Here are our AFL picks for Thursday 20 August 2026. Our model likes 12 bets here. The one it likes most is Adelaide Crows vs Greater Western Sydney Giants: Adelaide Crows -6.5 spreads_q2, priced at -112 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Looking for AFL same-game multi tips this round? Here are the 4 multis our model likes most, built only from legs where our number beats the bookmaker's price.
The Adelaide Crows are looking like a safe bet at -6.5 in the Spreads Q2 market against the Greater Western Sydney Giants. The Crows have been formidable at Adelaide Oval, boasting a solid 15.4 average margin in their last five home games. Their offensive prowess shines through, averaging 82.2 points with 52.2 inside 50s and 24.8 shots at goal per game. On the flip side, the Giants have been struggling on the road, only managing a 7.8 average margin in their last five away games. Coupled with their leaky defense conceding 76.4 points on average, the Crows are poised to exploit these weaknesses and snag a comfortable victory. With the home advantage and a potent attacking game, backing the Adelaide Crows to cover the spread seems like a smart play for this matchup.
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
The Adelaide Crows are poised to dominate the Greater Western Sydney Giants in this clash at Adelaide Oval. The Crows have been on a tear at home, boasting an average margin of 15.4 points in their last five home games. Their offensive firepower has been impressive, averaging 82.2 points per game during this stretch. On the flip side, the Giants have struggled on the road, with a meager average margin of 7.8 points in their last five away games. Their defense has been leaky, conceding an average of 76.4 points per game. With the Crows' potent attack and solid home form, expect them to cover the -6.5 spread comfortably and snag another victory in front of their home crowd.
Adelaide Crows vs Greater Western Sydney Giants: Adelaide Crows -6.5 spreads_q3 (-116)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
When it comes to the Adelaide Crows hosting the Greater Western Sydney Giants at the Adelaide Oval, the stats paint a clear picture. The Crows have been flying high at home, averaging a solid 15.4-point margin in their last five games at the Adelaide Oval. Their offensive firepower is evident, with an average of 82.2 points scored per game during this period. On the defensive end, they've been stingy, allowing just 66.8 points on average. Facing the Giants, who have struggled on the road with a lower average margin of 7.8 points, the Crows seem poised to cover the -6.5 spread in the third quarter. With their strong home form and scoring prowess, backing the Crows to dominate the third quarter seems like a smart play.
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Alright footy fans, let's break down why the Under 41.5 for Carlton Blues in the first half against Fremantle Dockers at Marvel Stadium is looking like a savvy bet. The Blues have been solid on their home turf, averaging 55.2 Inside50s and 30.4 Shotsatgoal in their last five games. However, their conversion rate hasn't been as sharp, averaging 15 Target Goals and 102.4 Points For overall. Facing Fremantle, who have been stingy on defense, allowing just 70.6 points on average, the Blues might find it tough to hit their usual scoring heights. With the Dockers clamping down defensively, the Blues could struggle to break through and hit the Over on this line. Expect a tight first half battle with both teams fighting for every possession, making the Under 41.5 a compelling play for this matchup.
Carlton Blues vs Fremantle Dockers: Under 20.5 team_totals_q1 (-101)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Alright, footy fans, let's dissect this clash between the Carlton Blues and the Fremantle Dockers at Marvel Stadium. The Blues have been aiming true lately, averaging a solid 15 target goals over their last five games, with an impressive 55.2 inside 50s on average. However, their shooting boots have been a tad shaky, managing just 30.4 shots at goal per game in their recent outings. On the flip side, the Dockers have been stingy on defense, conceding an average of only 79.6 points away from home and a mere 70.6 overall. With Carlton's scoring output hovering around the 19.3 mark, coupled with Fremantle's defensive grit, hitting the under on the Blues' 20.5 total points in the first quarter seems like a savvy play here. The stage is set for a tight, low-scoring opening stanza in Melbourne.
Carlton Blues vs Fremantle Dockers: Carlton Blues Win (+140)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Let's dive into the clash between the Carlton Blues and the Fremantle Dockers at Marvel Stadium. The Blues have been making waves at home, boasting an impressive average margin of 17.2 points in their last five games. Their scoring prowess is evident, averaging 99.6 points per match while maintaining tight defense, conceding only 80.8 points on average. With a dominant display in clearances (41.6) and contested possessions (139) at home, Carlton's midfield is firing on all cylinders. On the flip side, the Dockers have struggled on the road, with an average margin of 29.4 against them in their last five away games. While they have been solid defensively, allowing just 70.6 points per game, their scoring output pales in comparison to the Blues, averaging 100 points. Expect Carlton's home advantage and scoring potency to give them the edge in this matchup.
