AFL Multi Tips Saturday 09/26: 3-Leg Parlay & Predictions

Alex Pearce is shaping as a solid over play here, with the model projecting 10.9 disposals against a line of just 8.5 — an 18.2% edge against implied odds that only price him at 53.2% to clear the mark. That's meaningful value on a defender who's been consistently active with ball in hand. The form numbers back it up convincingly. Pearce is averaging 10.6 disposals across his last five home games, and specifically against Brisbane he's averaging 12.2 at home and 11.4 overall in his last five matchups — well clear of this line both ways. He's hit the over in three straight overall and 2 of his last 3 at home, carrying a 74% disposal efficiency and 5.4 intercepts per game that reflect genuine defensive involvement rather than garbage-time touches. With Brisbane likely to press forward and generate intercept opportunities, Pearce's role should keep him busy.

Oscar McDonald (Fremantle) Over 10.5 Disposals (-118)

Oscar McDonald is a compelling play here, with the model projecting 13.2 disposals against a line of 10.5 — a 2.7-disposal cushion that translates to an 18% edge over the implied 54.1% probability baked into the $1.85 price. The key driver is his home-ground form: across his last five home games, McDonald is averaging 15.4 disposals, clearing this line with room to spare at a 3/5 hit rate. His home splits are meaningfully stronger than his overall L5 average of 12.6, with kicks jumping from 9.0 overall to 11.4 at home and metres gained surging from 227 to 304 — signs of a defender who reads space well in familiar conditions. His intercept average of 6.0 at home also suggests he's consistently finding the ball off half-back. The 10.5 line looks like a number set on his weaker away performances. Back the home version.