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Model picks & player props
Boston Celtics
VS
Oklahoma City Thunder

Boston Celtics vs Oklahoma City Thunder Picks & Predictions

Model updated Jul 21, 11:17AM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

NBA
Paycom Center, Oklahoma City
Indoor
Fri 13 Mar 2026, 1:30AM
13
Game Picks
9
Player Props
Answer
Model lean: Over 101.5 (Team Total Points)
For Boston Celtics vs Oklahoma City Thunder (NBA), model win probability 91.9%, fair odds 1.09, book price -588, model edge +6.5%, this is your free pick — unlock every other market and all player props with Pro. Tip-off Fri 13 Mar 2026, 1:30AM at Paycom Center.
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Game picks

+EV edge in green
Team Total Points
Over
101.5
+ 12 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
OverTeam Total PointsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Boston Celtics

  • Chris Cenac Jr. FDay-to-day
  • Dillon Mitchell FDay-to-day
  • Hugo Gonzalez GDay-to-day
  • Jayson Tatum FDay-to-day

Oklahoma City Thunder

  • Otega Oweh GDay-to-day
  • Aday Mara CDay-to-day
  • Bennett Stirtz GDay-to-day
  • Ajay Mitchell GDay-to-day
  • Thomas Sorber CDay-to-day
  • Jalen Williams GDay-to-day
  • Nikola Topic GDay-to-day
Availability updated Jul 19, 10:56PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Boston Celtics vs Oklahoma City Thunder: Weather isn't a tracked factor for this fixture, and 11 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Availability11 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

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Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Cason Wallace Oklahoma City Thunder Assists 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Isaiah Joe Oklahoma City Thunder Rebounds 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Cason Wallace Oklahoma City Thunder Pts + Asts 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Oklahoma City Thunder Rebs + Asts 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Cason Wallace Oklahoma City Thunder Pts + Rebs + Asts 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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Betting angles

Markets & form
Total PointsBoston Celtics @ Oklahoma City ThunderNo line posted

Oklahoma City Thunder and Boston Celtics combine for their season scoring; the game total posts pre-tip.

Point SpreadOklahoma City Thunder spreadNo line posted

Oklahoma City Thunder (season record) meet Boston Celtics; the spread and model cover probability refresh when the game is scheduled.

MoneylineOklahoma City Thunder to winNo line posted

Oklahoma City Thunder (season record) host or visit Boston Celtics; moneyline odds and win probability refresh when the season resumes.

Team Total (Home)Oklahoma City Thunder totalNo line posted

Oklahoma City Thunder averaged their season scoring ahead of facing Boston Celtics; team-total lines refresh pre-game.

Team Total (Away)Boston Celtics totalNo line posted

Boston Celtics averaged their season scoring ahead of facing Oklahoma City Thunder; team-total lines refresh pre-game.

Boston Celtics @ Oklahoma City Thunder — model preview

<p>Winning bets for Oklahoma City Thunder vs Boston Celtics? We break down odds and insights. Includes analysis on key players like Chet Holmgren. Explore NBA predictions, NBA game picks, betting preview, Oklahoma City Thunder vs Boston Celtics stats and odds.</p>

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Boston Celtics : Oklahoma City Thunder Over 101.5 Team Total Points (-667)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

The Oklahoma City Thunder have been playing some high-scoring basketball lately, which is why this bet looks enticing. Despite our models predicting a slightly lower score, the Thunder have been surpassing expectations, often topping 101.5 points. Historically, they've shown an ability to put up big numbers, especially when playing on home soil. The Celtics, on the other hand, have been struggling defensively on the road, which could see the Thunder capitalizing on their weak defense and exploiting any gaps. Considering the Thunder's scoring prowess and the Celtics' defensive shortcomings, it's easy to see why a bet on the Thunder to score over 101.5 points has great potential. It's a case of current form and historical performance data combining to suggest a higher probability of the Thunder breaking the 101.5 point barrier.

Chet Holmgren (Oklahoma City Thunder) Under 36.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-1250)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

When it comes to Chet Holmgren's performance against the Boston Celtics, the numbers tell a compelling story that leans toward the under on his combined points, rebounds, and assists. Although he's been a bright spot for the Oklahoma City Thunder, his recent averages don't support a high total. Over his last five games, he's amassed just 13 points and 10 rebounds, with a mere 0.6 assists per game. At home, those averages dip slightly, reflecting the pressure that comes with playing in front of a packed arena. Historically, against the Celtics, he's averaged 14 points and 8.3 rebounds, hardly approaching the lofty 36.5 mark. With an impressive 20-for-20 hit rate recently, it seems Holmgren thrives under specific conditions, but this game against Boston might not be one of them. The under presents a sound opportunity here, given the context and stats.

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
0
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Boston Celtics vs Oklahoma City Thunder in the NBA. The most recent or upcoming game is scheduled for Friday 13 March 2026 at Paycom Center. The model has generated 13 game picks and 9 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your NBA betting strategy for this matchup.

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