Here are our AFL picks for Thursday 20 August 2026. Our model likes 12 bets here. The one it likes most is Adelaide Crows vs Greater Western Sydney Giants: Under 25.5 team_totals_q1, priced at -116 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Looking for AFL same-game multi tips this round? Here are the 4 multis our model likes most, built only from legs where our number beats the bookmaker's price.
Looking at the Adelaide Crows hosting the Greater Western Sydney Giants at the Adelaide Oval, the smart money seems to lean towards the under for the Crows in the first quarter. The Crows have been solid at home, averaging just over 82 points in their last five home games. However, with their average first-quarter score hovering around 18.8 points, they might struggle to hit the 25.5 line against a disciplined Giants defense. The Giants have been stingy on the road, conceding only 76.4 points per game away from home. With the Crows' recent trend of starting games a bit slow, the under looks like a favorable play here. Expect both teams to come out firing, but the Crows may find it tough to snag a big first-quarter tally.
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
The Adelaide Crows hosting the Greater Western Sydney Giants at the Adelaide Oval promises a gripping clash. Recent form favors the Crows, boasting an impressive average of 15.4 points margin in their last five home games. Their offensive prowess, averaging 82.2 points per game at home, may trouble the Giants' defense, who concede an average of 76.4 points on the road. With the Crows also dominating the inside 50s and shots on goal stats, the -6.5 spread seems within reach. On the flip side, the Giants' recent away form shows vulnerabilities, averaging a narrow 7.8 points margin. Given these trends, backing the Adelaide Crows to cover the spread in the second quarter appears to be a shrewd move for footy punters.
Adelaide Crows vs Greater Western Sydney Giants: Adelaide Crows -6.5 spreads_q4 (-112)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Alright, footy fans, let's break down why backing the Adelaide Crows at -6.5 in the fourth quarter spread against the Greater Western Sydney Giants could be a smart play. The Crows have been flying high at home, boasting an average margin of 15.4 points over their last five games at Adelaide Oval. Their offensive prowess is evident, averaging 82.2 points for and 24.8 shots at goal during this stretch. In contrast, the Giants have been struggling on the road, with a modest average margin of 7.8 points in their last five away games. They've also been leaky at the back, conceding an average of 76.4 points. With Adelaide's strong home form and Greater Western Sydney's road woes, the Crows look poised to snag a convincing win by more than a goal and a half. Time to back the boys from Adelaide to split the middle and cover that -6.5 spread!
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
The stage is set at Marvel Stadium as the Carlton Blues brace to clash with the Fremantle Dockers in what promises to be a gritty showdown. The Blues, firing on all cylinders lately, have been a force to be reckoned with, consistently breaching opponents' defenses and nailing an average of 15 goals per game in their last five matchups. However, facing a resolute Fremantle side that boasts a stingy defense, conceding a mere 70.6 points on average in their recent games, the Blues might find it tough to hit their usual scoring heights. With the Dockers looking to tighten the screws defensively and the Blues facing a formidable challenge, the under 41.5 on the Team Totals H1 market for Carlton seems like a shrewd bet. It's a clash where every snagged goal will be hard-fought, and the scoreboard might not light up as brightly as expected.
Carlton Blues vs Fremantle Dockers: Under 20.5 team_totals_q1 (-106)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Alright, footy fans, let's dive into the upcoming clash between the Carlton Blues and the Fremantle Dockers at Marvel Stadium. When it comes to the Blues' recent form, they've been firing on all cylinders, averaging over 100 points per game in their last five outings. However, facing the Dockers might not be a walk in the park. Fremantle has been rock solid defensively, conceding an average of just 70.6 points overall and a mere 79.6 points in their last five away games. Considering Carlton's average of 102.4 points scored in their recent matches and Fremantle's stingy defense, the Under 20.5 for the Blues in the first quarter looks like a shrewd play. With the Dockers' ability to limit scoring opportunities and the Blues potentially facing some early defensive pressure, this bet could be a smart move to snag a win.
Carlton Blues vs Fremantle Dockers: Carlton Blues Win (+144)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
The Carlton Blues are looking primed for a big performance at Marvel Stadium against the Fremantle Dockers. Over their last five home games, the Blues have been dominating, averaging 99.6 points for and holding their opponents to just 82.4 points against. Their midfield is firing on all cylinders, with an average of 41.6 total clearances and 139 contested possessions per game. On the other hand, Fremantle has struggled on the road, giving up an average of 79.6 points while only managing 29.2 shots at goal per game. With the Blues boasting a higher scoring average and stronger defensive record at home, the odds are in their favor to snag a win in this matchup.
