Geelong Cats vs Carlton Blues: Geelong Cats -6.5 Spread (-111)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
For Geelong to cover the spread of -6.5 against Carlton, they need to win by at least seven points. Geelong has been strong at home, and with their last matchup showing a potential margin of around ten points, they have a solid chance. Carlton has done well lately, winning 8 of their last 10 games, but they have allowed a fair number of points, averaging nearly 79 against.
The risk here is that Carlton's recent success could give them confidence. They have been tough opponents, particularly in contested balls, but Geelong's home advantage and scoring ability make them the likely favorites. With the venue being the MCG, Geelong should feel right at home, and their scoring power can help push them past that spread.