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Model picks & player props
New Orleans Pelicans
VS
Oklahoma City Thunder

New Orleans Pelicans vs Oklahoma City Thunder Picks & Predictions

Model updated Jul 21, 11:20AM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

NBA
3
Game Picks
0
Player Props
Answer
Model lean: Under 118.5 (Team Total Points)
For New Orleans Pelicans vs Oklahoma City Thunder (NBA), model win probability 92.4%, fair odds 1.08, book price -588, model edge +6.9%, this is your free pick — unlock every other market and all player props with Pro.
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Game picks

+EV edge in green
Team Total Points
Under
118.5
+ 2 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
UnderTeam Total PointsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam Total PointsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Oklahoma City ThunderMoneylinePositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

New Orleans Pelicans

  • Micah Peavy GDay-to-day
  • Karlo Matkovic FDay-to-day
  • Zion Williamson FDay-to-day
  • Dejounte Murray GDay-to-day
  • Trey Murphy III FDay-to-day
  • Yves Missi CDay-to-day
  • Bryce McGowens GDay-to-day

Oklahoma City Thunder

  • Otega Oweh GDay-to-day
  • Aday Mara CDay-to-day
  • Bennett Stirtz GDay-to-day
  • Ajay Mitchell GDay-to-day
  • Thomas Sorber CDay-to-day
  • Jalen Williams GDay-to-day
  • Nikola Topic GDay-to-day
Availability updated Jul 19, 10:56PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For New Orleans Pelicans vs Oklahoma City Thunder: Weather isn't a tracked factor for this fixture, and 14 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Availability14 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

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Betting angles

Markets & form
Total PointsNew Orleans Pelicans @ Oklahoma City ThunderNo line posted

Oklahoma City Thunder and New Orleans Pelicans combine for their season scoring; the game total posts pre-tip.

Point SpreadOklahoma City Thunder spreadNo line posted

Oklahoma City Thunder (season record) meet New Orleans Pelicans; the spread and model cover probability refresh when the game is scheduled.

MoneylineOklahoma City Thunder to winNo line posted

Oklahoma City Thunder (season record) host or visit New Orleans Pelicans; moneyline odds and win probability refresh when the season resumes.

Team Total (Home)Oklahoma City Thunder totalNo line posted

Oklahoma City Thunder averaged their season scoring ahead of facing New Orleans Pelicans; team-total lines refresh pre-game.

Team Total (Away)New Orleans Pelicans totalNo line posted

New Orleans Pelicans averaged their season scoring ahead of facing Oklahoma City Thunder; team-total lines refresh pre-game.

New Orleans Pelicans @ Oklahoma City Thunder — model preview

<p>Winning bets for Oklahoma City Thunder vs New Orleans Pelicans? We break down odds and insights. Featuring picks like NA props. Explore same game parlay, SGP picks, NBA parlay odds.</p>

Oklahoma City Thunder vs New Orleans Pelicans : Oklahoma City Thunder win (-769)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

The Oklahoma City Thunder has a strong advantage on their home court, scoring an average of 119.6 points per game in their last five home games, compared to the New Orleans Pelicans' average of 115.8 points in their last five away games. Although the Thunder's recent record against the Pelicans is unfavorable (1-3), their superior scoring on home ground suggests they have the potential to turn the tables. Furthermore, their overall recent scoring average (117.8) is higher than the Pelicans' (116.8), indicating a consistent high-performance level. This data suggests that the Thunder are likely to capitalize on their home advantage and outscore the Pelicans, making a bet on the Thunder a promising choice.

Oklahoma City Thunder vs New Orleans Pelicans : New Orleans Pelicans Under 118.5 Team Total Points (-588)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

The bet on 'New Orleans Pelicans Under 118.5' is statistically driven. The model prediction of 102.9 points for the Pelicans is significantly under the set total of 118.5 points. This is reinforced by the Pelicans' recent performance. Over their last five games, both home and away, their average score has been below the outcome point, at 116.8 and 115.8 points respectively. Additionally, the average score of their opponents in the last five away games has been 104.2, further indicating a trend towards lower scoring games. Therefore, based on the model prediction and recent performance trends, there's a strong likelihood that the Pelicans will score under 118.5 points, making this bet a sensible choice.

Oklahoma City Thunder vs New Orleans Pelicans : Oklahoma City Thunder Over 111.5 Team Total Points (-556)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

The statistical data indicates that Oklahoma City Thunder has a strong scoring record, especially at home. Over their last five games, their overall team score is 117.8 points, which is significantly higher than the suggested betting line of 111.5 points. Even more impressive is their home score record, with an average of 119.6 points over the last five home games. Despite the model prediction being lower at 102.9, the Thunder's recent scoring performance is a strong indication that they have the capability to exceed the total of 111.5 points. Additionally, the Thunder's home record is positive at 3-2, suggesting they perform well on their home court. Therefore, betting on 'Oklahoma City Thunder Over 111.5' is a good choice.

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
0
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for New Orleans Pelicans vs Oklahoma City Thunder in the NBA. The model has generated 3 game picks for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your NBA betting strategy for this matchup.

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