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The latest Bet Better model pick for Jonty Faull is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On the Goals market the model assigns a model win probability of 80%, versus the book's implied 61%, for a model edge of +19.3%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 11:17AM UTC
AFL

Jonty Faull

Richmond

+19.3% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Goals Over 0.5 -154 (1.65)
+19.3% Edge
Richmond Tigers @ North Melbourne Kangaroos
Marvel Stadium, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sun 19 Apr, 3:10AM
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Model Probability
79.9%
Implied Probability
60.6%
Model Edge
+19.3%
Predicted Value
1.2 Goals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals79.9%—60.6%1.25+19.3%

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AI Analysis

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Jonty Faull (Richmond) Over 0.5 Goals (-154)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to Jonty Faull snagging a goal against North Melbourne, the numbers are looking promising. Despite averaging just 0.6 goals per game in his last five away matches, Faull has been getting involved in the Tigers' forward movements. With an average of 2.2 shots at goal and 3.6 score involvements per game, he's certainly in the mix. Facing the Kangaroos, who he hasn't scored against in the last five games, Faull's hunger to break that streak could be the driving force. Additionally, with a goal accuracy of 14.7% in away games, he's been getting his chances. The odds might be in our favor here, with the model predicting him to bag at least one in this clash. So, backing Faull to split the middle at Marvel Stadium might just pay off nicely.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
GoalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted

Jonty Faull - AFL Goals market.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
19 Apr 26 Richmond Tigers @ North Melbourne Kangaroos Goals 0.5 Over -154 ✗ MISS
12 Apr 26 Richmond Tigers @ Greater Western Sydney Giants Goals 0.5 Over -213 ✓ HIT
04 Apr 26 Port Adelaide Power @ Richmond Tigers Goals 0.5 Over -385 ✗ MISS
28 Mar 26 Richmond Tigers @ Fremantle Dockers Goals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Jonty Faull (Richmond) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Jonty Faull is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +19.3% on this pick. Their next game is Richmond Tigers vs North Melbourne Kangaroos on Sunday 19 April at Marvel Stadium, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

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