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The latest Bet Better model pick for Liam Ryan is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On the Goals market the model assigns a model win probability of 95%, versus the book's implied 87%, for a model edge of +8.1%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 5, 9:32AM UTC
AFL

Liam Ryan

St Kilda

+8.1% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Goals Over 0.5 -667 (1.15)
+8.1% Edge
Carlton Blues @ St Kilda Saints
Marvel Stadium, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sun 9 Aug, 9:20AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 18°C (Apr 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
95.1%
Implied Probability
87.0%
Model Edge
+8.1%
Predicted Value
1.8 Goals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals95.1%87.0%1.05+8.1%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games1/3
Last 5 games1/5
Last 10 games3/10

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AI Analysis

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Liam Ryan (St Kilda) Over 0.5 Goals (-667)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Liam Ryan has been on an absolute tear at home, snagging an impressive average of 2.4 goals in his last five games at Marvel Stadium. With a solid goal accuracy of 60.3% and consistently getting involved in scoring plays, Ryan is a scoring machine. He's not just a goal kicker; he's a playmaker too, averaging 4.2 score involvements per game. Facing Carlton, a team he's historically performed well against, Ryan's goal-scoring prowess is set to shine. Additionally, riding an eight-game hit streak at home and boasting a perfect record in his last five outings overall, Ryan is in red-hot form. Backing him to kick at least one goal in this matchup is a smart bet, given his recent dominance and the historical numbers in his favor. Expect Ryan to split the middle and deliver for the Saints on Sunday.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

1 market live
Goalsvs Carlton BluesO 0.5 -667
90%hit L10 O 0.5
1.6avg goals L5
Home2.4vs Carlton1.2Season best3
O 0.590%
O 1.560%
O 2.530%
O 3.520%
O 4.520%
O 5.510%
Game log vs line (O 0.5)4 / 10 hit
0001202100

Liam Ryan has gone over 0.5 goals in 9 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 1.6 goals, best 3). Current line: Over 0.5 at -667.

DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
7.2avg disposals L5
Home6.8vs Carlton12.6Season best21
O 9.530%
O 10.520%
O 11.510%
Game log vs line (O 9.5)avg 14.1 · hi 21 · lo 10
11191413211210131018

Liam Ryan has gone over 9.5 disposals in 3 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 7.2 disposals, best 21).

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
01 Aug 26 Sydney Swans @ St Kilda Saints Goals 0.5 Over -588 ✓ HIT
16 Jul 26 St Kilda Saints @ Geelong Cats Goals 0.5 Over -769 ✓ HIT

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About This Player

Liam Ryan (St Kilda) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Liam Ryan is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +8.1% on this pick. Their next game is Carlton Blues vs St Kilda Saints on Sunday 9 August at Marvel Stadium, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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