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Today's AFL Picks & Predictions — Free Picks for Every Game

Every AFL game coming up, graded and ranked best first. All 1 are below, top pick free.

1 games coming up, and the first 1 picks are free

Best AFL bet today: Josh Dunkley Over 9.5 Kicks (Brisbane Lions) at -123, high confidence. Fremantle and Brisbane Lions are both in great form, making this game exciting. 1 game on the board.

The one we'd back first · Brisbane Lions v Fremantle Dockers
Josh Dunkley Over 9.5 Kicks (Brisbane Lions) -123
Our confidenceHigh
Chance to win62.1%
$50 returns$90.50
The rest of the boardfull reasoning on each game below
Brisbane Lions v Fremantle DockersBRI v FRE Josh Dunkley Over 9.5 Kicks (Brisbane Lions) High62% chance -123
Brisbane Lions v Fremantle DockersBRI v FRE Disposals 16.5 Lean48% chance
Brisbane Lions v Fremantle DockersBRI v FRE Disposals 20.5 Lean49% chance
Brisbane Lions v Fremantle DockersBRI v FRE Disposals 10.5 Lean49% chance
Brisbane Lions v Fremantle DockersBRI v FRE Disposals 9.5 High61% chance
Brisbane Lions v Fremantle DockersBRI v FRE Goals 0.5 Lean57% chance
Brisbane Lions v Fremantle DockersBRI v FRE Disposals 12.5 Lean54% chance
Brisbane Lions v Fremantle DockersBRI v FRE Disposals 13.5 Lean53% chance
Brisbane Lions v Fremantle DockersBRI v FRE Disposals 15.5 Lean54% chance
Brisbane Lions v Fremantle DockersBRI v FRE Handballs 7.5 High62% chance
Brisbane Lions v Fremantle DockersBRI v FRE Kicks 11.5 High64% chance
Brisbane Lions v Fremantle DockersBRI v FRE Disposals 15.5 Lean53% chance
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%
36 more picks on the board
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AFLBRI vs. FRE 2026-09-26 04:30
Full preview: Brisbane Lions at Fremantle Dockers →
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Josh Dunkley Over 9.5 Kicks (Brisbane Lions)
Chance to win 62.1%
The price says 55.2%
Best price -123

Fremantle Dockers vs Brisbane Lions: Josh Dunkley Over 9.5 Kicks (-123)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

Fremantle and Brisbane Lions are both in great form, making this game exciting. Brisbane has been scoring impressively, averaging nearly 50 points before half-time in their last 12 matches. Meanwhile, Fremantle has also been strong, winning 7 of their last 10 games. With both teams playing at a high level, it should be a competitive match. We're picking Josh Dunkley to get over 9.5 kicks because he's been playing well lately. There's a solid chance he can reach this number, especially with how often he gets involved in the game. The only worry is how tight the game might be, which could affect the number of kicks he gets. But overall, it feels like a good bet to make.

Jaspa Fletcher Disposals 16.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Josh Dunkley Disposals 20.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Oscar McDonald Disposals 10.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Noah Answerth Disposals 9.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Conor McKenna Goals 0.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Bruce Reville Disposals 12.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Cam Rayner Disposals 13.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Karl Worner Disposals 15.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Shai Bolton Handballs 7.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Jordan Clark Kicks 11.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Matthew Johnson Disposals 15.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Josh Treacy Goals 1.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Shai Bolton Disposals 19.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Karl Worner Kicks 9.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Jordan Clark Disposals 20.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Michael Frederick Goals 0.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Harris Andrews Disposals 10.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Brisbane Lions at Fremantle Dockers · Spread 9.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Kai Lohmann Disposals 10.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Logan Morris Goals 1.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Lachie Neale Handballs 11.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Darcy Wilmot Kicks 9.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Cam Rayner Goals 0.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Matthew Johnson Handballs 7.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Jaspa Fletcher Kicks 9.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Caleb Serong Handballs 9.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Brandon Walker Disposals 9.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Andrew Brayshaw Kicks 9.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Neil Erasmus Disposals 14.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Brisbane Lions at Fremantle Dockers · Spread Q2 2.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Brisbane Lions at Fremantle Dockers · Spread Q3 2.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Brisbane Lions at Fremantle Dockers · Spread Q4 2.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Eric Hipwood Goals 0.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Levi Ashcroft Disposals 14.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Kai Lohmann Goals 0.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Zac Bailey Disposals 18.5 Which side the model backs, and why · Pro
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Quick answer

What are AFL picks?

