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Model picks & player props
Indiana Pacers
VS
Washington Wizards

Indiana Pacers vs Washington Wizards Picks & Predictions

Model updated Jul 21, 11:17AM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

NBA
Capital One Arena, Washington
Indoor
Sat 21 Feb 2026, 12:00AM
20
Game Picks
4
Player Props
Answer
Model lean: Indiana Pacers 1 (Point Spread)
For Indiana Pacers vs Washington Wizards (NBA), model win probability 82.5%, fair odds 1.21, book price -112, model edge +29.5%, this is your free pick — unlock every other market and all player props with Pro. Tip-off Sat 21 Feb 2026, 12:00AM at Capital One Arena.
Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record

Game picks

+EV edge in green
Point Spread
Indiana Pacers
-2.5
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
Indiana PacersPoint SpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Indiana PacersPoint SpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Indiana PacersPoint SpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Indiana PacersMoneylinePositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Indiana PacersPoint SpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Indiana PacersPoint SpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Indiana PacersPoint SpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total PointsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam Total PointsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Indiana Pacers

  • Tyrese Haliburton GDay-to-day
  • Jarace Walker FDay-to-day
  • Pascal Siakam FDay-to-day
  • Ben Sheppard GDay-to-day
  • Aaron Nesmith GDay-to-day
  • T.J. McConnell GDay-to-day
  • Johnny Furphy GOut

Washington Wizards

  • Jamir Watkins GDay-to-day
  • Will Riley GDay-to-day
  • Tre Johnson GDay-to-day
  • AJ Dybantsa FDay-to-day
  • Alex Sarr CDay-to-day
  • Anthony Davis FDay-to-day
  • Trae Young GDay-to-day
  • Cam Whitmore FDay-to-day
  • Tristan Vukcevic FDay-to-day
Availability updated Jul 19, 1:00AM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Indiana Pacers vs Washington Wizards: Weather isn't a tracked factor for this fixture, and 16 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Availability16 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

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Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Ben Sheppard Indiana Pacers Pts + Rebs + Asts 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Aaron Nesmith Indiana Pacers Assists 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Kyshawn George Washington Wizards Rebs + Asts 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Andrew Nembhard Indiana Pacers Steals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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Betting angles

Markets & form
Total PointsIndiana Pacers @ Washington WizardsNo line posted

Washington Wizards and Indiana Pacers combine for their season scoring; the game total posts pre-tip.

Point SpreadWashington Wizards spreadNo line posted

Washington Wizards (season record) meet Indiana Pacers; the spread and model cover probability refresh when the game is scheduled.

MoneylineWashington Wizards to winNo line posted

Washington Wizards (season record) host or visit Indiana Pacers; moneyline odds and win probability refresh when the season resumes.

Team Total (Home)Washington Wizards totalNo line posted

Washington Wizards averaged their season scoring ahead of facing Indiana Pacers; team-total lines refresh pre-game.

Team Total (Away)Indiana Pacers totalNo line posted

Indiana Pacers averaged their season scoring ahead of facing Washington Wizards; team-total lines refresh pre-game.

Indiana Pacers @ Washington Wizards — model preview

<p>Winning bets for Washington Wizards vs Indiana Pacers? We break down odds and insights. Includes analysis on key players like Aaron Nesmith. Explore NBA predictions, NBA game picks, betting preview, Washington Wizards vs Indiana Pacers stats and odds.</p>

Aaron Nesmith (Indiana Pacers) Under 2.5 Assists (-200)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

Aaron Nesmith's recent performance supports a bet for Under 2.5 assists in the upcoming game against the Washington Wizards. His average assists for the last five overall games is 1.2, which drops to just 0.4 when playing away. This trend is consistent even against the Wizards, with his average assists at 0.8 overall and 1.6 when playing at an away venue. Furthermore, Nesmith's expected stat value is only 1.14, significantly lower than the outcome point of 2.5. The data also shows a strong hit rate, with 13 out of the last 14 overall bets and all 11 of his last away bets hitting the under. This strong historical performance, coupled with his lower assist averages, indicates a good chance of Nesmith not surpassing 2.5 assists in the match.

Kyshawn George (Washington Wizards) Under 9.5 Rebounds + Assists (-147)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

Based on the given statistics, this bet is informed by Kyshawn George's historical performance data. Specifically, George's average of combined rebounds and assists per game is below the bet's outcome point of 9.5. Considering his last five home games, George has averaged 5.6 rebounds and 4.4 assists, adding up to exactly 10. However, his average rebounds and assists against the Pacers - the upcoming opponent - drops to 6 and 2.7 respectively, totaling 8.7. This suggests that George typically performs under the 9.5 point threshold when facing the Pacers. Furthermore, the overall and home hit rates, indicating the frequency at which George's performance falls under this outcome point, are 8/11 and 16/20 respectively. This strong historical underperformance against the 9.5 point threshold, especially against this opponent, supports the under bet.

Andrew Nembhard (Indiana Pacers) Over 0.5 Steals (-238)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The bet on Andrew Nembhard for Over 0.5 steals in the game between the Washington Wizards and Indiana Pacers is supported by several key statistics. Firstly, Nembhard's overall average for steals in the last five games is 1.2, and when he plays away, this increases to 1.4. This indicates that he regularly performs above the 0.5 steals threshold, especially in away games. Moreover, Nembhard's hit rate over the last 17 games is impressive at 13/17, which further supports the likelihood of him achieving over 0.5 steals in this game. Lastly, although his average steals against the opponent at away games is exactly 0.5, the general trend of his recent performance, along with his higher away steals average, suggests he has a strong chance of exceeding this mark. Therefore, the statistical data implies a rational basis for this bet.

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
7
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult
21 Feb 26 Moneyline Indiana Pacers ✗ MISS
21 Feb 26 Point Spread Indiana Pacers -2.5 ✗ MISS
20 Feb 26 Moneyline Indiana Pacers ✗ MISS
20 Feb 26 Point Spread Indiana Pacers -3.5 ✗ MISS
20 Feb 26 Point Spread Indiana Pacers -4.5 ✗ MISS
20 Feb 26 Team Total Points Over 108.5 ✗ MISS
20 Feb 26 Team Total Points Under 126.5 ✓ HIT

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Indiana Pacers vs Washington Wizards in the NBA. The most recent or upcoming game is scheduled for Saturday 21 February 2026 at Capital One Arena. The model has generated 20 game picks and 4 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your NBA betting strategy for this matchup.

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