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Model picks & player props
Oklahoma City Thunder
VS
Indiana Pacers

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Indiana Pacers Picks & Predictions

Model updated Jul 21, 11:18AM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

NBA
Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis
Indoor
Thu 23 Oct 2025, 11:30PM
20
Game Picks
7
Player Props
Answer
Model lean: Indiana Pacers (Moneyline)
For Oklahoma City Thunder vs Indiana Pacers (NBA), model win probability 54.9%, fair odds 1.82, book price +245, model edge +25.9%, this is your free pick — unlock every other market and all player props with Pro. Tip-off Thu 23 Oct 2025, 11:30PM at Gainbridge Fieldhouse.
Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record

Game picks

+EV edge in green
Moneyline
Indiana Pacers
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
Indiana PacersMoneylinePositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Oklahoma City ThunderPoint SpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total PointsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Oklahoma City ThunderPoint SpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total PointsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total PointsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal PointsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam Total PointsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Oklahoma City ThunderMoneylinePositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal PointsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal PointsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam Total PointsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Oklahoma City Thunder

  • Otega Oweh GDay-to-day
  • Aday Mara CDay-to-day
  • Bennett Stirtz GDay-to-day
  • Ajay Mitchell GDay-to-day
  • Thomas Sorber CDay-to-day
  • Jalen Williams GDay-to-day
  • Nikola Topic GDay-to-day

Indiana Pacers

  • Tyrese Haliburton GDay-to-day
  • Jarace Walker FDay-to-day
  • Pascal Siakam FDay-to-day
  • Ben Sheppard GDay-to-day
  • Aaron Nesmith GDay-to-day
  • T.J. McConnell GDay-to-day
  • Johnny Furphy GOut
Availability updated Jul 19, 10:56PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Oklahoma City Thunder vs Indiana Pacers: Weather isn't a tracked factor for this fixture, and 14 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Availability14 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

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Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Obi Toppin Indiana Pacers Pts + Rebs 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Chet Holmgren Oklahoma City Thunder Rebs + Asts 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Chet Holmgren Oklahoma City Thunder Double-Double 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Oklahoma City Thunder Pts + Rebs + Asts 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Luguentz Dort Oklahoma City Thunder Points 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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Betting angles

Markets & form
Total PointsOklahoma City Thunder @ Indiana PacersNo line posted

Indiana Pacers and Oklahoma City Thunder combine for their season scoring; the game total posts pre-tip.

Point SpreadIndiana Pacers spreadNo line posted

Indiana Pacers (season record) meet Oklahoma City Thunder; the spread and model cover probability refresh when the game is scheduled.

MoneylineIndiana Pacers to winNo line posted

Indiana Pacers (season record) host or visit Oklahoma City Thunder; moneyline odds and win probability refresh when the season resumes.

Team Total (Home)Indiana Pacers totalNo line posted

Indiana Pacers averaged their season scoring ahead of facing Oklahoma City Thunder; team-total lines refresh pre-game.

Team Total (Away)Oklahoma City Thunder totalNo line posted

Oklahoma City Thunder averaged their season scoring ahead of facing Indiana Pacers; team-total lines refresh pre-game.

Oklahoma City Thunder @ Indiana Pacers — model preview

<p>Expert analysis and top betting picks for Indiana Pacers vs Oklahoma City Thunder. Includes analysis on key players like Obi Toppin. Discover NBA predictions, NBA game picks, betting preview, Indiana Pacers vs Oklahoma City Thunder stats and odds.</p>

Obi Toppin (New York Knicks) Over 14.5 Points + Rebounds (-130)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

Obi Toppin's performance has been consistent, particularly in home games, which supports the bet for Over 14.5. Analyzing his last five games, he's averaged 13.6 points and 5.4 rebounds at home, totaling 19 combined points and rebounds. This is well above the Over 14.5 line set by the bookmaker. Additionally, when specifically facing the Oklahoma City Thunder at home, Toppin's combined average is 19 (13 points and 6 rebounds), again exceeding the set line. Toppin's overall and home hit rates in the last four games are both at 75% (3 out of 4 times), illustrating a strong trend towards hitting the over. These statistics suggest a strong likelihood that Toppin will surpass the 14.5 points + rebounds target in the upcoming game.