AFL picks are model-generated predictions for AFL betting markets including moneyline (winner), line (spread), totals and player props. Bet Better makes its picks with a model that works out how often each result happens, compares that to the bookmakers' prices, and lists the bets where the price looks too generous, with the reasoning written in plain English on every pick.

What you get on this page

Every upcoming AFL game with predictions across all major markets. Expand any game to see picks ranked strongest first, with probability, best odds, and the model's full reasoning. For player markets, jump to Props.

Probability Model

The model's estimated chance the outcome wins. A probability of 65% means the model thinks it wins 65 times in 100 equivalent scenarios.

Edge Value

The gap between model probability and the bookmaker's chance the price suggests from odds. A pick means the model thinks the true chance is higher than the price suggests.

Best Odds Market

The top available decimal odds at the time of calculation. Odds move — always verify at your sportsbook before placing a bet.

AFL pick types — what's on this page?

Market reference
Market What it means Best used for
Moneyline Which team wins the match outright. Simple single bet or a low-risk multi leg.
Line (Spread) Win by more than a handicap margin. When one side is expected to dominate or the game should be close.
Totals Over or under the combined match score. Weather, game pace, defensive matchups and scoring trends.
Player Props Individual stats — disposals, goals, marks. Exploit role changes, matchup edges or recent form streaks.

How to read AFL picks in 4 steps

  1. Find a game. Games are listed in chronological order. Tap "Show Picks" to expand markets and reasoning for that matchup.
  2. Check model probability. This is the model's estimated chance the outcome wins. Compare it against the chance suggested by odds to judge value yourself.
  3. Read the gap. A pick is stronger when the model's chance is clearly higher than the bookmaker's price suggests. The bigger that gap, the more the price is in your favour.
  4. Verify best odds. Odds displayed are a snapshot — always confirm at your sportsbook before placing. Line shopping across books on a strong pick makes a real difference to your long-run results.
Note: This page shows all model-generated AFL picks — the strongest plays are sorted to the top of each game. All betting involves risk — always bet within your limits.

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Data first

The model's chance, a value call, and best odds are shown for every pick — so you judge each selection on numbers rather than feel.

Monte Carlo models

20,000+ simulations per game estimate true outcome probabilities across every major AFL market, updated as odds move daily.

Responsible betting

Picks are informational only. Betting involves risk and variance. Use stake limits and only wager what you can afford to lose.

AFL Picks FAQ

Quick answers
What are AFL picks?

AFL picks are our model's call on which side to back in an AFL game. The model reads past results and the current bookmaker prices, then names the side it rates best and says why in plain words.

What is the difference between AFL picks and AFL best bets?

This page is the full list, and best bets is the short list. Picks cover every AFL game on the card across every market, while best bets keeps only the ones the model rates strongest that day.

What types of AFL picks are available?

We post AFL picks on who wins, the line, total points, and player markets like disposals and goals. Game and player markets sit together inside each match, with the strongest pick at the top.

How often are AFL picks updated?

They refresh through the day, and again whenever team news or the bookmaker prices move. Later prices carry more information, so the list you see close to start time is the one to trust.

What makes something a pick here?

A pick is named when our model rates a side better than the bookmaker's price says. The wider that gap, the higher the confidence we show, and confidence is a lean over a long run of bets, never a promise on one game.

Can I use AFL picks as legs in multi bets?

Yes, any pick on this page can be a leg in a multi. Each extra leg makes the whole bet harder to land, so two or three strong legs beat a long list. For structured multi recommendations with a combined chance shown, use the AFL Multis page.

Does Bet Better guarantee AFL picks will win?

No, and nobody can. AFL picks are our best read of what is likely, and good picks still lose, so only ever stake money you can afford to lose. If gambling is affecting your health or finances, contact the National Gambling Helpline on 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.

What time do AFL picks come out?

As soon as the day's games and prices are up. The list is rebuilt several times a day, and again close to start time when team news and prices move, so the version you see nearest kick-off is the one to read. Most of the round lands from Thursday to Sunday.

Do you pick every AFL game?

No. We only name a side when our model likes it more than the price suggests. Some games get nothing at all, and that is on purpose - a quiet day here means there was nothing worth backing, not that something is broken.

What does HIGH confidence mean?

We say it in words, not numbers. HIGH means our model likes the pick the most. LEAN means it likes it, but less. LONG-SHOT means a big price that wins less often and pays more when it lands. Confidence is how it should go over a long run of bets, never a promise on one game.

Do I have to pay to see the AFL picks?

The first pick in every game is free to read, with no signup. The rest unlock with a subscription. Either way every pick we publish is graded in public, wins and losses, on our results page.

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