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Alright, footy fans, let's dive into why backing the Gold Coast Suns at +2.5 in the Q2 spread against the St Kilda Saints could be a savvy move. The Suns have been showing some resilience on the road lately, with an average margin of -25.2 in their last five away games. In contrast, the Saints have been struggling to protect their turf, averaging a -16.8 margin in their recent home fixtures. When it comes to scoring, the Suns might have the edge, averaging 58.6 points for in their last five games compared to the Saints' 61.4. With Gold Coast hungry for a win and St Kilda looking shaky at home, this spread bet on the Suns could be a golden opportunity to snag a win.
St Kilda Saints vs Gold Coast Suns: Gold Coast Suns 2.5 spreads_q3 (-115)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Alright, footy fans, let's dive into why backing the Gold Coast Suns at +2.5 in the Q3 spread against St Kilda Saints is a smart move. The Suns, despite their recent away game struggles, have been putting up a fight, averaging 69.8 points for in their last 5 games. On the flip side, St Kilda has been shaky at home, averaging a mere 61.4 points for. When it comes to defensive strength, the Suns have been conceding an average of 83.8 points away, whilst the Saints have allowed 78.2 points at home. With the Suns boasting a slightly better average margin in their last 5 overall games compared to the Saints, this matchup could see the Suns snagging a close victory or keeping it tight into the third quarter. So, trust the numbers and consider backing the Suns to shine bright in this clash at Marvel Stadium.
St Kilda Saints vs Gold Coast Suns: Gold Coast Suns 2.5 spreads_q4 (-115)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Alright, footy fans, let's dive into why backing the Gold Coast Suns at +2.5 in the fourth-quarter spread against St Kilda Saints could be a shrewd play. The Suns have been showing grit on the road, with an average fourth-quarter margin of -25.2 in their last five away games. Despite facing tough defenses, they've managed to bag an average of 58.6 points per game in that stretch. Meanwhile, St Kilda has struggled to keep their home turf secure, conceding an average of 78.2 points at Marvel Stadium. Combine that with the Suns' hunger for goals, averaging 10.4 target goals in their recent overall games, and you've got a recipe for a close battle where Gold Coast could snag the win, even if it's a narrow one.
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
The clash between the Melbourne Demons and the Western Bulldogs at the iconic MCG promises to be a fierce battle on the footy field. While the Demons have been solid at home with an average margin of 4 points in their last five games, the Western Bulldogs have shown resilience on the road, with a narrow average margin of -5.4. When it comes to scoring, Melbourne has been potent in front of the big sticks, averaging 94.6 points per game at home, while the Bulldogs have struggled slightly, averaging 65.4 points away. With the Bulldogs boasting a strong defense, conceding only 70.8 points per game on the road, they could keep this matchup tighter than the spread suggests. Backing the Western Bulldogs at +16.5 in the spread market could offer value given their recent form and defensive prowess.
Melbourne Demons vs Western Bulldogs: Under 25.5 team_totals_q1 (-122)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Alright footy punters, let's dive into why backing the Melbourne Demons to go 'Under 25.5' in the Team Totals Q1 market against the Western Bulldogs is a savvy move. The Demons have been a force at the MCG, consistently generating Inside50s and Shotsatgoal. However, their recent trend of averaging 13.8 Target Goals in their last five home games is slightly below the line set at 25.5 for Q1. Despite their overall high scoring prowess, facing the Bulldogs, who boast a stingy defense allowing just 70.8 Points Against in their last five away games and 72.6 overall, could lead to a tighter opening quarter for Melbourne. Considering the Demons' recent Target Goals and the Bulldogs' solid defensive record, the Under looks like a promising play here. This matchup sets the stage for a gritty, hard-fought start, making the Under 25.5 an intriguing value proposition.
Melbourne Demons vs Western Bulldogs: Melbourne Demons -16.5 (-111)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Alright footy punters, let's dissect this matchup between the Melbourne Demons and the Western Bulldogs at the iconic MCG. The Demons have been on a tear lately, especially at home, where they've been flexing their scoring muscles. In their last five home games, they've been averaging a solid 94.6 points for, showing their attacking prowess. With an average of 58.8 inside 50s per game, they're constantly pressuring their opponents and creating scoring opportunities. On the flip side, the Bulldogs have struggled on the road, averaging just 65.4 points for in their last five away games. Their defense has also been leaky, conceding an average of 70.8 points against. With the Demons boasting a strong average margin of 17.4 in their recent games, a -16.5 line seems very achievable for them against the Bulldogs. Back the Demons to cover the spread and snag a win at home.
That is the model's read on today's AFL card. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.