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The latest Bet Better model pick for Nic Newman is Over 21.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 76%, versus the book's implied 67%, for a model edge of +9.2%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 24, 3:03AM UTC
AFL

Nic Newman

Carlton

+9.2% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 21.5 -204 (1.49)
+9.2% Edge
Collingwood Magpies @ Carlton Blues
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Thu 16 Apr, 9:30AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
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Model Probability
76.3%
Implied Probability
67.1%
Model Edge
+9.2%
Predicted Value
25.1 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals76.3%—67.1%1.31+9.2%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games1/3
Last 5 games2/5
Last 10 games4/10

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AI Analysis

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Nic Newman (Carlton) Over 21.5 Disposals (-204)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Nic Newman, the poised playmaker for Carlton, is primed to shine in their clash against Collingwood at the MCG. Newman's recent form at home showcases his consistency, averaging a solid 24 disposals per game, exceeding the 21.5 line. His ability to find space and create opportunities is evident in his 87.4% disposal efficiency and impressive 556.2 metres gained over the last five home games. Facing Collingwood, Newman has historically elevated his game, with an average of 25.5 disposals in their past encounters. With a model prediction of 25.1 disposals and a 9.2% edge, backing Newman to surpass the 21.5 mark is a smart play for punters looking to capitalize on his reliability and impact in the midfield battle.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
23.2avg disposals L5
Home24.6vs Gold Coast SUNS24.2Season best35
O 21.570%
O 22.540%
O 23.530%
O 24.530%
O 25.510%
O 26.510%
Game log vs line (O 23.5)avg 25.1 · hi 35 · lo 18
28182119203427253524

Nic Newman has gone over 23.5 disposals in 3 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 23.2 disposals, best 35).

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
16 Apr 26 Collingwood Magpies @ Carlton Blues Disposals 21.5 Over -204 ✓ HIT
16 Apr 26 Collingwood Magpies @ Carlton Blues Disposals 20.5 Over -286 ✓ HIT
16 Apr 26 Collingwood Magpies @ Carlton Blues Disposals 19.5 Over -400 ✓ HIT
16 Apr 26 Collingwood Magpies @ Carlton Blues Disposals — — — Pending
16 Apr 26 Collingwood Magpies @ Carlton Blues Disposals — — — Pending
09 Apr 26 Carlton Blues @ Adelaide Crows Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Nic Newman (Carlton) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Nic Newman is Over 21.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +9.2% on this pick. Their next game is Collingwood Magpies vs Carlton Blues on Thursday 16 April at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

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