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Alright, footy fans, let's break down why the under on St Kilda Saints' first-half team total of 48.5 is looking like a smart play against the Gold Coast Suns. When we look at the Saints' recent form, they've been solid but not prolific in front of the big sticks. Over their last five games, they've averaged around 11.2 target goals per match at home, scoring an average of 76.8 points. On the other hand, the Suns have been tightening up their defense, conceding an average of 95.2 points on the road and 92.6 overall. With the Saints' slightly below-average shots at goal and the Suns' improved defensive efforts, the under on St Kilda's first-half team total seems like a reasonable bet. Expect a hard-fought battle at Marvel Stadium with both teams locking horns in a low-scoring affair.
St Kilda Saints vs Gold Coast Suns: Under 24.5 team_totals_q1 (-115)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
When the St Kilda Saints clash with the Gold Coast Suns at Marvel Stadium, the stage is set for a defensive battle in the opening quarter. The Saints, averaging 11.2 target goals in their last five home games, face off against a Suns defense allowing just 92.6 points overall. St Kilda's offensive might, churning out an average of 51.4 inside50s and 26.6 shotsatgoal at home, meets the Suns' resilience, conceding 95.2 points on the road. With the Saints averaging 80.4 points overall and the Suns tightening their defense, this matchup points towards a low-scoring start. Expect both teams to lock horns early, resulting in a Q1 total below 24.5.
St Kilda Saints vs Gold Coast Suns: Gold Coast Suns 3.5 spreads_q4 (-110)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Alright, footy punters, let's dive into this intriguing clash between the St Kilda Saints and the Gold Coast Suns at Marvel Stadium. The Suns, despite their recent away woes, are showing signs of promise. In their last five outings, they’ve been a bit unlucky on the road, with an average losing margin of -36.6. However, they've been peppering the goals with 46 inside 50s per game, indicating they're creating opportunities. On the flip side, St Kilda's home form hasn't been convincing, averaging a margin of -13.2 in their last five at Marvel Stadium. Their defense has leaked 90 points on average, giving the Suns a chance to snag a few goals. With the Suns hungry for a win and the Saints struggling to keep their fortress intact, backing Gold Coast at +3.5 looks like a savvy play in the final quarter spread market. Time to ride the Suns' potential resurgence!
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
G'day footy punters! When the Melbourne Demons square off against the Western Bulldogs at the iconic MCG, the stats paint a clear picture for our betting insight. The Demons have been firing on all cylinders lately, boasting an impressive average of 108.6 points per game over their last five matches. However, facing a solid defensive unit like the Bulldogs, who have only conceded 72.6 points on average recently, might slow down Melbourne's scoring prowess. Moreover, the Bulldogs have been stingy on the road, allowing just 70.8 points against in their last five away games. With the line set at 48.5 for the Demons' team total, the under looks appealing given the Bulldogs' defensive resilience. So, expect a fierce battle on the field, but the under could be the savvy play here. Get ready to watch the goals being hard-earned this weekend!
Melbourne Demons vs Western Bulldogs: Western Bulldogs 16.5 (-112)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Alright, footy fans, let's break down why backing the Western Bulldogs at +16.5 in their clash against the Melbourne Demons is a savvy play. The Bulldogs might be the away team, but their recent form tells a compelling story. Over their last five away games, they've kept their opponents to an average of just 70.8 points while scoring an average of 65.4 points themselves. On the flip side, the Demons have shown a tendency to keep games tight at home, with a margin averaging just 4 points in their last five home games. However, the Bulldogs' defensive prowess and ability to restrict their opponents' scoring make them a strong contender to keep this game within the spread. With the Bulldogs' recent form and defensive grit, taking them at +16.5 looks like a smart move for footy punters looking for value in this matchup at the iconic MCG.
Melbourne Demons vs Western Bulldogs: Under 25.5 team_totals_q1 (-122)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Alright, footy fans, let's dive into the tactical trenches of this upcoming clash between the Melbourne Demons and the Western Bulldogs at the iconic MCG. When it comes to the Demons, recent form tells a tale of offensive prowess. Over their last 5 home games, they've been relentless, averaging a whopping 94.6 points per match, fueled by an impressive 58.8 Inside50s and 31.4 Shotsatgoal on average. However, facing off against the Western Bulldogs, a team with a stingy defense conceding just 70.8 points on the road lately, the Demons might find it tough to keep up their scoring spree. With the Bulldogs holding firm and allowing just 72.6 points on average overall, the Under 25.5 on Melbourne's Team Totals in Q1 looks like a savvy play. Expect a hard-fought battle early on, with both teams locking horns defensively in the opening quarter.
That is the model's read on today's AFL card. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.