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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Luguentz Dort is Over 14.5 on Points + Rebounds.
On the Points + Rebounds market the model assigns a model win probability of 40%, versus the book's implied 22%, for a model edge of +17.9%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NBA schedule.
Model updated Aug 11, 7:13AM UTC
NBA

Luguentz Dort

Oklahoma City Thunder

+17.9% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Pts + Rebs Over 14.5 +345 (4.45) · $100→$445
+17.9% Edge
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Los Angeles Clippers
Intuit Dome, Inglewood, CA · Indoor
Thu 9 Apr, 2:00AM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
40.4%
Implied Probability
22.5%
Model Edge
+17.9%
Predicted Value
12.8 Pts + Rebs

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Pts + Rebs40.4%22.5%2.47+17.9%

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AI Analysis

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Luguentz Dort (Oklahoma City Thunder) Over 14.5 Points + Rebounds (+345)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Thunder gear up to face the Clippers, all eyes should be on Luguentz Dort, especially with the Over on his combined points and rebounds set at 14.5. Now, while his recent averages-9.8 points and 2 rebounds over the last five-might not scream "bet me," Dort's ability to elevate his game against tougher opponents is what makes this intriguing. Historically, he has averaged about 10 points per game against the Clippers, and when playing away, that number nudges up slightly. Moreover, Dort's rebounding prowess has seen an uptick on the road, hitting around 4 boards against this same opponent. Given that he's connected on 8 of his last 19 away games for this prop, there's a narrative unfolding here. With the Clippers' defense focused on other scoring threats, Dort could find those extra opportunities to surpass that 14.5 mark.

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Pick History & Track Record

Luguentz Dort — 2024-25 season averages

Over 81 games in the 2024-25 season, Luguentz Dort averaged 9.8 points, 4.1 rebounds and 1.5 assists in 29.2 minutes per game, shooting 42.1% from the field and 39.2% from three-point range.

9.8
PPG
4.1
RPG
1.5
APG
1.0
SPG
0.6
BPG
29.2
MPG
42.1%
FG%
39.2%
3P%

Luguentz Dort — recent role

Across his last 5 games, Luguentz Dort has played 27.6 minutes per game and started 100% of them.

27.6
MPG (L5)
9.4
PPG (L5)
100%
Started

Luguentz Dort — points hit rate

Luguentz Dort has scored over 11.5 points in 51% of 156 career games.

o11.551%
o12.549%
o15.531%
o20.515%
o25.510%

Luguentz Dort — home vs away scoring

At home Luguentz Dort averages 11.3 points per game; on the road, 8.0. Worth checking against tonight's points line.

11.3
PPG at home
8.0
PPG on the road

Luguentz Dort — scoring by opponent

Luguentz Dort scores most against the BKN, averaging 14.9 points per game in that matchup.

14.9
BKN
14.2
BOS
13.9
ATL
13.8
LAC
13.7
SAC
13.3
LAL

Luguentz Dort — last 10 games

Over his last 10 games, Luguentz Dort has averaged 9.0 points, 3.5 rebounds and 0.9 assists.

DateOppMinPtsRebAst
13 Mayvs DEN281231
11 May@ DEN19620
9 May@ DEN34343
7 Mayvs DEN271210
5 Mayvs DEN301421
26 Apr@ MEM28420
24 Apr@ MEM35260
22 Aprvs MEM33890
20 Aprvs MEM221232
8 Aprvs LAL311732
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Luguentz Dort (Oklahoma City Thunder) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NBA player prop betting. The latest model pick for Luguentz Dort is Over 14.5 on Points + Rebounds. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +17.9% on this pick. Their next game is Oklahoma City Thunder vs Los Angeles Clippers on Thursday 9 April at Intuit Dome, Inglewood. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NBA betting strategy.

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