Here are our AFL picks for Thursday 27 August 2026. Our model likes 6 bets here. The one it likes most is Fremantle Dockers vs Hawthorn Hawks: Fremantle Dockers -16.5, priced at -111 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Looking for AFL same-game multi tips this round? Here are the 3 multis our model likes most, built only from legs where our number beats the bookmaker's price.

Fremantle Dockers vs Hawthorn Hawks: Fremantle Dockers -16.5 (-111)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Alright, footy fanatics, let's dive into the upcoming clash between the Fremantle Dockers and the Hawthorn Hawks at Optus Stadium. The Dockers are riding high on a wave of dominance, especially at home, where they've been a force to be reckoned with. Over their last five home games, Fremantle has been putting on an offensive clinic, averaging a whopping 94.8 points per game while keeping their opponents to a meager 52.4 points. Their inside 50s and shots on goal numbers are equally impressive, showing a relentless attacking style that's hard to contain. On the flip side, the Hawks have been decent on the road but have struggled to match Fremantle's offensive firepower. With the Dockers boasting an average winning margin of 42.4 points at home, taking them at -16.5 seems like a smart play considering their recent form and scoring prowess. Expect Fremantle to snag a comfortable victory and cover the spread with ease.

Fremantle Dockers vs Hawthorn Hawks: Hawthorn Hawks 16.5 (-111)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Alright, footy fans, let's break down why backing the Hawthorn Hawks at +16.5 in their clash against the Fremantle Dockers could be a savvy move. Recent form paints an intriguing picture. The Hawks have been flying high, averaging a solid 98.4 points in their last five away games, while holding opponents to 69 points on average. Their attacking prowess, with an average of 31.2 shotsatgoal per game, could trouble the Dockers' defense. On the flip side, Fremantle has struggled defensively at home, conceding an average of 52.4 points in their last five games at Optus Stadium. Their margin average of 42.4 in these games suggests they've been leaking goals. With the Hawks' scoring ability and the Dockers' defensive vulnerabilities, Hawthorn's +16.5 line looks appealing in this matchup. Expect a close contest with the Hawks having the firepower to keep it tight.

Fremantle Dockers vs Hawthorn Hawks: Hawthorn Hawks Win (+196)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When the Hawthorn Hawks swoop into Optus Stadium to take on the Fremantle Dockers, the stats paint a compelling picture. Over their last five away games, the Hawks have been soaring high, averaging 98.4 points for and conceding just 69 points against. Their prowess in clearances (38.8) and contested possessions (137.4) gives them a strong midfield foundation to dominate the game. On the other hand, the Dockers have struggled at home, with an average margin of 42.4 points against and only 94.8 points for. With Hawthorn's efficient ball movement, solid defense, and ability to convert shots at goal, backing the Hawks to snag the win seems like a savvy play in this clash.

Lachlan Cowan (Carlton) Over 10.5 Disposals (-769)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to Lachlan Cowan hitting the Over 10.5 disposals mark in the upcoming clash against the Melbourne Demons, the stats paint a compelling picture. Over his last five away games, Cowan has been a midfield maestro, averaging a solid 16 disposals per match. His recent form screams consistency, with a stellar 8-game hit streak on the road, showcasing his ability to find the ball regardless of the venue. Against the Demons in particular, he's been averaging 12 disposals over his last five encounters, indicating a familiarity with the opponent's playing style. Cowan's knack for intercepts and meters gained further solidify his impact on the game. With an overall hit rate of 15 out of 15 and a model prediction of 16.1, backing Cowan to go over 10.5 disposals seems like a safe bet with a high likelihood of success.

Tom Sparrow (Melbourne) Over 9.5 player_kicks_over (-769)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a player bet, you want a reliable midfielder who can consistently impact the game. Enter Tom Sparrow, set to shine at the MCG for the Melbourne Demons against Carlton Blues. Sparrow's model prediction sits at a solid 14.8 kicks, showing his penchant for getting involved around the ground. With a margin of 2.6%, the numbers are in our favor for Sparrow to surpass the line of 9.5 kicks. As a pivotal piece in Melbourne's midfield puzzle, Sparrow thrives on home turf, making him a prime candidate to rack up possessions and drive his team forward. Expect Sparrow to be in the thick of the action, feeding off the home crowd energy to deliver a kicking performance that exceeds expectations.

Jeremy Howe (Collingwood) Over 11.5 Disposals (-588)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Let's talk about Jeremy Howe, the Magpies' defensive stalwart, heading into the clash with the Bulldogs at the MCG. Howe has been a consistent force on the field, averaging a solid 18.8 disposals in his last 5 away games. His recent form showcases his ability to read the play with an average of 7.4 intercepts, making life difficult for opposition forwards. Facing the Bulldogs, a team he's historically performed well against with a 19 disposal average, Howe is poised to have a big impact. With his recent disposals trend showing no signs of slowing down and his impressive disposal efficiency at 86.4%, backing Howe to surpass 11.5 disposals seems like a smart bet. Expect him to be in the thick of the action, racking up possessions as he anchors Collingwood's backline.

That is the model's read on today's AFL card. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

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