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Model picks & player props
Carlton Blues
VS
Adelaide Crows

Carlton Blues vs Adelaide Crows Picks & Predictions

Model updated Jul 21, 1:06PM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

AFL
Adelaide Oval, Adelaide
Outdoor
Thu 9 Apr 2026, 9:40AM
4
Game Picks
18
Player Props
Answer
Model lean: Over 168.5 (Total Points)
For Carlton Blues vs Adelaide Crows (AFL), model win probability 60.5%, fair odds 1.65, book price -111, model edge +7.9%, this is your free pick — unlock every other market and all player props with Pro. Tip-off Thu 9 Apr 2026, 9:40AM at Adelaide Oval.
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Game picks

+EV edge in green
Total Points
Over
168.5
+ 3 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
OverTotal PointsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal PointsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Blues

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Crows

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Carlton Blues vs Adelaide Crows: Wet or windy conditions tend to lower AFL scoring, though live conditions for this exact fixture aren't wired in here yet, and player availability isn't tracked for AFL on this page.
FactorThis fixture
Match conditionsWet weather slows AFL scoring and lifts the value of contested-ball sides, but live per-fixture conditions aren't joined to this page yet.

General rule: wet weather lowers AFL scoring and rewards contested-ball and defensive sides, while a late out among key forwards or midfielders reshapes a team's scoring spread.

Live per-fixture AFL conditions aren't joined to this page yet — the note above is a general conditions rule, not this exact game's forecast.

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Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Nic Newman Carlton Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
James Peatling Adelaide Crows Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
George Hewett Carlton Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Ben Keays Adelaide Crows Goals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Brodie Kemp Carlton Goals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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Carlton Blues @ Adelaide Crows — model preview

<p>Expert analysis and top betting picks for Adelaide Crows vs Carlton Blues. Includes analysis on key players like Jake Soligo. Discover AFL predictions, AFL game picks, betting preview, Adelaide Crows vs Carlton Blues stats and odds.</p>

Jake Soligo (Adelaide Crows) Over 16.5 Disposals (-227)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a player prop bet in the AFL, Jake Soligo stands out as a prime candidate to surpass the 16.5 disposal line against Carlton at Adelaide Oval. Soligo's recent form at home showcases his consistency, averaging 16 disposals in the last five games, including an impressive 9.6 kicks and 6.4 handballs per match. His ability to cover the ground is evident, with an average of 227.8 meters gained. Against Carlton specifically, Soligo has been even more impactful, averaging 17.2 disposals in their last encounters. With a solid hit rate at home and facing a favorable matchup, Soligo's knack for finding the ball and contributing to Adelaide's drive forward makes the Over 16.5 disposals a compelling bet for this upcoming clash.

Josh Rachele (Adelaide Crows) Over 0.5 Goals (-294)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a player to snag a goal, Josh Rachele stands out as a solid bet for the Adelaide Crows in their clash against Carlton Blues. Looking at his recent form, Rachele has been on fire, averaging 1.6 goals in his last five home games, including a steady 1.5 goals against Carlton specifically. His accuracy is impressive, hitting the target 68.3% of the time. With a knack for finding space inside 50 and being involved in the scoring plays, he's been a key factor for the Crows. Add in his current hit streak of 3 at home and 5 overall, and it's clear why the data supports backing Rachele to continue his scoring ways and net at least one goal in this upcoming game.

Lachlan Cowan (Carlton) Over 11.5 Disposals (-286)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a player in the disposals market, you want someone who's as reliable as a seasoned ruckman at a center bounce. Lachlan Cowan of Carlton Blues fits that bill perfectly. In his last five away games, Cowan has been a midfield machine, averaging a slick 14 disposals per game. His ability to find space and distribute the footy efficiently (85.4% disposal efficiency) makes him a prime candidate to surpass the line set at 11.5 disposals against Adelaide Crows. Cowan's recent form is nothing short of impressive, with a stellar 11-game hit streak and a perfect 4 out of 4 hit rate in away games. His knack for winning contested possessions (3 per game) and covering ground with his kicks (9.8 per game) and metres gained (215 per game) showcases his influence on the game. So, when it's crunch time at Adelaide Oval, expect Cowan to be in the thick of the action, racking up the possessions and helping your bet snag an easy win.

Ben Keays (Adelaide Crows) Over 0.5 Goals (-294)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Alright, footy punters, let's talk Ben Keays for this Thursday's clash between Adelaide and Carlton at the Adelaide Oval. Keays might not be a household name yet, but his recent form demands attention. Despite averaging just 0.2 goals per game in his last five home matches, he's been a key playmaker for the Crows, involved in 3.2 scores on average. Facing Carlton, a team he's historically scored 2.7 goals against in his last 5 encounters, the stage is set for Keays to step up. With a Shots at Goal average of 1.6 in his last 5 home games, he's getting the opportunities. Considering his recent form and the matchup, taking the Over 0.5 goals for Ben Keays feels like a smart play with solid value. The data speaks for itself; Keays is primed to snag one through the big sticks in this one.

Adelaide Crows vs Carlton Blues : Over 168.5 Total Points (-111)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Alright footy punters, buckle up for an absolute cracker at the Adelaide Oval between the Adelaide Crows and the Carlton Blues. Recent form paints an intriguing picture for our 'Over 168.5' bet. The Crows have been firing at home, averaging 66.2 points in their last 5 games at Adelaide Oval. With an average of 20.2 shots at goal and 46 inside 50s, they're creating ample scoring opportunities. Plus, they've been hitting an average of 10.2 target goals, showcasing their attacking prowess. On the flip side, the Blues have been leaky on the road, conceding 91.4 points per game away. Their defense has been under pressure, allowing an average of 49.4 inside 50s and 22.4 shots at goal. Offensively, they've been solid but vulnerable, averaging 72.8 points. With the Crows buzzing in front of their faithful fans and the Blues struggling to contain opposition attacks, expect the scoreboard to tick over frequently. This matchup screams goals, making the 'Over' a tantalizing prospect for footy punters looking for some high-scoring action.

Jake Soligo (Adelaide Crows) Over 15.5 Disposals (-333)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a player prop bet, you want reliability and impact, and Jake Soligo of the Adelaide Crows brings both to the table. In his last five home games, Soligo has been a midfield maestro, consistently racking up an average of 16 disposals per match. Against Carlton, he's even more formidable, averaging 17.2 disposals in their last encounters. Soligo's recent form is solid, boasting a 69.3% disposal efficiency and a hefty average of 228.2 meters gained per game. With a line set at 15.5 disposals, Soligo's ability to find the ball in contested situations (6.6 avg) and spread it effectively through kicks (9.6 avg) and handballs (6.4 avg) makes him a prime candidate to surpass this mark when the Blues come knocking at the Adelaide Oval.

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
2
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult
09 Apr 26 Total Points Over 168.5 ✓ HIT
09 Apr 26 Total Points Over 170.5 ✓ HIT

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Carlton Blues vs Adelaide Crows in the AFL. The most recent or upcoming game is scheduled for Thursday 9 April 2026 at Adelaide Oval. The model has generated 4 game picks and 18 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your AFL betting strategy for this matchup.

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