Obi Toppin (Indiana Pacers) Over 14.5 Points + Rebounds (-130)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

Obi Toppin's recent performance data suggests a reasonable chance of hitting Over 14.5 for points and rebounds combined. His average points and rebounds in the last five overall games are 11.4 and 5 respectively, totaling 16.4, which is higher than the outcome point. Furthermore, Toppin's home performance has been stronger, averaging 13.6 points and 5.4 rebounds, totaling 19. Specifically against the Oklahoma City Thunder, Toppin averages 13 points and 6 rebounds at home, a total of 19, again surpassing the outcome point. This trend is supported by his hit rate, with Toppin hitting this mark in three out of his last four games overall and at home. Therefore, the data indicates a good chance of Toppin achieving over 14.5 in points and rebounds in the upcoming game.

Chet Holmgren (Oklahoma City Thunder) Under 10.5 Rebounds + Assists (-139)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

The bet on Chet Holmgren for Under 10.5 in the Indiana Pacers vs Oklahoma City Thunder game is statistically supported by his recent performance data. On average in the last five games, Holmgren's overall rebound and assist totals are 10.6, while his totals in away games are slightly lower at 9.8. His performance specifically against the Indiana Pacers is also lower, with an average of 9.8 rebounds and 0.8 assists in away games. This downward trend in his performance, especially in away games and against this specific opponent, indicates a high likelihood that he will not exceed the 10.5 total in the upcoming game. The hit rate for this outcome in the last 12 games is 75%, and it's 60% in the last five away games, further supporting the under bet.

Luguentz Dort (Oklahoma City Thunder) Under 10.5 Points (-132)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

The bet on Luguentz Dort to score under 10.5 points in the game against the Indiana Pacers is substantiated by a number of key statistics. Firstly, Dort's performance in the last five games shows an average score of 7.8 points, both overall and against this specific opponent. Notably, this average drops even further to 6.2 points when we consider only away games. While his average score against the Pacers in away games is slightly higher at 11.2, it's still close to the line set for this bet. Furthermore, Dort's expected stat value for this match is 9.07, which is substantially under the 10.5 threshold. His under bet has also been successful in the last four games overall and in 10 out of the last 11 away games, indicating a strong trend towards lower scoring performances.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Oklahoma City Thunder) Under 44.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-120)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The bet on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander for Under 44.5 in the Indiana Pacers vs Oklahoma City Thunder game is supported by his recent performance stats. In the last five games, his average points, rebounds, and assists total just 38 (28 points, 4.4 rebounds, 5.6 assists), which is significantly lower than the Outcome Point of 44.5. This trend continues in away games, with his combined average even lower at 36.4. Furthermore, when facing the Pacers, his average total is 38 (28 points, 4.4 rebounds, 5.6 assists), and even at away games against the Pacers, his highest combination is just 42.6 (32.8 points, 6.2 rebounds, 3.6 assists). These statistics indicate a lower likelihood of Gilgeous-Alexander reaching a combined point, rebound, and assist total of 44.5, supporting the Under bet.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Oklahoma City Thunder) Over 1.5 Threes Made (-167)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

The bet on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to make over 1.5 three-point field goals in the game against Indiana Pacers is driven by his recent performance in away games. On average, he has made 1.2 three-point field goals in the last five away games, which is close to our target of over 1.5. Furthermore, when looking at his performance against the Pacers specifically, he has also averaged 1.2 three-point field goals in the last five away games. This suggests consistency in his three-point shooting, particularly when playing away from home. Although his overall average three-point field goals made is slightly lower (0.8), his performance in away games and against this specific opponent supports the bet. Therefore, the data indicates a favorable chance for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to make over 1.5 three-point field goals in this game.

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
2
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult
23 Oct 25 Team Total Points Under 129.5 ✗ MISS
23 Oct 25 Moneyline Indiana Pacers ✗ MISS

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Oklahoma City Thunder vs Indiana Pacers in the NBA. The most recent or upcoming game is scheduled for Thursday 23 October 2025 at Gainbridge Fieldhouse. The model has generated 20 game picks and 7 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your NBA betting strategy for this matchup.

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