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The latest Bet Better model pick for Liam Ryan is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On the Goals market the model assigns a model win probability of 95%, versus the book's implied 88%, for a model edge of +6.6%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 16, 8:10AM UTC
AFL

Liam Ryan

St Kilda

+6.6% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Goals Over 0.5 -769 (1.13)
+6.6% Edge
St Kilda Saints @ Geelong Cats
GMHBA Stadium, Geelong, VIC · Outdoor
Thu 16 Jul, 9:30AM
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Model Probability
95.1%
Implied Probability
88.5%
Model Edge
+6.6%
Predicted Value
1.8 Goals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals95.1%—88.5%1.05+6.6%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games0/3
Last 5 games2/5
Last 10 games3/10

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AI Analysis

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Liam Ryan (St Kilda) Over 0.5 Goals (-769)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a player to snag a goal, Liam Ryan stands out like a shining beacon under the Thursday night lights. With an average of 2 goals over his last 5 away games, he's been on fire, making the opposition's defenders sweat profusely. Ryan's sharpshooting has been on point too, boasting a 58.0% goal accuracy in those matches. His ability to impact the scoreboard is undeniable, with 5.4 score involvements per game showing he's not just a goal-kicker but a playmaker too. Facing Geelong, where he's averaged a goal per game in recent matchups, Ryan's form and consistency make him a prime candidate to split the middle and secure that crucial goal to get us over that 0.5 line. Bet on Ryan to light up the scoreboard once again.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 3 of last 3(100%)

Betting angles

1 market live
Goalsvs Geelong CatsO 0.5 -714+7.3% edge
90%hit L10 O 0.5
3avg goals L5
Away2vs Geelong Cats1Season best3
O 0.590%
O 1.560%
O 2.540%
O 3.520%
O 4.520%
O 5.510%
Game log vs line (O 0.5)4 / 10 hit
0001202100

Liam Ryan has gone over 0.5 goals in 9 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 3 goals, best 3). Current line: Over 0.5 at -714, model edge +7.3%.

DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
8.4avg disposals L5
Away7.6vs Geelong Cats11.5Season best21
O 9.530%
O 10.530%
O 11.510%
Game log vs line (O 9.5)avg 14.1 · hi 21 · lo 10
11191413211210131018

Liam Ryan has gone over 9.5 disposals in 3 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 8.4 disposals, best 21).

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
18 Apr 26 St Kilda Saints @ Adelaide Crows Goals 0.5 Over -244 ✓ HIT
12 Apr 26 St Kilda Saints @ Port Adelaide Power Goals 0.5 Over -294 ✓ HIT
28 Mar 26 Brisbane Lions @ St Kilda Saints Goals 0.5 Over -333 ✓ HIT

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About This Player

Liam Ryan (St Kilda) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Liam Ryan is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +6.6% on this pick. Their next game is St Kilda Saints vs Geelong Cats on Thursday 16 July at GMHBA Stadium, Geelong. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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