Here are our AFL picks for Thursday 27 August 2026. Our model likes 6 bets here. The one it likes most is Fremantle Dockers vs Hawthorn Hawks: Fremantle Dockers -16.5, priced at -111 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Looking for AFL same-game multi tips this round? Here are the 3 multis our model likes most, built only from legs where our number beats the bookmaker's price.
Fremantle Dockers vs Hawthorn Hawks: Fremantle Dockers -16.5 (-111)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Alright, footy fans, let's dive into this clash between the Fremantle Dockers and the Hawthorn Hawks at Optus Stadium. The Dockers are riding high on a streak of dominating performances, especially at home. In their last five home games, they've been running rampant, averaging a whopping 94.8 points for and holding opponents to just 52.4 points against. Their inside 50s and shots at goal numbers are impressive, showcasing their attacking prowess. On the flip side, the Hawks have been decent on the road but have struggled to contain opposition offenses, conceding 69 points on average in their last five away games. With the Dockers' recent form and the Hawks' vulnerability in defense, backing Fremantle to cover the -16.5 spread seems like a smart play. Expect the Dockers to snag a comfortable win and secure that line for the punters.
Fremantle Dockers vs Hawthorn Hawks: Hawthorn Hawks 16.5 (-111)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Alright, footy fans, let's dive into why backing the Hawthorn Hawks at +16.5 could be the savvy play when they clash with the Fremantle Dockers at Optus Stadium. The Hawks have been soaring on the road lately, boasting a solid average margin of 29.4 in their last five away games. Their offensive prowess has been on full display, notching an impressive 98.4 points per game during this stretch. On the other hand, the Dockers have shown some defensive vulnerabilities at home, conceding an average of 52.4 points against and allowing an average of 31.8 shots at goal in their last five games at Optus Stadium. With the Hawks' ability to generate scoring opportunities with an average of 57.6 inside 50s per game, they could keep this matchup much tighter than the spread suggests. So, don't be surprised if the Hawks keep it close and cover the spread against the Dockers.
Fremantle Dockers vs Hawthorn Hawks: Hawthorn Hawks Win (+196)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Mate, let's break down why backing the Hawthorn Hawks to snag the win against the Fremantle Dockers at Optus Stadium is a savvy move. The Hawks have been flying high on the road lately, averaging a solid 29.4-point margin in their last five away games. Their offensive prowess is evident, notching up an average of 98.4 points per game while keeping a tight ship defensively, conceding just 69 points on average. With their dominance in clearances, contested possessions, and inside 50s, Hawthorn's attacking opportunities look promising. On the other hand, Fremantle's recent home form has been shaky, with an average margin of 42.4 points against them. So, with the Hawks' strong away record and Fremantle's vulnerabilities at home, putting your money on Hawthorn to clinch this one could be a winning bet.
Lachlan Cowan (Carlton) Over 10.5 Disposals (-769)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Lachlan Cowan, the man of the hour for the Carlton Blues, is set to make waves in the upcoming clash against the Melbourne Demons. With a recent streak of 8 hits in away games and an impressive overall hit rate of 15 out of 15, Cowan's on fire. His last 5 away games have seen him notch up an average of 16 disposals, comfortably exceeding the line of 10.5. Armed with a solid disposalefficiency of 75.1% and a keen eye for interceptions, Cowan's ability to find space and create opportunities is unmatched. Facing Melbourne, where he's averaged 12 disposals in his last 5 matchups, Cowan is poised to dominate the midfield and surpass the 10.5 disposal mark with ease. Betting on Cowan to go over 10.5 disposals is not just a gamble; it's a calculated move backed by his stellar form and undeniable impact on the field.
Jack Viney (Melbourne) Over 15.5 Disposals (-769)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Jack Viney, the fearless midfield warrior for the Melbourne Demons, is primed to shine against the Carlton Blues at the iconic MCG. Over his last five home games, Viney has been a ball magnet, averaging a hefty 21 disposals. His recent form against Carlton has been stellar too, with an average of 25.7 disposals in their last five encounters. Viney's consistency is evident, boasting a current hit streak of 8 at home and a perfect 14/14 hit rate overall. With his gritty contested possessions, reliable disposal efficiency at 64.5%, and a knack for gaining significant meters, Viney is set to dominate the midfield once again. Expect him to easily surpass the 15.5 disposals line, making this prop bet a solid play for those looking to snag some easy wins.
Jeremy Howe (Collingwood) Over 11.5 Disposals (-588)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Alright, footy punters, let's talk Jeremy Howe. The Collingwood Magpies' defender has been an absolute magnet for the footy, averaging a whopping 18.8 disposals in his last five away games. Facing the Western Bulldogs, who he's historically tallied an average of 19 disposals against, Howe seems poised to continue his stellar form. His recent stats paint a picture of consistency and impact. With an impressive disposal efficiency of 86.4% and a knack for intercepting (averaging 7.4 intercepts in away games), Howe is not just a ball magnet but a reliable distributor and defensive pillar. Additionally, his current hot streak of 8 consecutive away games hitting the over on disposals indicates a player in fine touch. For this matchup at the iconic MCG, backing Howe to surpass 11.5 disposals seems like a smart play given his recent form and the historical numbers against the Bulldogs. Expect Howe to be in the thick of the action, racking up possessions as he anchors the Magpies' backline.
That is the model's read on today's AFL card. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.
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