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Model picks & player props
Carlton Blues
VS
Adelaide Crows

Carlton Blues vs Adelaide Crows Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 30, 10:23PM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

AFL
Adelaide Oval, Adelaide
Outdoor
Thu 9 Apr 2026, 9:40AM
2
Game markets graded
18
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Over 168.5 Total Points -111

The model graded 20 markets for Carlton Blues vs Adelaide Crows (AFL) and this is the one it backs hardest — HIGH confidence. A $100 bet returns about $190 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Thu 9 Apr 2026, 9:40AM at Adelaide Oval.

Our confidenceHigh
Chance to win60.5%
The price says52.6%
Best price-111
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Total Points Over 168.5 High60% chance -111
Total Points Lean58% chance
Disposals × 11 props Highup to 97%
Goals × 7 props Highup to 98%
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%

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Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Total Points
Over
170.5
+ 1 more market
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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
OverTotal PointsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Blues

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Crows

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Carlton Blues vs Adelaide Crows: Wet or windy conditions tend to lower AFL scoring, though live conditions for this exact fixture aren't wired in here yet, and player availability isn't tracked for AFL on this page.
FactorThis fixture
Match conditionsWet weather slows AFL scoring and lifts the value of contested-ball sides, but live per-fixture conditions aren't joined to this page yet.

General rule: wet weather lowers AFL scoring and rewards contested-ball and defensive sides, while a late out among key forwards or midfielders reshapes a team's scoring spread.

Live per-fixture AFL conditions aren't joined to this page yet — the note above is a general conditions rule, not this exact game's forecast.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

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Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Nic Newman Carlton Disposals
James Peatling Adelaide Crows Disposals
George Hewett Carlton Disposals
Ben Keays Adelaide Crows Goals
Brodie Kemp Carlton Goals

+ 18 player props graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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Carlton Blues @ Adelaide Crows — what the model found

Our model graded 20 betting markets for Carlton Blues at Adelaide Crows — 2 on the game itself and 18 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

2
Game markets graded
18
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 20 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 19 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Carlton Blues vs Adelaide Crows — recent results

Adelaide Crows have won 3 of their last 5 games; Carlton Blues have won 0 of their last 0.

Adelaide Crows — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W157–101GWSHome
L88–112FREAway
W63–54RICHHome
W145–73ESSAway
L74–108COLLHome

Carlton Blues @ Adelaide Crows — model preview

Expert analysis and top betting picks for Adelaide Crows vs Carlton Blues. Includes analysis on key players like Jake Soligo. Discover AFL predictions, AFL game picks, betting preview, Adelaide Crows vs Carlton Blues stats and odds.

Jake Soligo (Adelaide Crows) Over 16.5 Disposals (-227)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a player prop bet in the AFL, Jake Soligo stands out as a prime candidate to surpass the 16.5 disposal line against Carlton at Adelaide Oval. Soligo's recent form at home showcases his consistency, averaging 16 disposals in the last five games, including an impressive 9.6 kicks and 6.4 handballs per match. His ability to cover the ground is evident, with an average of 227.8 meters gained. Against Carlton specifically, Soligo has been even more impactful, averaging 17.2 disposals in their last encounters. With a solid hit rate at home and facing a favorable matchup, Soligo's knack for finding the ball and contributing to Adelaide's drive forward makes the Over 16.5 disposals a compelling bet for this upcoming clash.

🔒 The other 5 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Carlton Blues vs Adelaide Crows in the AFL. You may also see this matchup written as Blues vs Crows, or as Crows vs Blues. The most recent game between them was Thursday 9 April 2026 at Adelaide Oval. The model has generated 2 game picks and 18 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your AFL betting strategy for this matchup.

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