>Unlock potential winning bets for Fremantle Dockers playing Richmond Tigers. Includes analysis on key players like Dion Prestia. Analysis includes AFL predictions, AFL game picks, betting preview, Fremantle Dockers vs Richmond Tigers stats and odds.</p>

Dion Prestia (Richmond) Over 17.5 Disposals (-233)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to Dion Prestia hitting the Over 17.5 disposals mark against Fremantle, the stats paint a compelling picture. Over his last five away games, he's been a midfield maestro, averaging 19.4 disposals, with a stellar 78.4% disposal efficiency. Facing the Dockers, he's stepped up even more, averaging 29 disposals in his recent encounters. With his ability to find space and create plays, Prestia is poised to make a significant impact. Plus, boasting an impressive 9 out of 10 hit rate in away games, and riding a hot streak of 2 overall, he's in fine form. Expect Prestia to be in the thick of the action, racking up possessions and driving Richmond's midfield dominance at Optus Stadium.

Brandon Walker (Fremantle) Over 12.5 Disposals (-164)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing Brandon Walker to surpass 12.5 disposals against Richmond at Optus Stadium, the numbers paint a compelling picture. Over his last five home games, Walker has been a consistent ball magnet, averaging 14.6 disposals, with a solid disposal efficiency of 75.9%. His ability to find the footy is further highlighted by his average of 7.2 kicks and 7.4 handballs per game in that stretch. Against this week's opponent, Richmond, he has historically elevated his game with an average of 10.8 disposals in their recent encounters. With Walker's form and matchup favoring a higher workload, hitting the over on 12.5 disposals seems like a wise wager for this upcoming clash in Perth.

Dion Prestia (Richmond) Over 16.5 Disposals (-333)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a player prop, Dion Prestia for Over 16.5 disposals stands out like a specky in a pack. With an average of 19.4 disposals in his last five away games and a solid 29 disposals per game against Fremantle, Prestia knows how to find the footy, especially when facing the Dockers. His recent form is hotter than a Perth summer, boasting a stellar 78.4% disposal efficiency and an average of 221 meters gained per game. With an overall hit rate of 19/20 disposals, Prestia is as reliable as a full-forward in front of the big sticks. Expect him to rack up the possessions and split the middle with this Over 16.5 disposals bet against Fremantle at Optus Stadium.

Brandon Walker (Fremantle) Over 11.5 Disposals (-244)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a player prop bet, Brandon Walker for the Fremantle Dockers stands out like a beacon in the night. In his last five home games, Walker has been a midfield maestro, racking up an average of 14.6 disposals. Facing Richmond at Optus Stadium, Walker's recent form suggests he's poised to continue his dominant run. With an average of 7.2 kicks and 7.4 handballs per game at home, he's a key playmaker who's been consistently involved in the action. Additionally, his disposal efficiency of 75.9% demonstrates his composure under pressure. Walker's ability to cover the ground with an average of 217.4 meters gained per game further solidifies his case for hitting over 11.5 disposals. Bet on Walker to shine bright and surpass the line with ease.

Jacob Hopper (Richmond) Over 21.5 Disposals (-227)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing Jacob Hopper to go Over 21.5 disposals against Fremantle, the stats paint a compelling picture. Hopper's recent form on the road has been solid, averaging 26 disposals in his last five away games. His ability to find the footy is evident, with an average of 15 handballs and 11 kicks in those matches. Additionally, his disposalefficiency sits at a respectable 63.4% away from home. Facing Fremantle, Hopper has historically performed well, averaging 22 disposals in their recent matchups. With a current hit rate of 10 out of 12 in away games and 17 out of 20 overall, Hopper is in a prime position to snag a goal and split the middle with this Over 21.5 disposals bet.

Jacob Hopper (Richmond) Over 20.5 Disposals (-323)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a player to hit the over on disposals in this Fremantle vs. Richmond clash, Jacob Hopper stands out like a beacon in the night. Hopper has been on a tear lately, averaging a whopping 26 disposals in his last five away games. His ability to find space and impact the game is second to none, with solid numbers in contested possessions, handballs, and kicks all pointing towards another big performance. Against Fremantle specifically, he's been even more prolific, averaging 22 disposals in their recent matchups. With Hopper's current form and track record against the Dockers, it's hard to ignore the value in taking the over on his 20.5 disposal line. Expect him to roam the field with purpose and snag a goal or two along the way.

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
1
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult
28 Mar 26 Total Points Over 151.5 ✗ MISS

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Richmond Tigers vs Fremantle Dockers in the AFL. The most recent or upcoming game is scheduled for Saturday 28 March 2026 at Optus Stadium. The model has generated 1 game pick and 9 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your AFL betting strategy for this matchup.

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