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Model picks & player props
St Kilda Saints
VS
Adelaide Crows

St Kilda Saints vs Adelaide Crows Picks & Predictions

Model updated Jul 31, 2:02PM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

AFL
Adelaide Oval, Adelaide
Outdoor
Sat 18 Apr 2026, 9:35AM
7
Game Picks
18
Player Props
Answer
Model lean: Under 178.5 (Total Points)
For St Kilda Saints vs Adelaide Crows (AFL), model win probability 69.0%, fair odds 1.45, book price -111, model edge +16.4%, this is your free pick — unlock every other market and all player props with Pro. Tip-off Sat 18 Apr 2026, 9:35AM at Adelaide Oval.
Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record

Game picks

+EV edge in green
Total Points
Under
177.5
+ 6 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
UnderTotal PointsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal PointsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Adelaide CrowsHead to HeadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Saints

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Crows

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For St Kilda Saints vs Adelaide Crows: Wet or windy conditions tend to lower AFL scoring, though live conditions for this exact fixture aren't wired in here yet, and player availability isn't tracked for AFL on this page.
FactorThis fixture
Match conditionsWet weather slows AFL scoring and lifts the value of contested-ball sides, but live per-fixture conditions aren't joined to this page yet.

General rule: wet weather lowers AFL scoring and rewards contested-ball and defensive sides, while a late out among key forwards or midfielders reshapes a team's scoring spread.

Live per-fixture AFL conditions aren't joined to this page yet — the note above is a general conditions rule, not this exact game's forecast.

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Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Rowan Marshall St Kilda Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera St Kilda Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Cooper Sharman St Kilda Goals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Liam Ryan St Kilda Goals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Taylor Walker Adelaide Crows Goals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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St Kilda Saints @ Adelaide Crows — model preview

<p>Winning bets for Adelaide Crows vs St Kilda Saints? We break down odds and insights. Includes analysis on key players like Liam Ryan. Explore AFL predictions, AFL game picks, betting preview, Adelaide Crows vs St Kilda Saints stats and odds.</p>

Liam Ryan (St Kilda) Over 0.5 Goals (-244)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a player to snag a goal, Liam Ryan from St Kilda Saints is a solid bet for the upcoming clash against the Adelaide Crows. Ryan has been in fine form recently, hitting the back of the net in his last three away games. With an average of 0.8 goals per game in his last five away matches and a track record of scoring against the Crows, he's a real threat in front of goal. Moreover, Ryan's impressive goal accuracy of 40% and consistent involvement in creating scoring opportunities with 2.6 inside 50s per game make him a key player to watch. Couple that with his current hit streak of 5 games, including 3 consecutive away matches with goals, and the odds are in his favor to continue his scoring spree. With the model predicting him to score 1.2 goals, backing Liam Ryan to score over 0.5 goals is a smart play for this game.

Marcus Windhager (St Kilda) Over 21.5 Disposals (-196)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a player prop in the AFL, Marcus Windhager is as reliable as they come. The St Kilda midfielder has been tearing it up lately, averaging a whopping 25.4 disposals over his last five away games. What's more impressive is his consistency, hitting over 21.5 disposals in every single one of those matches. Windhager's ability to find the footy is second to none, with his contested possessions sitting at 9.6 per game and his disposal efficiency a solid 78.0%. Facing the Adelaide Crows, whom he's already averaged 17 disposals against this season, sets the stage for another standout performance. With a current hit streak of 7 away games and a hot streak of 7 out of his last 8 games overall, Windhager is primed to snag those crucial possessions and eclipse the 21.5 mark with ease.

Marcus Windhager (St Kilda) Over 19.5 Disposals (-357)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When looking at Marcus Windhager's recent form, it's clear he's been in a league of his own when it comes to racking up disposals. In his last five away games, Windhager has been a midfield maestro, averaging a whopping 25.4 disposals. His ability to find space and get his hands on the ball is exceptional, evidenced by his 13.6 kicks and 11.8 handballs per game in those outings. What's even more impressive is his consistency, hitting an average of 25.2 disposals overall in his last five games. Facing off against the Adelaide Crows, who he's historically dominated with an average of 17 disposals per game, the stage is set for Windhager to shine. With his current form and track record against the Crows, taking the Over on his disposals line of 19.5 with confidence seems like a savvy play.

Marcus Windhager (St Kilda) Over 20.5 Disposals (-270)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a player for disposals in the AFL, Marcus Windhager is a compelling choice. Windhager's recent form on the road has been nothing short of stellar, averaging a whopping 25.4 disposals per game over his last five away matches. His ability to find the footy, coupled with an impressive disposal efficiency of 78.0%, makes him a reliable asset in any game. Facing off against the Adelaide Crows, who he's historically averaged 17 disposals against, Windhager is poised to exceed the 20.5 disposal line set by sportsbet. With a current hit streak of 8 games on the road and a strong overall hit rate, the stars seem aligned for Windhager to maintain his exceptional form and snag us a win on this player prop. Bet on Windhager to shine and rack up the possessions in this upcoming clash.

Izak Rankine (Adelaide Crows) Over 0.5 Goals (-435)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to putting the ball through the big sticks, Izak Rankine has been a reliable go-to for the Adelaide Crows. In his last 5 home games, Rankine has been averaging a solid 1.4 goals per game, showcasing his ability to find the scoring opportunities and convert them into majors. Facing off against St Kilda, a team he's historically performed well against with an average of 1.7 goals in their recent matchups, Rankine is poised to continue his scoring streak. His impressive 52.0% goal accuracy at home, coupled with his consistent shot creation with an average of 3 shots at goal per game, makes him a promising bet for Over 0.5 goals in this clash. With Rankine's hot hand and St Kilda's vulnerabilities, backing him to snag at least one goal seems like a smart play for footy punters.

Luke Pedlar (Adelaide Crows) Over 0.5 Goals (-217)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing Luke Pedlar to snag over 0.5 goals in the upcoming Adelaide Crows vs. St Kilda Saints clash, the numbers paint a promising picture. Over his last 5 home games, Pedlar has been finding the big sticks consistently, averaging 1 goal per game. His impressive 55.0% goal accuracy and the fact that he's been involved in the score nearly 2 times per game make him a potent attacking threat. Against the Saints, he's been even more prolific, averaging 2 goals per game in their recent encounters. With a solid track record of hitting the scoreboard and facing a favorable matchup, Pedlar looks primed to keep the goal umpire busy and deliver for the Crows on home turf.

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
3
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult
18 Apr 26 Total Points Under 177.5 ✗ MISS
18 Apr 26 Total Points Under 178.5 ✗ MISS
18 Apr 26 Moneyline Adelaide Crows ✓ HIT

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for St Kilda Saints vs Adelaide Crows in the AFL. The most recent or upcoming game is scheduled for Saturday 18 April 2026 at Adelaide Oval. The model has generated 7 game picks and 18 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your AFL betting strategy for this matchup.

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