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The latest Bet Better model pick for Luguentz Dort is Over 14.5 on Pts + Rebs.
On the Pts + Rebs market the model assigns a model win probability of 40%, versus the book's implied 22%, for a model edge of +17.9%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NBA schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 2:08PM UTC
NBA

Luguentz Dort

Oklahoma City Thunder

+17.9% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Pts + Rebs Over 14.5 +345 (4.45)
+17.9% Edge
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Los Angeles Clippers
Intuit Dome, Inglewood, CA · Indoor
Thu 9 Apr, 2:00AM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
40.4%
Implied Probability
22.5%
Model Edge
+17.9%
Predicted Value
12.8 Pts + Rebs

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Pts + Rebs40.4%—22.5%2.47+17.9%

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AI Analysis

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Luguentz Dort (Oklahoma City Thunder) Over 14.5 Points + Rebounds (+345)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Thunder gear up to face the Clippers, all eyes should be on Luguentz Dort, especially with the Over on his combined points and rebounds set at 14.5. Now, while his recent averages-9.8 points and 2 rebounds over the last five-might not scream "bet me," Dort's ability to elevate his game against tougher opponents is what makes this intriguing. Historically, he has averaged about 10 points per game against the Clippers, and when playing away, that number nudges up slightly. Moreover, Dort's rebounding prowess has seen an uptick on the road, hitting around 4 boards against this same opponent. Given that he's connected on 8 of his last 19 away games for this prop, there's a narrative unfolding here. With the Clippers' defense focused on other scoring threats, Dort could find those extra opportunities to surpass that 14.5 mark.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 3 of last 5(60%)

Betting angles

Markets & form
3-Pointers Made2024-25 · formNo line posted
70%hit · L10
2.3avg · last 10
L52.4Szn2.3Home2.9Away1.6Best8
1+80%
2+62%
3+42%
4+26%
Game log vs O 1.5avg 2.3 · hi 5 · lo 0
5420042024

Luguentz Dort is averaging 2.3 3-pointers made over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 2.3, best 8). He clears 2+ in 62% of 2024-25 games.

Points2024-25 · formNo line posted
50%hit · L10
9.0avg · last 10
L59.4Szn9.8Home11.3Away8.0Best42
5+79%
10+48%
15+20%
20+7%
Game log vs O 9.5avg 9 · hi 17 · lo 2
171282414123612

Luguentz Dort is averaging 9.0 points over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 9.8, best 42). He clears 10+ in 48% of 2024-25 games.

Points + Assists2024-25 · formNo line posted
50%hit · L10
9.9avg · last 10
L510.4Szn11.3Home12.8Away9.6Best45
1+100%
6+83%
11+53%
16+22%
21+10%
Game log vs O 10.5avg 9.9 · hi 19 · lo 2
191482415126613

Luguentz Dort is averaging 9.9 points + assists over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 11.3, best 45). He clears 11+ in 53% of 2024-25 games.

Points + Rebounds2024-25 · formNo line posted
50%hit · L10
12.5avg · last 10
L511.8Szn13.9Home15.3Away12.4Best49
4+96%
9+77%
14+48%
19+25%
24+10%
Game log vs O 13.5avg 12.5 · hi 20 · lo 6
2015178616137815

Luguentz Dort is averaging 12.5 points + rebounds over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 13.9, best 49). He clears 14+ in 48% of 2024-25 games.

Pts + Reb + Ast2024-25 · formNo line posted
50%hit · L10
13.4avg · last 10
L512.8Szn15.5Home16.7Away14.0Best52
5+98%
10+79%
15+52%
20+28%
25+14%
Game log vs O 14.5avg 13.4 · hi 22 · lo 6
22171786171310816

Luguentz Dort is averaging 13.4 pts + reb + ast over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 15.5, best 52). He clears 15+ in 52% of 2024-25 games.

Rebounds2024-25 · formNo line posted
3.5avg · last 10
L52.4Szn4.1Home3.9Away4.4Best12
2+91%
4+53%
6+27%
8+9%
Game log vs O 3.5avg 3.5 · hi 9 · lo 1
3396221423

Luguentz Dort is averaging 3.5 rebounds over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 4.1, best 12). He clears 4+ in 53% of 2024-25 games.

Rebounds + Assists2024-25 · formNo line posted
4.4avg · last 10
L53.4Szn5.6Home5.3Away6.0Best15
3+89%
6+49%
9+16%
12+2%
Game log vs O 5.5avg 4.4 · hi 9 · lo 1
5596231724

Luguentz Dort is averaging 4.4 rebounds + assists over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 5.6, best 15). He clears 6+ in 49% of 2024-25 games.

Steals2024-25 · formNo line posted
50%hit · L10
0.8avg · last 10
L50.4Szn1.0Home1.0Away1.1Best6
1+62%
2+28%
3+11%
Game log vs O 0.5avg 0.8 · hi 3 · lo 0
2301011000

Luguentz Dort is averaging 0.8 steals over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 1.0, best 6). He clears 1+ in 62% of 2024-25 games.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
08 Apr 26 Oklahoma City Thunder @ Los Angeles Lakers Pts + Rebs 12.5 Over +178 ✗ MISS
05 Apr 26 Utah Jazz @ Oklahoma City Thunder Pts + Rebs 9.5 Over -109 ✓ HIT
05 Apr 26 Utah Jazz @ Oklahoma City Thunder Pts + Rebs 14.5 Over +372 ✗ MISS
25 Mar 26 Oklahoma City Thunder @ Boston Celtics Pts + Rebs — — — Pending
25 Mar 26 Oklahoma City Thunder @ Boston Celtics Pts + Rebs — — — Pending
25 Mar 26 Oklahoma City Thunder @ Boston Celtics Pts + Rebs — — — Pending

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About This Player

Luguentz Dort (Oklahoma City Thunder) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NBA player prop betting. The latest model pick for Luguentz Dort is Over 14.5 on Pts + Rebs. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +17.9% on this pick. Their next game is Oklahoma City Thunder vs Los Angeles Clippers on Thursday 9 April at Intuit Dome, Inglewood. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NBA betting strategy.

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